Flopping top set and getting KILLED!

[DimensionPresident]

I have to vent a bit. This boggles my mind that it has happened 4 times in my last 4 tournys. All have been at the final table in a multi table tournament.

Flop comes and I hit the top set. Each time there's been two or three guys in. The latest one I checked, guy bet about 25% of average chip stack. Another player called. I go all in. I get a call and am beat by a flush on the river.

Another time I made a huge bet after the flop to try to push out flush draws. That didn't work. Got called beat by a flush on the turn that time.

I've tried both ways, and my sets keep getting killed by a flush. I have no idea what to do? Should I just never raise and call till the end? Anytime I bet, no matter how much, I get called by the flush draws.

[Bad Beat Story Detector]

Alert! Alert! Alert!
The preceeding post is merely a bad beat story disguised as a tournament strategy question. Please disregard as to not encourage this behavior any further. Thank you for your time.

[Cleveland Guy]

Top set is about 3-1 vs. a naked flush.

Keep pushing and hoping you get called. Don't mistake short term odds for the long term right play.

[DimensionPresident]

Funny. Nice name.

If I really wanted to post a bad beat story I would be more specific, and maybe even use icons like these /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif , but I am honestly wondering what I should do.

These are tournaments and these hands are sending me packing.

Or maybe I am just playing with maniacs who are willing to risk their stacks to hit their flush on the turn or river?

Is this a play anyone here would make? Say you have Ax suited in your hand and the flop has two of your suit. Would you risk a lot of your chips (or go all in) to hit your flush on the last two cards?

[Cleveland Guy]

On the first one - since he had already bet 25% of the pot, and there was another caller, if he had you covered, depending on how much of his stack it was - he might have had the odds to call. Hard to know without knowing actualy bets, pot sizes, blinds. etc.

The second- that's a tough call, unless he has you way outchipped, where he is risking very little of his chips.

[fnurt]

If you are consistently getting all of your money in with the nuts on the flop, you don't need our help. Sometimes cards happen.

[PokerNeal]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to vent a bit. This boggles my mind that it has happened 4 times in my last 4 tournys. All have been at the final table in a multi table tournament.

Flop comes and I hit the top set. Each time there's been two or three guys in. The latest one I checked, guy bet about 25% of average chip stack. Another player called. I go all in. I get a call and am beat by a flush on the river.

Another time I made a huge bet after the flop to try to push out flush draws. That didn't work. Got called beat by a flush on the turn that time.

I've tried both ways, and my sets keep getting killed by a flush. I have no idea what to do? Should I just never raise and call till the end? Anytime I bet, no matter how much, I get called by the flush draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

You just had a bad run of luck. Has happened to the best of us. You did nothing wrong. By the time you read this post you probably have won a couple of tourneys doing the very same plays...

[DimensionPresident]

Thanks for the encouragement.

What would be the standard way (if there is one) to play a set on the flop when there is also two suited cards on the flop?

Do you push and try to fold draws?
Do you not push and just make a "big bet" to try to fold draws?
Do you play more conservative and wait to see if the flush draw comes on turn or river... and fold if another player pushes in on you?

[SossMan]

You do whatever the hell you can to get all the chips in the middle. YOU HAVE TOP SET! GET CHIPS IN THE MIDDLE AND LET FATE TAKE OVER FROM THERE. VERY OFTEN THEY WILL BE DRAWING TO RUNNER RUNNER QUADS!!

[DimensionPresident]

Believe me, that's what went through my head for awhile until I started to get burned on the hand. Isn't the percentage for another suited card to hit on the turn or river like 35%?

So I only have a 65% of making it through without the possibility of losing to a flush. I am starting to think that slow playing the hand to see what the turn and river are might be best. 65% is good, but when you're at the final table of a tournmanet, it may not be best to risk your entire stack on if you can do so without pushing on the flop...

This is getting me paranoid. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Officer Farva]

65%?

What about the probablity of the board pairing?

It closer to 70%, depending on what draws the guy has.

And who's too good for a 65% favorite?

[fnurt]

A set is about 75-25 against a flush draw. Remember that you can improve to a full house.

[SossMan]

I don't know how you ever made it to 4 final tables in a row, but you should be able to imply that if they are calling you with naked flush draws then they will certainly be calling you with top pair and two pair hands (where they are drawing mary-kate thin)

[PokerNeal]

Yes, you can improve to a full house from a set with 2 more cards to come and you are the favorite to win this hand against a flush draw.

When all is said and done, remember that Poker is gambling. It is not skill alone. You need luck. By being the odds-on favorite you are giving lady luck a better chance to come through for you.

You refer to the final table and say how you could lose your position by playing aggressively even when you are the odds-on favorite. This then begs the question. Are you at the final table to place as high as possible or win the tourney? If it is to win the tourney you have to take the chance and push your chips in. If not, you can play conservatively and you will get a place (instead of the #1 spot).

[david050173]

Sounds to me like the flush draws are getting decent odds (if 2 other players are going all in front of them) to call. If they still have enough chips to play after calling you it is probably a good move on thier part.
One way I can think of discouraging the flush draw in this case is not to bet the river. You are then giving a free card so if the flush comes you have to lay down. But if it doesn't come you can bet the turn and since he only has 1 card to come, he might be more likely to pass on the flush draw. I can't imagine that is a EV postive move. You need to encourage flush draws to fold and if they call you have to take your chances.

[Officer Farva]

Why do the newbies always make posts about their lame bad beats? Do they think it will make us like them?

[DimensionPresident]

The bad beat thing was already covered in this thread. Read up a few, Officer.

I was genuinely looking for different ways to play this hand in this situation. Some people have been kind enough to offer their opinions, and I thank them for that.

Luckily my life is just complete enough that looking for acceptance on a random message board isn't something even remotely crossing my mind... yet.

Maybe one day my four aces will get beat by five and I will sink so deep into depression that winning over message board buddies will be high on the to-do list. But for now, not so much.