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11-05-2001, 06:12 AM
I trying to understand the true phenomenon of "running bad." Lucky for me, I currently getting good cards. Most people talk about "running bad." I would agree with Mike D's post (in the archives) which claims that most of these people are actually playing poorly. It is my understanding that you can actually "run bad" or have a prolonged losing streak.

Which of the following describes what "running bad" actually means?


A) Let's say you've been beating a $20-40 game for $40 and hour over 1000+ hours. If, for a 3 month period, you found yourself only winning $10-15 per hour, would this mean that you were running badly for that three month period?

B) Same situation. If you're truly running badly, can you even win any money? If you played excellent poker, but were getting poor cards, would you instead break even for that three month period, or could you lose $40/hour for a long period of time?


Here is another question: How would one's sessions look in a 3 month period of "running bad(ly)?" Would you get lots of good hands and just get sucked out every hand? Would you have a few wins, but just lose most of the other sessions?


I'm trying to understand this phenomenon because I always fear that the next time I play, I will begin a ridiculous losing streak. I try to play my best game everytime I go to the card room, yet I wonder if I've just been getting lucky for the last 9 weeks that I've started playing again.


Any comments or thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks,

Ted

11-05-2001, 07:12 AM
Running bad is simply being in a prolonged period of having results that are way worse then what they should be. If you usually win say 1/2 BB per hour, running bad would probably be something like losing at a rate of maybe 1/2 BB per hour for like 2 months (that would be running REALLY bad IMO). Usually people only refer to running bad when they are losing but then again if you go like 7or8 months of breaking even and you should be a BB per hour winner then this too would be considered running bad.

11-05-2001, 07:43 AM
I think that there's a difference between running bad and playing bad. As someone who has done both, I can say that it is not always easy to tell the difference. Running good can lead to even more inspired play and running bad can lead to deterioration, for me atleast. At the end of last year I ran bad, and out of frustration and ego my play got somewhat sloppy(played too many hands and pushed some hands too hard in games that didn't warrant it), it took months to realize how sloppy I had become, but only days to make a few corrections that lead to drastic improvements in my results which have continued for months. What's most important, is to play at limits within your bankroll and to constantly and painstakingly examine one's own play, striving to improve and never(or as little as humanly possible) backslide.


Mike

11-05-2001, 11:34 AM
Part of the haziness of "running bad" comes from the non-specific time frame. Looking at the shortest, it's not uncommon or faulty usage for a player to be thought of as "running bad" because he lost a few big pots on the river in the last hour or so, even though he's up good for the day and the week and the month. Likewise, a player can kill a game during a months-long losing streak. In his mind, he's still running bad. In his opponent's mind, he's running good.


"I think that there's a difference between running bad and playing bad."


But let's say a player really does play his A+ game for 100 hours or whatever and gets crushed. Finally he succumbs to the mental burden and starts playing bad. Couldn't we say that the act of playing bad is a subset of the more general concept "running bad," simply because the bad play was caused by the bad running?


My experience is that when I run really bad for a really long time, I'm playing my B and C games more often than usual. Let's say I go a few days where every good flop and every big pair gets beat. The second I start feeling that "Oh woe is me" thing, that's the telltale sign that I'm off my game.


Tommy

11-05-2001, 12:10 PM
interesting....it is hard to define....hard to quantify


running bad can be for various lengths of time. it is not uncommon to be in a game in which you observe that one of the players is running bad..you may have even acted on this, I know that I have


and yes, it can and does cause bad playin...desperate people do desperate things!! hard to control


but back to Bullheads question, to him I saw that you will know it when you get there!!!!

11-05-2001, 03:24 PM
Jellow,

It's funny that you say that I'll know when I'm running bad when I get there. I'm wondering if I was running bad earlier. For my first two months back, I was getting poor results. I was up like $1200 in the $20-40 for the two months period. That isn't too bad, but not good enough to try to play for a living. I realized that I was out of practice and not playing that great. In the last few weeks, I've been getting pretty godo cards and winning almost every day. I'm afraid I'm just getting lucky now even though I'm playing better.

I find it interesting that my cards do seem to be better, though. I remember being in Vegas three weeks ago. My friend was winning every day and he couldn't believe that I kept losing or breaking even. I was trying to bet the $30-60 game. I remember often sitting there for a long time and not getting any hands. Then I would get KK or something like that, and get sucked out. Of course, I would win a few hands here and there, butI was stuck most of the time. Finally, I went on fire this one day and ever since then I've been winning.

I guess I just have to try playing better each time I play /images/smile.gif .

11-05-2001, 03:28 PM
Most of the responses so far have basically said that running bad usually results in poor play.


In theory, if one were to play at a near expert level with no tilt, how poor can one's results really be over a say 2-4 month period assuming that he is really get bad cards?

11-05-2001, 06:14 PM
Boy do I know running bad. Up strong until September and then multiple losing sessions in a row for over 2 months. For me this time, running bad is getting a consistently low quality distribution of first two cards and getting beat on the turn or river when you hold two good ones. Others can catch perfect perfect 85 to get two pair and beat my KK.


I've agree that running bad can lead to sloppy play and indifference. But even if you stick to your guns and play well, you still pay 4.5 small bets per hour to just sit and muck. The buyin just grinds down and down.


After a while, you do start to second guess yourself. For example, in the big blind with T4 off (one of my better hands of late) and get a free play with 2 opponents. The flop comes JQK rainbow. UTG bets and the other folds to me. I muck. I flash my T4 and the woman says "you could have made a straight". I thought for a minute and with only 4 small bets and heads up, do I chase the 8 outs for at least 2 more big bets? I don't think so, but if I was ahead or there were more players in, I'd consider making the play. After being creamed for hours, it's hard to get anyone to back off as your table image is weak. I think it's best to change tables, casino's or just go home.

11-05-2001, 06:58 PM
Running bad and playing poorly for some extended period of time are two different things. But playing expertly all the time can result in some long losing streaks too. I don't know the exact answer but I would guess that a full time pro could maybe face a losing streak of 3 or 4 months. This would of course be rare but will probably occur at some point in ones career. If you want a better answer refer to Gambling Theory & Other Topics by Mason Malmuth. He goes into great depth on the subject in that book.

11-05-2001, 08:30 PM
Hello,Ted,


(A) Opposition has adjusted to your play;hence,the field is playing a better game against you.

************************************************** ************************************************** ******************************


(B) You would lose but not 40/hr. if you are playing well.

************************************************** ************************************************** ******************************


(C) You will have a few wins,but lose most of your sessions.

************************************************** ************************************************** ******************************

Never be afraid! "Fear" is your worst enemy. Always be confident in yourself and play well. You will always lose some battles--even major ones--but you will surely win the war!

************************************************** ************************************************** ************************************************** *********************************************

There will always be fluctuations in poker--some will faver you;others will work against you.

However,in the long run(+2000 Hrs.),if,on the average,you continue to make fewer mistakes than the field, you will surely be a winning poker player.

You must continue to study and be physically and mentally fit.

When you have two or more losing sessions,you must take a couple of days off. This time should be used for other ventures--do not think about poker.

************************************************** ************************************************** ******************************

(A) You're not running badly.


(B) Yes,you 're running badly.


Sitting Bull

11-05-2001, 08:32 PM
The question can be answered quite precisely using the techniques in Mason's Gambling Theory book

11-05-2001, 08:49 PM
Hello,Pitch,

I want to make absolutely sure that I understood you correctly.

You did say that you were a strong winner for the first 10 months? And just now you are experiencing a downside!

I wish that I had your poker skills!

I would be laughing all the way to the bank!


Sitting Bull

11-06-2001, 12:12 AM
..."for my first two months back"...I won't ask where you have been.


will have to agree that 1200 for two months of 20-40 sounds like you were not running good, for sure! that's not even real good for one game.


if you have been out of poker for awhile, then you probably should have started smaller to get back the feel...even if bankroll is no problem.


few years back I won tournament at Orleans, then for over a year I just couldn't make any $$$$, sure I won now and then, but overall never saw so many drawouts!!!

11-06-2001, 12:29 PM
Yeah, but the worse I run, the bigger and looser I bet.


If some idiot is watching other idiots draw out on me, I'm going to get more callers - and lose more money - in a greater percentage of pots.


I create opportunities to get unlucky, in the same period of time, because I know others will take the other side, the opportunity to get lucky.


At this point, the opportunity to occasionally run REALLY bad presents itself.


ku

11-06-2001, 12:57 PM
Hah! You are correct. I'm not so much complaining, but just reporting. Even someone with MY poker skills /images/wink.gif can't overcome a constant barrage of bad cards. It amazes me sometimes how the cards can be so bad for so long. The guys I've built my bankroll on are having a field day with me now. Fortunately, I've got a huge bankroll and the patience to perservere. My time will come....soon I hope.

11-06-2001, 03:25 PM

11-06-2001, 06:49 PM
Thanks, I'm going to order Mason's book right now. I read some stuff in his Poker Essays, but I didn't feel like it answered my question.