QQ in Big Pot - Fold on turn? (SSH)

[vanHelsing]

I have notes on UTG that he is loose and usually goes too far.
No read on UTG+1 so far.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 has Ah Kd (one pair, kings).
Hero has Qh Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 16.25 BB. </font>

Before studying SSH I might have decided to fold the turn.
Now I decided the pot to be too big to let it go. Misplayed?

[ErrantNight]

NO. show this down. consider not raising an overcard flop like this with such aggression. now AK has you beat, too, plus the overcard A might fall meaning you're certainly drawing almost dead

the only hand he could reasonably have that you'll be ahead of is AJ

that said, the flop raise is not a BAD play, and it's certainly better than folding this on any street

[Ed Miller]

Under the circumstances, that's a terrible flop for your hand. Why did you choose to raise the flop?

[vanHelsing]

I did not want to fold the flop.
So I decided I had to protect the hand against UTG. Maybe I could get him to fold an A or whatever could beat me later.

[AdamL]

Shouldn't the decision to fold here be after UTG+1 3-bets? Are you calling the 3-bet to try and hit a set on the turn?

What is the right reasoning in situations like this?

Adam

[Joe826]

What hands could UTG+1 be capping preflop with that you're ahead of?

[vanHelsing]

Getting 1:20 I think you must take the shot on your 2 outs. Implied odds should clearly make this the right move.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
What hands could UTG+1 be capping preflop with that you're ahead of?

[/ QUOTE ]

well, this is party 2/4 and a table with a 10 BB average pot...

Have a look at SSH page 332. (I am not sure, if I am allowed to quote it here)

[Joe826]

It's not just the set, but also the backdoor draws as well. Hero's gonna wanna see the turn card here, but raising accomplishes little.

[Joe826]

You said you didn't have a read on UTG+1. If this is the case, then he/she probably isn't an extreme lag. The majority of 2/4 players are passive anyways. LAG should not be your default read..

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Under the circumstances, that's a terrible flop for your hand. Why did you choose to raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you suggest? do you go in check call mode? With only one other player in the hand (who is prolly coming anyway) I can see this. But what if say there were 3 or 4 other people in the hand?

I dont think the flop bet means he has you beat. I would think if a raise could knock out people it would be worth making for the times you do have him beat as it doesnt allow something like a gutshot or lone A to have the odds to draw out.

Also if the raise in this hand gets you a free card, I think its worth making, you've got 2 backdoor draws and 2 likely good Q outs. However if you worry it might be 3 bet, then its definately not worth doing.

After being 3 bet here, I would call because youve got the odds to do so. But I would have folded on the turn

[vanHelsing]

So what do you suggest? When to fold? Or just call down?

[sthief09]

I think the biggest problem with peoples' interpretation of SSH is that they think it can override logic, and thus apply it in the wrong situations, like this one.

now think of capping hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and a loose player maybe AQ or TT.

so on the flop you should have 1 of 2 objectives: cheap showdown or getthefuckout (I'd choose the latter). now the problem with the flop raise is that you're behind almost every hand he could have, and given the possibilities for his hand, you're not going to slow him down for a cheap showdown. his 3-bet isn't news to you, since you're behind almost 100% of the time. so you call, choosing to see a showdown. you call the turn because you called the flop

now, on the river, AA, KK, JJ, AK, AQ, TT, KJ, KT, and KQ all beat you. I'd probably need something in the neighborhood of 500-1 to call the river.

[Ed Miller]

So I decided I had to protect the hand against UTG. Maybe I could get him to fold an A.

Protecting your hand must be balanced against putting in too much money with the worst of it. It's a risk vs. reward thing...

Here you were hoping to push only one player out with a 3-out hand (which is not enough outs to pose much threat to you, even in a relatively large pot), so the reward if everything goes your way is only ok, not terrific.

On the other hand, it is very likely that you are in serious trouble on this flop... and it is also very likely that you will be 3-bet. Putting in three bets on the flop drawing to two outs and a wacky backdoor straight is expensive, even in this relatively large pot.

Whenever you are deciding whether to push a marginal hand, think of everything that can go right and how much you gain if it happens. Then think of everything that can go wrong and how much you lose if it happens. Finally, think about how likely things are to go right versus how likely they are to go wrong.

In this example, you don't gain that much if things to right, you lose a fair amount if they go wrong, and they are significantly more likely to go wrong than right. That suggests that pushing your marginal hand with a raise is NOT the correct play.

[Ed Miller]

Against pretty much any 4-betting opponent, I'd call the flop for a queen and the backdoor straight and flush draws. If I miss on the turn and my opponent bets again, I'd probably fold against a typical opponent and call down against a player who will cap preflop with a lot of hands.

[chson]

[ QUOTE ]
Putting in three bets on the flop drawing to two outs and a wacky backdoor straight is expensive, even in this relatively large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's also got a backdoor flush. Add that to the backdoor straight and queens and it's about 5 outs. His flop play is definitely SSH style.

[Ed Miller]

He's also got a backdoor flush. Add that to the backdoor straight and queens and it's about 5 outs. His flop play is definitely SSH style.

He does have a backdoor flush, but raising the flop still isn't right.

[Evan]

I don't like it at all. Most people's capping standards here are AA-QQ and AKo/s. The king on the flop means that pobably 90% of the time you're drawing to 2 outs. I would fold to the flop 3-bet. I know that sounds weak, but seriously, what are you beating?