Laying down TPGK on the turn

[maurile]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, Button calls.

River: (9.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Button folds.

Final Pot: 10.16 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 9.16 BB, won by MP1.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to MP1.</font>

My thoughts. It was obvious to MP1 that I wasn't raising a draw (e.g., QT) on the flop. I was immediately to his left, so I was protecting a made hand. When he three-bet me on the flop I figured him for KJ or possibly a set. I didn't think he'd three-bet my obviously made hand with something like KT or worse. He might have had KQ or he might have had a worse king than me, but it was going to cost me at least $12 to find out, and I didn't like the fact that the button was still in the hand as well (having called two bets cold on the flop).

When he three-bet me on the flop, I was getting a little better than 13:1 to catch a queen on the turn. If he had KJ as I suspected, my implied odds to catch a queen were sufficient to call one more small bet.

But on the turn, I was getting about 8:1. And although it was possible my hand was already best, I didn't think it likely; and it was also possible that MP1 had a set and that catching a queen therefore wouldn't have helped me.

I figured I'd wait for a better spot to test MP1 when I liked my holding better.

Was this laydown okay, or is it too wimpy?

[MoreWineII]

Any reads on MP3?

FWIW I'd raise PF.

[Garland]

Wimpy:

The only set MP1 would reasonably have is 66 as JJ and KK would usually raise preflop. Your K is not likely to be dominated as MP1 would usually raise with AK preflop. The most likely hand you're up against is KJ (K6?), or the same hand, KQ. There's even some chance that you're up against K with a worse kicker.

By the time it gets to the turn, you are given 8.16:1 odds to draw for a Q and your hand is probably good half the time. I would call this down without improvement and raise if you hit the Q on the river.

Garland

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reads on MP3?

[/ QUOTE ]
I had just sat down at the table and hadn't played with either MP1 or MP3 before.

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I'd raise PF.

[/ QUOTE ]
I raise about half the time with KQo after one limper from middle position. (I always raise first in with KQo from middle position, and about half the time first in from early position.)

I should probably raise in this situation more often. My pre-flop raise percentage is curently 6.13% and I'd like to get it closer to 8%. Putting in a raise more often here would help.

[Noodles]

I agree you have to call this down unless you know the guy is usually real passive or only 3 bets really good hands then you could fold

[TheHip41]

OMG what a horrible fold. You know this guy could have Q-10. Oy

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
The only set MP1 would reasonably have is 66 as JJ and KK would usually raise preflop. Your K is not likely to be dominated as MP1 would usually raise with AK preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good points.

[ QUOTE ]
The most likely hand you're up against is KJ (K6?), or the same hand, KQ. There's even some chance that you're up against K with a worse kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, it was KJ that I was concerned about. I got a strong gut sense that he had KJ when he three-bet the flop, but perhaps I put more stock into that read than was warranted.

[MoreWineII]

I rarely raised with KQo, AJo and hands like these after 1-2 limpers before I started posting/lurking here, but I'm doing extremely well when doing so, it's actually really surprised me how well.

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
OMG what a horrible fold.

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Yeah, it was kind of a weird fold for me, which is why I'm posting it.

I wish the button had called on the river so I could see what MP1 had. Not that I tend to be results-oriented on hands in general, but in this case I got a really strong sense that my hand was no good. Even if I was right, however, that doesn't mean my fold was statistically correct.

Anyway, thanks for the feedback.

[nepenthe]

I would raise this preflop, and call down without a specific read.

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]

I wish the button had called on the river so I could see what MP1 had. Not that I tend to be results-oriented on hands in general,

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's good to be results oriented on reads.

In other words, when you put your opponent on a range of hands you are already building the fuzziness into the range. If you put him on X, Y, or Z and he turns out to have W then this isn't short-term noise that can be disregarded, your read was a mistake.

/mc

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
If you put him on X, Y, or Z and he turns out to have W then this isn't short-term noise that can be disregarded, your read was a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with that.

What I meant was that even if MP1 had turned over KJ, apparently vindicating my read, that doesn't mean my read was correct in the sense of correctly estimating the probability of each hand in the range I could put him on.

For example, if I believed that KJ was 70% likely when in fact it was only 45% likely, the fact that he actually had KJ this time doesn't really vindicate my read since I got the probability wrong.

But you're right that if I only considered AK, KQ, KJ, Kx and 66 as possibilities, while he actually held QT, then I know based on the results that my read was a mistake.