Never bet the flop?

[ChuckPelowski]

Sorry if this has been seen already.

If anyone has time to read this entire strategy, I would appreciate it. I have been using it for a few days and it seems to work for me, but I wanted some feedback. Thank you.

The following was taken from:Poker Blog (http://pokernerd.blogspot.com/2004_07_01_pokernerd_archive.html)

This is the key to not making stupid mistakes in a NL SNG. Never, ever, bluff on the flop. If you raised pre-flop and the flop misses you, check. More on this later. If the flop hits you, you've got a decision to make...bet, raise, or fold. The key variables here are reading your opponent and the potential for scare cards. If you are not last to act on the flop, you may be best served to never bet the flop, with rare exceptions for which I think I could still justify checking (ex. TT on a 962 rainbow flop). Any time the flop is bet and called/raised, the pot has become uncontrollable and has potential to end up all-in. You will avoid this.

A good example of when it's OK to bet the flop from last position would be A7 with a flop of T73 checked to you. You need to take the stab now on the likely chance that no one has a T and just about any card that falls other than an A or 7 renders you helpless.

Betting TPTK on the flop is the fastest way to losing a big chunk of chips and you will almost never get action unless you're beat.

[parappa]

I am extremely vulnerable to be taken in by this line of thinking, as is, apparently, Chuck. So if it's a bad idea, here's hoping that someone smarter than us posts in this thread.

There's a concept in TPFAP that says something like "never raise in a situation where you will vomit if someone re-raises," and a good many flop bets fall into this category-I will hate having invested a decent % of my stack and then get raised.

The most common situation that I could apply this to would be where I raise with AKo in early position and flop overcards. After reading SuperSystem and Doyle's
"If I'm the pre-flop raiser, I'll bet at it on the flop," I proceeded to blow off an awful lot of chips autobetting overcards from early position. Now I only bet at these kinds of things when I'm last to act and have a reasonable read saying that whomever I'm betting at will fold. And I _never_ try it on more than 2 players.

But, of course, I play 5+1 and 10+1, and you probably wouldn't go very far wrong there if you never bluffed when there were more than 4 people at the table.

(Note, though, that your heading says "never bet the flop," but that the article says "never bluff the flop.") /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[chill888]

I guess there may be many ways to win but ........

This is IMHO awful advice. I win more from betting post flop than anyother way. Doyle also says in Super System:

(these are my words): Very often both players (or everyone) miss the flop. The aggressive player wins when this happens.

Now, the secert is being able to get away from a bluff (while you are puking) or semi-bluff when you are raised.
If you are one of those guys that starts going " uh the pot odds are now so high I have to call the reriase" then maybe the advice makes sense.

GL

[parappa]

Are there any spots that you are more or less likely to do this kind of thing, chill? I assume heads-up, last-to-act is the spot. Are you happy to do it first to act or behind a group of checkers?

(oh, and my mistake, he does say not to bet the flop from early position)

[chill888]

Yes, mainly when it is a two way pot. If i bet preflop and was called - then I will often (not always) come out betting.

Similarly, if 2 way pot and i called and the preflop bettor checks to me.

It depends on flop my hand, my opponent, etc .. but these situations require frequent swings at the pot.


Of course it depends on situation, but you should be betting OFTEN in these circumstances. But as I said, you need discipline to often fold when raised.

gl


This is also true 3 way - but it is trickier here.


Regards

[poboys]

I've had some discussions with PokerNerd (author of the strategy posts) and I want to make a few points.

First, the paragraph is pnerd's (venetian on 2+2) strategy for very early (say levesl 1-3) in a low buy-in Sng game. He advocates a different approach once you get past the first few levels (or the field has been thinned).

So nerd's strategy is to bet when you have it and check when you don't early in the SnG. I don't think that's bad advice.

He waffles a little on betting TPTK (or even good kicker) and here's where I disagree with his line of thinking. If I hit TPTK then I normally bet out, but sometimes I'll check to re-raise--depends on the player. He's not saying NEVER bet the flop with TPTK, by the way.

Furthermore, I think the most controvertial (sp) idea in his strategy is not post-flop betting, but pre-flop betting. He usually does not raise (or raise much) with premium hands. He prefers to keep pots small, so that he's not pot committed nor does the pot size entice others to take stabs at it.

Finally, pNerds strategy in late rounds is extremely aggressive. So the comments that 'aggressiveness wins pots' is true, he just prefers to not be aggressive early.

Either way, the entire post is an excellent read and his ideas are at least worth thinking about (even if in the end you dismiss them).

[Potowame]

I think any poker advice that has never in it is not very good. Unless it says never call a two way all-in with 72os.

As for SS, I think you can take it to a different level if you read it again.

When to never bluff the flop :

#1 Playing a calling station HU or Multi.

#2 on a flop that you know had to hit your villan, but
Missed you.


When to always bet the flop:

1# against a calling station and you hit. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

2# Against a weak player that will fold alot, and say
take it "Dolly".

3# a good player that can Lay down hands, that beat you.


As for not betting a flop that hit you, Hmmm. What are you going to do check call? Maby if you Have a Weak hand like 1010 and a flop like A 5 9 , comes. Alot of times by check calling this flop you can get a free show down.

[La Brujita]

I have to say some of this advice is truly horrid.

I have to say first you don't really want to be bluffing much if at all in a four or more way pot.

But here is a tip if I can give one-never and I mean never listen to advice about nl hold'em that advocates always doing one thing or another. NL he is very situation specific and you have to be a bit chameleon-like to be a good player.

Points of disagreement:

1. Never bet a missed flop-horrible advice. Depends on the texture of the flop, number of opponents and passiveness/agressiveness of your opponents. If your opponent folds all the time without top pair decent kicker or better and you are heads up you check the flop?

2. Never betting the flop with a good hand may honestly be the worst advice I have read on this site in a long time. The reasons are almost too many to state but here are a few (i) you need to protect your strong hands (ii) you need to value bet your good hands (iii) you can't let people have an infinite price to draw (iv) if you check the flop and call you only put money in when your opponent's hands are good enough to put money in but not when they are weak. I could make a longer explanation but I hope that is clear.

[ChuckPelowski]

Has there been any real discussion of this strategy? It seems to work to a point, but I'd like some more feedback. I like a lot of the ideas, they just seem to go against the flow of what everyone else says.

[La Brujita]

I am skimming his blog and I will just list things I think are clearly incorrect:

1. With a playing stack, I strongly advise that no matter what level you're at, you play exactly like you would in a NL ring game (assuming you can win there).

2. You should never, ever go all-in with a playable stack unless you know with 99% certainty you have the best hand. Never.

3. In EP, with the exception of KK and AA (sometimes QQ), never raise pre-flop.

4. In the last two positions, with early limpers, limp with virtually anything that has a prayer of hitting a flop, J9o, any suited, any pair, any A, etc. Don't get stupid, but if you can grab the button, all the orphan pots are belong to you.

5. You see a free flop from the big blind with QT...the flop comes Q93 and you check because you don't like the kicker. It checks around. Now a harmless looking 6 falls. You bet out and someone in late position raises you (or calls, this is debatable depending on situation). You can't call. There's no way. So, you have to give it up without taking it to showdown. Or, you take it to showdown only to find you were dominated from the start and suckered into betting a second-best hand. That's why checking through AQ on the flop could be more profitable. A flop bet almost certainly scares everyone off. A flop check and turn raise pushes the curiosity button and makes for bigger pots. In most situations, curiosity > risk of free card.

6. There are two possibilities for river play: either you know (and I mean know) you have the best hand or you don't. If you don't, you want to see the showdown for as cheap as possible.

I stopped reading after this point.

[ChuckPelowski]

What advice would you give instead? Where is a good place for a novice to start?

[La Brujita]

The sit and go FAQ has a lot of good information and I think Aleo Magus' strategy is a good starting point. I made my post because reading the advice I was shocked at it and it could really lead someone down the wrong path.

A few thoughts on sit and gos:

1. Away from the money you need to play +ev poker (easier said then done). Plus ev poker is determined by many things largely the way you play your cards in reaction to the range of cards your opponents had. As an example, TPTK is a strong hand if people are calling you with middle pairs and worse. In traditional no limit play you don't want to go bust on TPTK but you have to realize the shallower the money the more it plays like its own animal as opposed to a deep money ring game or the early stages of a multi.

2. As for basic advice, you want to be the aggressor not the caller. If you think your hand is good you need to bet at the pot to protect it. Nobody is ever 99% sure their hand is good unless you hold AA. Heck if you hold KK you are not 99% sure your hand is good mathematically. My general thought is you want to be aggressive without risking too much of your stack without premium hands if at all possible. When I was less experienced I slow played and check called much too much.

3. Playing weak aces and any two suited after limpers early is very questionable advice if you are not a strong post flop player (especially weak aces). Just muck a hand like A-7o after a few limpers (or basically at any other time early in the tourney). A hand like 6-2s might be profitable to play in round 1 if you are a good post flop player but is a very tough hand to play if you are not. You should muck that as well.

I also feel like folding equity which is an important part of nl play was excluded from his thoughts.

I didn't go point by point through the things I thought were incorrect but I hope that gives a start.

I guess the main problem I have with advice like he gave is that there is no magic way to accumulate chips in he, especially in a setting like a sit and go. There are very few situations that are 80-20 or better, most of the time your edge will be in the range of 55-45 to 70-30. I always see people advocating not taking decent edges and wonder when do you get your chips then?

Finally, letting others draw free to beat you is a sure way not to be a winning player imo.

[chill888]

Poboys,

thx for the clarifications.

It sounds like its ok (not great) advice for newbies that don't know better -- as a starting point until their judgement improves.

It's still bad advice but nothing wrong with initial guidance.

Like I told my brother when he started. "play really really tight" "no even tighter" /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

Betting TPTK on the flop is the fastest way to losing a big chunk of chips and you will almost never get action unless you're beat.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can you say "weak tight" can you say "monsters under the bed"?

Does position enter into this at all?

This is quite possibly the worst piece of poker advice I have ever read.

If you're betting TPTK/TPGK, it's generally exactly because YOU DON'T WANT ACTION! You want to take the pot down right there. If you do get some calls, that's okay too because in the long run you're making money from calling stations chasing without odds.

For example, you have AhTh, 6 other players see the flop, flop is Ts6s3d.

You're going to check this through?

Do you enjoy loosing?

You check this through, and instead of winning the pot right now, you stand loose it when a K, Q, J or any spade comes. Or someone with low pair gets their second pair. Or the board pairs to give someone trips. Or someone completes their gutshot straight draw. If you bet it, sure you may still get rivered by a calling station but you will at least thin the field enough to give yourself a fighting chance. And all those times the turn and river come rags, rags, you're even further ahead.

Which isn't to say go crazy in this situation. Depending on the table (and the blinds), a min-bet (ugh) may be enough to take it down if you're scared. Usually a half-pot bet is good enough and pot-sized virtually always is and you certainly never want to overbet in this situation unless you have a very good reason to do so (ie: you want a call or stacks are big enough (ie MTT) that a half-pot or pot-sized bet is not significant enough to disuade calls) because it implys weakness and may entice aggressives to try a raise-steal.

Yes, there will be times where you will make a half-pot bet and be re-raised or check-raised big or all-in. And 9 times out of 10 when this happens you need to fold, fold, fold. Too bad, so sad, however all the times you win the pot outright here more than compensates for this occaisional loss.

If you do get called here, then THAT'S when you need to slow down and reassess since depending on your oppenents you may be looking at anything from ace-high to a slow-played set. However, to flat out say "Never bet the flop with TPTK is simply horrible".

[willie]

i believe this to be seriously bad advice.

you think that you're only going to get action from a hand that beats your tptk? what about the dolts who chase 2 outters with low pp, you want to give them a free card that could devastate your hand?

i prefer to do most of my gambling ON the flop as opposed to later. if i'm ahead, i want to stay that way and i'm not going to simply check and give a card that could fill a draw or hit a pocket pair.

i really don't understand this advice.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]


5. You see a free flop from the big blind with QT...the flop comes Q93 and you check because you don't like the kicker. It checks around. Now a harmless looking 6 falls. You bet out and someone in late position raises you (or calls, this is debatable depending on situation). You can't call. There's no way. So, you have to give it up without taking it to showdown. Or, you take it to showdown only to find you were dominated from the start and suckered into betting a second-best hand. That's why checking through AQ on the flop could be more profitable. A flop bet almost certainly scares everyone off. A flop check and turn raise pushes the curiosity button and makes for bigger pots. In most situations, curiosity > risk of free card.




[/ QUOTE ]

i think i've said it before, but with 40,000 players on party alone at times, you simply can't get to play with everyone so you must operate on playing trends.

and LIMPING, ace queen is possible, but they would never check a queen high flop in a multiway pot after limping.

well i don't mean never, but it's a play that i've never seen online.

i really wouldn't bother reading the advice of this writer....get yourself hold'em for advanced players by sklansky or tournament poker for a pro.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
Poboys,

thx for the clarifications.
[ QUOTE ]

It sounds like its ok (not great) advice for newbies that don't know better -- as a starting point until their judgement improves.


[/ QUOTE ]

True, at least it helps you to avoid getting into trouble.

[ QUOTE ]

It's still bad advice but nothing wrong with initial guidance.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interresting point--something I try to evaluate when reading other posts. I am not sure if I can argue if it's good or bad advice, but nerd contends that it's profitable advice, fwiw.

Again, I don't follow this strategy blindly, but I think that there are some situations where I find his advice works (right position, player types, blind structure). And many situations where it doesn't.

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

That's why checking through AQ on the flop could be more profitable. A flop bet almost certainly scares everyone off. A flop check and turn raise pushes the curiosity button and makes for bigger pots. In most situations, curiosity > risk of free card.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting strategem (I generally don't slowplay anything less than a decent 2-pair and only when there aren't flush draws available [and of course paired boards are always dangerous]), however I'd like to make a couple comments...

First, with respect "Never bet the flop with TPTK", there's a world of difference between having TPTK with queens and TPTK with say tens or nines - There's a lot better chance of trouble from the turn or river card when you're only holding a medium pair than QQ A-kicker where the only scare cards in the deck a 4 kings. (I realise you're not advocating slowplaying a pair of tens, I just wanted to clarify this).

Second, the number of players still in the hand, their style and your position are also key factors. If it's heads up, then giving free cards is not nearly as dangerous as when there are 6 other players still in the hand. Similarily when a board is uncordinated rags it's a lot less dangerous than when there's some suited paint.

I think the bottom line to my point is "Don't slowplay vulnerable hands". You want to win right away or punish drawing hands for chasing.

The definition of a "vulnerable hand" is going to vary with the specifics of circumstance.