The Bush Bounce: How Big Was It?

[Dynasty]

The Republican National Convention and Labor Day weekend are over. The 8 week sprint to Election Day has started.

It appears Bush definitely got a bounce out of the RNC but polls are all over the place.

The USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm) has Bush ahead 52-45 with likely voters.

The Time Magazine Poll (http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html) has Bush opening up a walloping 52-41 lead among likely voters.

The Zogby poll (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857) has Bush ahead but only by a 46-44 margin.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen is reporting their own poll and the Time Poll (as well as a Newseek poll) are flawed (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Poll%20Differences%20Sept%206.htm) for different reason. Rasmussen is saying that "the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time."

So, where do you think the election stands? And, where do you think it's going?

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]

So, where do you think the election stands? And, where do you think it's going?

[/ QUOTE ]

We need to wait until the state polls come out.

Stu

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
And, where do you think it's going?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where democracy leads all elections, down the long twisting downhill road of demagoguery with turns every few meters to reveal another set of shrill quackeries, fairytale delusions, utopian mirages, and promises to ring in the new millennium - with a chicken in every pot, health and jobs to all, security and liberty oozing from bureaucrats in high places, and peace and love falling out of cloudless skies to cool and sooth the throbbing masses – all got by casting a ballot for the next Messiah with the most promises and the least creditable way of delivering on them. All hail holy democracy. Shout hosanna and amen for the kingdom of God is at hand.


Le Misanthrope

[Nate tha' Great]

The size of the bounce is immaterial as compared with its duration. I think, frankly, a lot of the theatrics and rhetoric that characterized the RNC is likely to have made a strong impression upon first viewing but will not hold up well under scrutiny. In any event I expect most of the polls to have settled to within the margin of error by the middle of the month.

[3rdEye]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And, where do you think it's going?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where democracy leads all elections, down the long twisting downhill road of demagoguery with turns every few meters to reveal another set of shrill quackeries, fairytale delusions, utopian mirages, and promises to ring in the new millennium - with a chicken in every pot, health and jobs to all, security and liberty oozing from bureaucrats in high places, and peace and love falling out of cloudless skies to cool and sooth the throbbing masses – all got by casting a ballot for the next Messiah with the most promises and the least creditable way of delivering on them. All hail holy democracy. Shout hosanna and amen for the kingdom of God is at hand.


Le Misanthrope

[/ QUOTE ]

My proverbial red pen is itching to write, "RUN-ON SENTENCE!"

[tyfromm]

This NYT poll analysis makes it all clear.

The Latest Poll
By LEE KALCHEIM

Published: September 7, 2004

40 percent of parents who dislike 30 percent of their children prefer George W. Bush.


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60 percent of households that fly flags think America can do no wrong 26 percent of the time.


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70 percent of women who think Mr. Bush is more likeable than their husbands prefer John Kerry.


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52 percent of people with wall-to-wall carpeting dislike Mr. Bush's plan for redecorating Iraq.


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98 percent of people who are hearing-impaired like 50 percent of what they hear from Mr. Bush.


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100 percent of Spanish-American War veterans are dead.


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98 percent of World War I veterans can't remember the name of either candidate. Both prefer Coolidge.


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43 percent of women think Mr. Bush has more presidential hair. 26 percent think John Edwards has more vice presidential hair. 47 percent think Mr. Edwards has more presidential hair and 26 percent think Mr. Kerry has more vice presidential hair. 92 percent think Dick Cheney has no hair. 73 percent think Mr. Bush's hair is irrelevant. 54 percent think Mr. Bush is irrelevant.


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76 percent of women think Teresa Heinz Kerry colors her hair. 53 percent of those women would prefer a different color. 42 percent would prefer a different first lady.

One-half of all Jewish mothers like one-half of Mr. Kerry.


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63 percent of single women over 50 think John Kerry is too tall for his own good. 71 percent of divorced women say George Bush would be an ideal ex-husband.


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Before the Republican convention, 86 percent of the population thought Zell Miller was a professional golfer. After the convention, 92 percent of the population would not like to be in his foursome.


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50 percent of the electorate think that polls are misleading, inaccurate and inconclusive. The other 50 percent agree 30 percent of the time with 40 percent of the results.


Lee Kalcheim is a writer for television and theater whose most recent play is "Defiled."

[tanda]

Bush was semi-surging before the convention, so I would not characterize all of his improvement as due to the convention bounce.

I think his lead is 4-7 points. Now, he wins all the states he did in 2004 except maybe N.H. and/or W.V. plus picks up Wisc. and maybe Penn., Minn. and/or N.M.

Kerry is in trouble. I believe the recent improvement is more than just a bounce, thus more fundamental and more lasting. Bush is improving on all underlying numbers and state polls. In other words, the improvement is broad.

Also, they seem to be campaigning a little more than you would expect in the battleground states that are more likely to go for Kerry such as Penn., Minn., Mich. and W.V. This indicates that Bush is running well enough to pick off some of those states while Kerry needs to defend them.

[andyfox]

Mencken lives!