weak tight?

[jar]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

River: (12.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero folds, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, SB calls $0.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: 21 BB

SB and CO waking up screams diamond flush to me. I've been working on not paying off when I'm way behind, but was this pot too big?

[InchoateHand]

[ QUOTE ]
SB and CO waking up screams diamond flush to me. I've been working on not paying off when I'm way behind, but was this pot too big?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd work on paying off when you are behind. It will make you money in the end.

"Big" folds are overrated.

[nepenthe]

Eh. This is Party 0.5/1. Go ahead and call.

[ArturiusX]

Too big a pot.

Good play until the river, I would have called with a pot like that.

[RED_RAIN]

Screw the pot odds and people who say folding big pots is stupid. I folded a 13:1 offering today on the river and I was right as I think most people would agree with my river fold.

This is a deadly Queen card as CO might have just pushed you off with a weaker queen. I agree that after the fact with SB 3 betting with no bets he has a flush. I might have called 2 cold and folded when it's capped back at me.

[jar]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd work on paying off when you are behind. It will make you money in the end.
"Big" folds are overrated.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this hand, you were right. Turns out SB had TT and CO had 33, so the fold cost me 20 bucks. I dunno how many hands before that I put in the call on the river thinking, ok, show me the flush, and it was there every time.

If it was one bet, I'd have called this without a thought, but it being two cold with players waking up, I saw the monsters under the bed.

[droolie]

The flush draws should have concerned you but not as much as the boat possibilities and neither should have concerned you enough to fold the hand.

This is a great example of the apllication of pot equity.

When you folded there were 17BBs in the pot. You got a set on the river, your pot equity went up! You therefore gave up too much equity to fold for 2BB in that spot. You only need to win that pot %20 of the time (or so taking into account reverse implied odds) to make that call profittable. With a set of Q's your pot equity was well over %20.

You probably should have three bet it.

Wimping out on a hand like this costs more than the pot, it takes a portion of your soul! Also somewhere someone kills a puppy every time you do this! You don't need that on your conscience do you?

[scotnt73]

the other day a fourth diamond landed on the river. i had a set of 9s that i hit on the flop. i had no diamond .i bet into 3 people 99.999% sure that i was beat. 2 guys folded. the last guy called and showed me 2 pair. always pay these off. its been said a million times-you dont have to hit it very often for it to be hugely profitable in the long run.

[atomicbran]

I don't know that pot equity applies on the river. It seems like at this point someone's pot equity is going to be 100% and everyone else's will be 0%, unless there's a tie. There are no more cards to come. I agree with the puppy thing and I'm upset that he folded this.

[droolie]

I'd like clarification on this.

I see people folding when flush cards hit way too often. I see people folding to ragged flops when the button bets way too often. I've always thought in terms of "pot equity" in estimating my probabilty of winning a pot with my river betting. Maybe I'm using the wrong term (perhaps I should have said winning chances?) but this is an important concept that I would like to understand better.

I usually try to figure what it will cost me to bet on the river versus my estimate (yes, a guess) of what the likelihood of other better hands being out against me. I usually try to estimate with a percentage my likelihood of winning versus the likehood of a certain hand winning a pot.

These are the percentages I use of what hands usually win pots... (http://www.holdempoker.com/statistics.html)

2 Pair 31%
Pair 27%
Trips 12%
Straight 9%
Flush 9%
Full house 9%
Bust (nothing) 2%
Four of a kind 1%
Straight flush &lt;1%
Royal flush &lt;1%

While these are not very helpful out of context, they are quite helpful when you think of what the likeihood of someone having a better hand than yours on the river.

This means that 69% of all pots are won by trips or less. While only 27% of pots are won with a pair or less. This the basis of how I determine my "pot equity" on the river.

When the board is scary I downgrade these numbers according to betting patterns and reads of players accordingly.

For instance if there are four suited cards and I have less than a flush, or two different high paired cards and I have less than a boat, I estimate my equity as being very low, especially with heavy betting. However if running suited cards hit the turn and river, leaving three to a flush or if the river card pairs the board, I'm not especially worried about a flush or a boat respectively, especially in a big pot.

I use a combination of betting action pre-flop, flop, turn and river in making my best guess of what my opponents likely have. I discount the value of turn and river betting as these are more likely to be bluffing bets than pre-flop and flop bets.

Is this just stupid or is there a better system I should be using to make these "guess-timates"?