This has been gnawing at me for a while

[Andy B]

From the main event at last year's Fall Classic at Canterbury Park. NLHE $1000 + $60. It's the third or fourth hand after the dinner break. About 250 started. A table just broke, so players are being moved around, and we're down to eighty now. Twenty-seven get paid. I've just picked up a couple of small pots and have T5000 or so. Blinds are $200/400 with an ante of I think $50. Young guy I've never seen before is under the gun. I've been a regular in this room since day one, and unfamiliar players tend to be $2/4 players who got in via satellite/jackpot and out-of-towners. He's not quite yet situated when he looks at his cards. He says, "let's see, what do I want to do with this hand?" He throws in three purple chips, making it $1500 to go. I'm next with <font color="red">A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K</font>/images/graemlins/heart.gif. He has me covered. What's my play?

[Ryner]

I dont know, seems like a tough decision on what exactly to do, but I dont think folding would be a good option. I'd imagine if I was in your shoes at the time I'd base my decision on the way he said "what do I want to do..."

[pokerraja]

this is very tough for us to comment on without knowing what average chips are? what did u start with? what kind of position are you in? either fold or raise in my opinion. If your underaverage in chips I might reraise all-in and go to war with big slick backing me up/.

[Andy B]

We started with T2000 in chips. That makes about T500,000 in play (a little less, I think), for an average stack size of a little over T6000. So I'm a little below average, and he's a little above average.

[pokerraja]

you are still quite a ways from the money. you are underaverage. with his comment i doubt he has AA-JJ, but you never know. I'm thinking in this situation his acting tough is actually weakness. i would probably put him all-in. you could have him beat (AK vs AQ&lt; AJ, etc...) or a coin flip at worst (77-1010). thats my read.

[Roman]

I probably go all in, you are below average and far away from the money, adding 2100 to your stack if he folds is a 42% increase and most of the time you will be in pretty good shape if called.

[Jason Strasser]

Push or fold. It's completely opponent dependant. I tend to push, but I don't play in events like that.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Push or fold. It's completely opponent dependant. I tend to push, but I don't play in events like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Online, with no read, I'd probably push, but calling could be good too, if you feel like this is an opponent you can outplay post flop. I play fewer flops than most players I know (I tend to put players all-in preflop if I'm going to play, at least when we reach those middle 20-30x the BB stacks stages). I am looking to add a couple more chances to play flops when the EV is probably close (pushing with AK aganst a normal range of hands here is certainly +EV over folding, but I think quality of the players' postflop play would determine whether or not it was a better option for a player to call or push here). Being second to act, you do risk someone behind you pushing if you call, which could be trouble (since you will often feel forced to call as a coinflip).

Summary: Close between push and call. I'd push generally, but table texture and opponent reads could easily make it a call.

I get high-speed internet in my new place wednesday, so expect an increase in my blathering soon....

[Dr_Colossus]

Calling is definately incorrect, you don't want to play this three ways. Besides if you call and don't hit the flop you have to fold to his bet. I believe an all-in bet is correct as he will have to fold with anthing below pocket Js provided he is aware of the gap concept. Even if he does call and has up to pocket Qs you are only a 45% dog. You must also take into account that he could have raised with AQ or even something like KQs.
Either way it's a tough decision so let us know the out come of the hand.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is definately incorrect, you don't want to play this three ways. Besides if you call and don't hit the flop you have to fold to his bet. I believe an all-in bet is correct as he will have to fold with anthing below pocket Js provided he is aware of the gap concept. Even if he does call and has up to pocket Qs you are only a 45% dog. You must also take into account that he could have raised with AQ or even something like KQs.
Either way it's a tough decision so let us know the out come of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the biggest problem with calling is getting overcallers. What if you were in the BB with it? How about on the button with tight players in the SB and BB? How about if you thought the raiser was very unimaginative and you could pick up the pot any time he missed the flop? I think in one (or more) of these situations calling could be a better play.

Of course, that's kind of a long way from the original problem, which is an unknown player with hero UTG+1, for which I do think the best course of action is all in.

Just trying to generalize the problem. I find it useful to analyze decisions in a context of "how much do I have to change the situation to make a different decision the correct one." Since we face many similar, but not identical, situations when we are playing, I find it useful to generalize specific hands under discussion.

Man. That sounds defensive. I don't mean to be, just trying to expose thought process, which is kind of what we are here to do...

[beerbandit]

the blinds are getting larger and you said that you are just below average. you are going to have position on the original raiser but there are still players left to act behind you.

another consideration would be the players at the table. do you feel that you should wait for a better opurtunity against a weaker player that you will have better position on.

what are your plans with this hand if you call and another player moves in behind you.

i would raise another 1500t or 2000t probably ---- hopefully getting the pot heads up if not winning 2600t right there. your are dominating most hands and 50% to most of the rest.

depending on if any other players called or if its raised behind you. i might either call or lay it down you still will have 2000t chips left and your not out.

players may not begin playing to tight yet since there are quite a few more people to get eliminated before the money starts.

cheers
beer

[swimfan]

I'd push; think it's a push or fold situation. My reason for push is it puts you in an improved chip situation for stealing blinds in later rounds with a win, and for an opponent fold.

[RiverMel]

He has AA (maybe KK), fold.

[lolita16]

I fold here given no other information about my opponent than you had, but I think I tend to play AK a bit weaker than I should in some spots. My reasoning is I don't want to go into a situation knowingly in which I am most likely a small dog or a huge dog. Most players don't make comments about a hand that is a pure steal.

If you have a bit more information about your opponent and know that he might make this play with AQ, or AJ, then I like the push all in. I prefer being the aggressor with AK as opposed to calling a raise. There is also the argument that you have to push sometimes in order to win a tournament.

If you are fairly good at reading people you could always try my line to see if you can get a tell. I use "whatcha got?" and can sometimes get a read on how strong my opponent's hand is. (Caution: this likely works better coming from a 120 pound girl.)

[Andy B]

If I raise another T1500 or T2000, I'm absolutely pot-commited, so I might as well push in.

[Andy B]

I'm a 230-pound guy, so I'm probably not as good at eliciting information as you are. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Andy B]

I pushed in. It was folded around to the original raiser, and he did indeed have AA. The flop was <font color="red">9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif</font> or some such, so there was no getting away from the hand if I had just called before the flop. What I couldn't figure at the time was whether he'd make a comment like that with anything less than a monster. When I can't figure out what people are doing, I just play my cards, and it cost me in this case.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
He says, "let's see, what do I want to do with this hand?"

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had left that out, I would say that it's an easy push. With that comment, though, you have to fear a monster, I think. I still don't think I could get away from AKs, though. I won't be surprised if he turns over AA-QQ, though.

[RiverMel]

I wouldn't sweat it. Reading your post, from the way you constructed things and from the details you included (and from the fact that this hand was "still gnawing at you"), it seemed pretty clear he had AA (or maybe KK), but I wouldn't beat yourself up over not having come to that conclusion at the table. I would have pushed too.

[The Student]

This is a real tough call given the circumstances (middle stages of the tourney, the fact that you are forcing him to call a big bet if you push), and I probably would have pushed in here as well. One of (many) things that I am trying to remember at MTTs right now is that when a new player sits down that I don't recognize, I should probably consider them to be a straight-forward player until proven otherwise. His odd comment, along with his substantial bet (of about 25% of his stack), should tell you that he has a real hand. Sure he may be trying to steal and show off that he's got some guts, but I'm not sure this is where you want to be risking all your chips with a hand that is favored only if he's making a move with a weaker ace. I think the better line would be to fold them (I know it's painful) until you have a better understanding of how this guy plays.

That being said, I probably would have pushed in as well.

ts-

[GrinningBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
He says, "let's see, what do I want to do with this hand?" He throws in three purple chips, making it $1500 to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had hoped that other would have given examples of this tell from their personal experience so that I could see if it coincided with mine.

Generally, when someone says this they have what they consider a strong hand. Now, what 'strong' means varies by player, but if this is a typical decent player, your AKs is in trouble here.

That said, I would have done the same thing as you, since we really don't know what this guy's raising standards are. He might think ATs is a strong hand UTG. &lt;shrug&gt;

[beerbandit]

if you raise

depending on the action you may lay this down and still have chips to be in the tourney----when push and get called your behind or barely ahead

if you raise and someone pushes behind you and the original raiser calls or raises again --- you do have a big hand but you know you are behind and can lay it down

i dont think that calling is the worst option here either---players that call behind you may not only be playing dominated hands but the may cause the new player to play less aggresively post flop and get you some free/cheap cards with you drawing hand.


cheers
beer

[gergery]

Fold.

1. People who are not yet situated then see their cards and bet most often have very good cards. If he doesn’t then he’s a tricky player, and bustable in the near future.
2. If he’s raising with decent cards UTG, then its maybe AA-TT, AK/AQ, so you are roughly EV neutral here anyway. You seem good enough to want better spots than that.
3. He’s got to call 3500 to win 6500 if you push, so will likely play with AA-QQ/AK, and maybe worse if he’s an internet qualifier. So you are likely to get called, and most likely to be at best a slight underdog.

--Greg

[Scooterdoo]

your play was just fine. Forget about it.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
1. People who are not yet situated then see their cards and bet most often have very good cards. If he doesn’t then he’s a tricky player, and bustable in the near future.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a very reliable read. Also, if someone is eating or talking to a friend, looks at their cards, and bets/raises, they usually have a stronger than normal hand.

[Slacker13]

The comment he makes scares me. If you are in fact correct that he may be a 2-4 player who decided to get into a tourney and not a regular tourney player then his comments definatly scream monster. It's very hard to get away from your hand though. I would like to say I would lay it down here but I am not 100% sure i would. Off to the results.

[lolita16]

I'm kidding of course. I found myself in a very similar situation in one of the very first NL tournaments I ever played, and it is likely the reason I am now a bit quicker to release this hand. I raised early with AKs, a BARGEr who clearly believed that women have no business at a poker table pushed all in behind me. Today my thinking would be this player would rather lose a testicle than lose a big pot to a mere female. He has AA; there should have been no doubt in my mind. I don't even think he would have made this play with KK. I of course, called only to see the AA that should have hit me in blazing neon before the flop.

I think in certain spots we tend to overplay AK. I tend to fold it given a read that I am sure that my opponent has at least a pair, unless I am already in the pot for a large amount, thereby gaining odds, or I have a really large stack relative to my opponent, or a really small stack and have to gamble to try to double up.

[whiskeytown]

gawd...

given my knowledge of the dice shoot that Canterbury is, I'd probably go all in -

RB