Three More Preflop EV Questions

Again assume mediocre opponents in a 15-30 holdem game with a ten and fifteen dollar blind. If you are a very good, (but not world class) player, what would you estimate you will average per hand (plus or minus) when you are (A) under the gun? (B) two to the right of the button? and (C) on the button? I am not specifying the hand you have, just the position.


Please understand that we are talking about the average EV for all your hands combined, including the ones you throw away and break even with. Thus a sample answer might be (A) negative $.25 (B) plus $3 (C) plus $4.50


It turns out that a little logic and math, irrefutably demonstrates the answers must be within a fairly narrow range. For that reason I would ask that the rationale for your answers NOT be posted for now, since it might deter contributions from those who are thinking of this wrongly. Please just post the three numbers and we will discuss them later.

+$0.25

+$3.00

+$5.00


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I'll be one of the fish to bite your hook.


I'll answer even more specifically.


Seats 1 through 10, with 1 being the big blind and 10 being the button. I am including 10% rake upto $3, and $1 toke.


10-2.52


09-2.04


08-1.88


07-1.48


06-1.34


05-1.16


04-.98


03-.87


02-neg 9.00


01-neg 6.40


Seats 02 and 01 include money posted.


So my answers are A)$0.87, B)$1.88, C)$2.52.


Looking forward to your answer and your reasoning.


Regards.

About $.75 per hand, +/- $.05 depending on position.


Just an offhand guess.


- Andrew

backdoor,


Your estimates seem to be for a losing player.


- Andrew

Andrew,


I assumed the players were all equal in ability. Therefore, with the rake/toke they should all lose on average with a moving button. Essentially, the combined average loss should be the rake and toke.


If that still looks wrong, let me know.


Regards.

backdoor,


Reread the original post. All your opponents are mediocre. And you are supposed to be a very good player. Therefore, the net of your ten positions should be positive. With your calculations, you are losing $3.00+ each time the button goes around the table.


Your approach is sound though. Bump up the numbers proportionately so that the good player makes the appropriate amount each time the button goes around.


Is anybody going to follow the guidlines David asked us to follow?

I assume it's Ten-Handed !?


A= 0,75


B= 2,5


C= 3,5

My first estimate assumed equal players.


New answer.


These are partially based on TTHE with some attempt to control for known errors.


A)$1.20

B)$2.93

c)$3.98


I included rake/toke.


I would like to know what method you are using and your assumptions when you post your answers.


Regards.

nt

David,


Warning: The following is very rough (calculated while I drink morning coffee) but should be in the ballpark.


Since I live in Los Angeles I'll assume a nine handed game. Not counting collection and tips, a very good player should average about $40 per hour based on 36 hands per hour. That is $10 per round. Note that with a time collection of $12 to $14 per hour and $2 average tips his real "hourly rate" should be about $25 per hour.


$15 big blind should lose $8.


$10 small blind should lose $7.


(A) UTG should win 75 cents.


Early position should win $1.25


Early middle should win $2


Middle should win $3


(B) Late middle should win $4


Cutoff should win $6


(C) Button should win $8


So (A) = 75 cents, (B) = $4, (C) = $8


Regards,


Rick


PS: If I am right or close to it this has some applicability to determining the best time to take a three hand bathroom break (I assume you wash your hands before and after!) /images/smile.gif

"Thus a sample answer might be (A) negative $.25 (B) plus $3 (C) plus $4.50"


Okay, I'll go with those.


Tommy

David,


A) +$1.68

B) +$4.18

C) +$5.18


Soh

A. + $2.00

B. + $3.00

C. + $4.00

Assuming a win of 40$/hr with 40 hands/hr


So one should have an EV of 10$ per round


I would claim that EV answers should be a weighted sum of the following two "EV vectors"


1 -6.50

2 -11.50

3 3.50

4 3.50

5 3.50

6 3.50

7 3.50

8 3.50

9 3.50

10 3.50


1 -10.00

2 -14.22

3 1.56

4 2.33

5 3.11

6 3.89

7 4.67

8 5.44

9 6.22

10 7.00


Happy to go into detail with anyone about the reasoning but for now will leave my reasoning out.


-hyper

> "Thus a sample answer might be (A) negative $.25

> (B) plus $3 (C) plus $4.50"

>

> Okay, I'll go with those.


You must be a smoker.

I tried to rate all nine positions to come up with answers to David's three questions. Upon reflection, the next seat after UTG may jump up a bit more then I rate it (and other positions reduced a bit) since in this position you can raise or reraise the UTG limper or raiser with big hands.


Regards,


Rick

a. 1.50 b.5.75 c. 8.25

$1.90, $3.20, $4.60

Rick,


Glad you've been following my pre-zip advice.


Nick