hand from SUper Monday

[funshinebear]

You have 62o in the BB with 1000 in chips. Blnids are 15-30. 4 players limp including the SB and you see the flop. Flop is 862 with 2 clubs. Let's assume you check, and next to act bets 90, next guy calls and button gose allin for 800. The SB folds,what would you do? Do you go with it or fold?

[MisterKing]

Look at your decision in terms of risks vs rewards. If there is other poker to play -- and online there always is -- make the decision that leads to the best overall expected value. There's 1110 (120 PF + 90 + 800) in the pot, and its 800 to you to call. If you 1.) think the "next guy" is going to fold if you call, and 2.) also think that you're more than a 41% favorite to win (your call of 800 will end up being 41% of the total pot), you need to call.

I say you need to be more than a 41% favorite because you need to set the bar higher for calling an all-in raise than you do for making it. This concept is outlined in TPFAP, I think.

Frankly, it looks very possible that your opponent has a set, an open-ended straight draw, or a flush draw of some kind. Since everyone limped pre-flop, I'd say its less likely that he's holding a huge overpair (he would have raised that PF) or a monster flush draw (again, AKs is getting a raise PF).

Against the flush draw, you're about a 60% favorite (give or take a few %), and you're a little better against the straight draw. If he's got a set, you're in trouble, particularly if that set will make a higher boat than you if and when the board pairs (set of 8's). If he's got a set of 6's or 2's, you're cooked, since any boat you get will make your opponent's hand become quads.

Personally, I fold this. The rule is: you don't do broke in an unraised pot. You've invested a paltry 30 chips to see this flop, and you'e hardly looking like a clear favorite, given your opponent's actions. If he did limp with a big overpair, or a huge flush draw, then a call is warranted. Otherwise, save your chips for a better spot and move on.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's got a set of 6's or 2's, you're cooked, since any boat you get will make your opponent's hand become quads.


[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, how can he make quads when Hero holds the card he needs. Hero is screwed against 88 or 66 but has a couple outs againt 22 (the 2 6s).

I probably call, but thats becasue I am bad. The all-in guy has a flush draw here most of the time.