Calling an all in with AK

[Tosh]

Seat 3: MP ( $1395 )
Seat 4: CO ( $2285 )
Seat 6: Button ( $2240 )
Seat 7: Tosh27o ( $1245 )
Seat 9: BB ( $1250 )
Seat 10: UTG ( $1585 )

Blinds(50/100), I have AKo, folded to CO who goes all in and I fold.

[durron597]

This is very player dependant. How aggressive was the CO?

[Jason Strasser]

Autocall for me. No question. It's not close for my game at all. I suppose that in theory the reason you folded is because your opponent will typically play a crappy low pair like this. But it doesn't take too many times for your opponent to have AQ-Ax, Kx, where you don't mind the coinflip here and there.

-Jason

[Irieguy]

Hmmm. I'm usually the one trying to convince people to fold AK... but I think this one's a pretty clear call. Even though he's not a big chip leader, he has enough chips and knows that everybody's trying to hang on to the extent that his raising standards should include a whole bunch of dominated hands and reasonable dogs to your AK.

He's likely to push with most, if not all, pairs (72 hands), AK-AT and probably a few smaller suited aces (about 70 hands as well,) and if his style is such that he would push more aggressively than that, you are quite likely to be far ahead and almost certain to not be far behind. Great opportunity for a double-up.

You're 6-handed and at some point you'll need some chips to mount a run at the money with a chance.

Irieguy

[durron597]

Actually, hang on. This is party, right? Where the blinds are about to become 100/200? Forget my initial reply, you don't have time to wait for a better spot. Call.

[ctdan]

With your stack, you have to call. As a matter of fact, in almost any situation in a one-table tourney, I think a call is in order.

[Lori]

Hmmm. I'm usually the one trying to convince people to fold AK... but I think this one's a pretty clear call. Even though he's not a big chip leader, he has enough chips and knows that everybody's trying to hang on to the extent that his raising standards should include a whole bunch of dominated hands and reasonable dogs to your AK.


Ditto.

Lori

[ZeeJustin]

Call, not close.

[Tosh]

Right ok I won't even bother looking further into this one.

FWIW my reasoning was that everytime I can ever remember calling here I'm shown 22 and up.

[stupidsucker]

Dont know if you are even checking back on this thread or not, but I will have at it as well. I will take the other side of the argument.

First of all. If I am faced with this situation the first thing I do is look at WHEN the blinds will be moving up. IF the blinds just started at this level then I think its an easy one to let go.

Here is why.

If he pushed with premium cards (AA,KK,AK) you are way behind or dead even. In this case you lose a lot more then you ever have to gain.

If he pushed with a pair 22-QQ then you are a coinflip and behind. Sure this is nearly 50/50 but you are still behind, and there is still a small % chance that the BB has a calling hand too. ALSO make an important note that if he has those hands then he played this poorly.(this could be argued) He is being too agressive with the blinds too small for that kind of play.(TT-QQ may be ok for this) If this is the case then you can probably expect more of this from him, and he will bust out or bust someone else shortly.

Your only hope is that he has Ax. If this is the case then you are in a dominating position, but how often will someone play A2-A9 this way? Based on the amount of chips in play this has to be at least a $50+5. I dont think many players will play Ax this way at this level, and if they do then like I said before they are heading for bust or to bust someone.

OK so how bout those blinds? when are they moving up?

If they are moving up very soon then you will be in great stealing position for the next couple of hands.

If they are moving up late(will you be a blind again before they change) then you are certainly in no rush.

Wrost case blind wise is they will be moving up on the exact moment you are the BB again. I always try to keep track of this. If this happens you have hardly any good stealing attempts comming up, and you will be pissing away your chips in the BB in a few hands. IN this situation this is a quick call.

Keep in mind that if you win this hand after a call then you still only have roughly a 60% chance to get ITM based soley on your own stack size vs the other stack sizes. No one is extremly short stacked. You wont have a huge stack yourself. Based on this stat, IF it is a coinflip then you have aproximatly a 30% chance to win the coinflip and go on to the money. I dont like those odds.

Summary.

I dont think it was a bad play to let this go at all. I dont think this is an auto call unless the blinds are going to painfully be on your ass at exactly the wrong moment. Cards have no memory, so letting a good hand go in a situation like this doesnt mean you have had you wont see it again soon.

My advice may not be perfect at all, but I think I make some valid points. I by no means think that folding here will cost you much money in the long run at all. If you have no read then why risk it?

[Tosh]

Can't remember about the blinds but I will say I hate calling all my chips with a passion so strong that it makes my skin blister. I wanted to be sure he'd push a hand like Ax regularly, I wasn't, so I let it go.

[stupidsucker]

Then I think you made the best choice.

Had you called and missed you would have been very very upset with yourself. This is not good for poker. By folding you may regret it down the road if you dont make the money, but its not fair to do that to yourself because you cant predict the future.

I can not see at all how this situation is a no brain call every time because calling doesnt have any guaronteed results for the plus and folding doesnt do any harm.

I am much happier going out on a push then I am a call.

[Jason Strasser]

Tosh,

I know for a fact that at the higher level party sngs not calling here is wrong.

[Tosh]

I find it hard to believe you're wrong, and at the time I found it hard to believe then too, but ... well I guess I convinced myself. Normally I call, but this time I just felt I should fold.

I am not a big fan of Party SNGs, shallow stacks are not my thing, but I still think the various factors make them more profitable than Stars.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
I know for a fact that at the higher level party sngs not calling here is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong in terms of winning the hand or wrong in terms of winning the tourny?

I normally hate being in marginal situations, but I've started to call all-ins more frequently now. Before, I'd think "why risk my entire stack when I may be in a marginal situation?" Lately, I've been more aggressive when calling all-ins. My line of thinking is more in terms of when am I going to be in a better position to double-up? Stealing blinds is surving, but doubling up is how you win these bad boys.

Let's say the blinds where T100/T200 and you werer in the SB with AJ -- exact same siutation--most people would call here. Probably with even worse.

So, I'd prefer this marginal situation to other future more marginal situations. Autocall.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say the blinds where T100/T200 and you werer in the SB with AJ -- exact same siutation--most people would call here. Probably with even worse.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would muck AJ so fast, and then forgot I even had it. (Unless I was severly short stacked)

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]

I would muck AJ so fast, and then forgot I even had it. (Unless I was severly short stacked)

[/ QUOTE ]

Had what?

[C M Burns]

Perhaps this is exactly what has been lacking in my sng play. Normaly I would fold here, thinking especially at an earlier stage I do not want to call allin since each time you do you multiply your cahnces of busting out. So here on average you will be about a 60% favorate, and even if you double up on average you will almost cirtianly be allin for a showdown at least once more in a similar spot, and you chances of winning both are <40%, so given this you would have to play perfectly to have any chance of being itm enough to be profitable.

But pehaps these earlier risks are worth it, given the blinds get so high even b4 the money the only real advantage a good palyer has is to get ahold of chips at an earlier stage and play aggresively with them. So that I guess is the rationale for calling, so I guess I will try these sorts of plays and see if they pay off.