fold or call???

[Phill S]

ive tried to retrive this hand off of ladbrokes playcheck system, but im not finding it and its not having any. ill try and reconstruct it for you. apologies for the dodgy layout. but this is basicly how it went:

reads are pretty shaky. nothing particularly negative, no maniacs here, but no Cloutiers here either.

stacks for the four left (standard payout for top three):
big stack 1 (SB) approx 8K
me (BB) 950
Big stack 2 (UTG) approx 5K
Small Stack (Button) 650

blinds are 150/300, no ante

UTG folds, Button all in (650), SB folds,

you hold 25o

if you call you have 300 left for a 150SB. if you fold you are shortstack 800 after SB, verse next smallest at 1100.

by the time the blinds get back round to you they are up to 200/400 and the next smallest stack will be in the SB, so will only post 200 when they go up

do you call or do you fold here and why?

ill tell you what i did and why later...

Phill

[MeanGreenTT]

I damn sure don't have the depth of experience or base of knowledge that everyone else here does but I know you shouldn't just call....it's either fold or all-in at this point, I least I think (hope) :lol:

I would most likely fold and save my chips for hopefully a little better of a hand, however a case could be made to go all-in because the SB may be thinking he can take it with a bet disguised as "his best chance"...and in that case, your 25o is just as good against his "any two" cards.

However, I'd still most likely fold (and may have to change my method of play if/when in this situation) because I'm thinking he's gonna try and get his chips in with his best possible at that point....damn, you have me 2nd guessing myself now :lol:

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
I damn sure don't have the depth of experience or base of knowledge that everyone else here does but I know you shouldn't just call....it's either fold or all-in at this point, I least I think (hope) :lol:


[/ QUOTE ]

sorry. if its not clear i can but apologise

he went all in, i have him covered (just). its the bubble and the other two have folded in this hand.

so its call his all in, or fold. im sure you made your position very clear. anyone else?

Phill
i noticed that i forgot to knock off the BB you lose if you fold. so if you do you have 500 left after the SB (assuming you fold)

[parappa]

I fold. I still have enough chips that I don't need to double him up. If I had 400 or something , I'd make the pot-odds call. With 650 (it looks like) after the blinds, you're not as desparate as it looks, and button only ends up at 1100, which hardly puts him on easy street.

[MeanGreenTT]

[ QUOTE ]
he went all in, i have him covered (just). its the bubble and the other two have folded in this hand.

so its call his all in, or fold. im sure you made your position very clear. anyone else?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I fully understood...sorry for trying to help.

[Phill S]

i meant no back hander to it, i guess i missread your post and thought you thought he raised me (hence the all in or fold not call bit)

and for the made your position clear i paraphrased based on your previous post with the assumption you misread my post (ie you made it clear youd fold it)

again, nothing meant by what i said (not in the way you took it).

Phill

[MeanGreenTT]

cool...no worries, I just don't want to offend anyone being new and all, I know how forums can be sometimes /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Granite]

I fold. Things are getting desperate, but not that desperate. I figure button is getting desperate and trying to steal, but your cards aren't the best to call his all in. I would for slightly better cards to push with.

What cash lvl sng was this?

Granite

[stripsqueez]

fold

your a very small chance if you call and lose - your plainly an underdog if you do call although the SB should be pushing with a lot of hands

you get to see 3 more hands by folding and as someone else said there is still plenty of pressure on the other small stack

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
What cash lvl sng was this?

[/ QUOTE ]

it was a 20+2 on ladbrokes

Phill

[Phill S]

ok. surprise surprise. in the 30 seconds to decide i decided against you guys and called.

ok. heres what i thought, please, analise and generally tell my im wrong.

the short stack here isnt particularly poor. i dont think he has a monster, but i know he has something.

i quickly looked over the odds i was getting to the pot and it was 500 to win 1100 i thought it sounded about right so mathematically it wasnt too bad (interesting thing is, ive simulated the outcome and its right to 3%)

now im assuming he has high cards, probably an ace. if he has a pair im very sunk, but this is poker. its all a gamble.

but im gonna lose about 2 in 3 times.

what swayed me largely was this. if i dont knock him out, i have to rely on others to do so. or at least not knock me out when im forced all in in 4 hands time.

something else i noted was i wasnt all in, a chip and a chair and all that. final factor is if i win im up to about 2K and still have a shot at higher.

i called
he showed AT

i won when i hit a 2 and he hit nothing.

a few hands later i made a similar move with 98s verse what i knew was an ace when the BB swallowed a huge chunk of my stack. he had AK and i won that encounter. i then fought on and won first.

now i know i was taking a big risk, but i feel the third alone would be reward enough.

please, flame away. was my thinking heavily flawed, i know this is a one off, but was the play that bad.

Phill

[stripsqueez]

i think pot odds are pretty much irrelevant to this question

you say your a 33% chance to win this hand and make the money - sounds reasonable - i would guess your a 45% chance to make the money if you fold - you could lose and still make the money but thats a bit of a miracle

i dont think your chances at the places higher than third comes into the equation a lot because there arent many chips at stake in the bigger picture

i still like fold

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]
please, analise

[/ QUOTE ]

We're here to help. But there are limits... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[rybones]

are your from Philly?