Win Rate: B&M vs. Online

[Sparks]

Simple question. A win rate of 1BB/hour (even 2BB/hour) has long been given as a standard rate for good limit hold 'em players in a B&M setting. Yet for online play, the standard is wins/100 hands. From what I've read on this site, the good players make 1BB/100 hands, and usually less. First, why isn't the standard set at wins/35 hands so we could compare apples to apples regarding the well know B&M win rates? And second, why are the win rates for online players so low? If DavidRoss (or whomever) averages .6BB/100 hands, that is equivalent to ".2BB/hour" so to speak. He (and others) are winning players, no doubt, but it would seem they are below the win rate of the old school B&M players.

The game is the same, yet the win rates are lower online. What gives? Are online players better? Does multi-tabling reduce profit? Or do I just suck at math?

Any thoughts would be appreciated. Or, a link to a thread which discusses this. I confess, the search engine here frustrates the heck out of me.

Sparks

[Michael Davis]

"From what I've read on this site, the good players make 1BB/100 hands, and usually less."

I don't think this is true. Most players who obviously know what they're talking about who have posted their winrates make much more than this. I think if you find the winrates of the very good players here, you will see that all of them make more per table per hour than they could likely make at a B&M room.

The reason to use 100 hands is for simplicity. And money made per hand is a much more accurate indication of how good of a poker player you are. There are less "real life" downtime factors in online play and results per 100 is more, ahem, pure than results per hour.

-Michael

[bisonbison]

Most online players can play about 60 hands/table/hour.

Most live players can play about 30 hands/table/hour.

At any given level, live play is easier than online play.

Some online players have the ability to play up to 4, 6, or 8 tables at once. Live players play 1 table at a time.

Adjust your predictions accordingly.

[Sparks]

Hey Bison,

Let's assume B&M players play 33 hands per hour to make the math easier. If the online games were exactly the same difficulty as B&M games, then profit rate stats "per 100 hands" for equivalent players should be three times the "per hour", or per 33 hands, rate. Assuming excellent B&M players make 1.5 BB/33 hands, then excellent online players should make 4.5BB/100 hands. And this is no matter how many tables they are playing.

If, as you contend, online games are more difficult at all levels, how much more difficult are they? .5BB/33 hands more difficult? 1BB/33 hands more difficult? If the latter (and I'm interested in your estimate of how much more difficult they are) then the good online players should be making at least 1.5 BB/100 hands, and even 2BB/100 hands if he is "as good" as a 2BB/hour B&M player.

Is anyone making this rate at online games? Thanks again for your thoughts.

Sparks

[pokerjo22]

Obviously it depends on the sites involved and the casinos, but my guestimate is that B&M games play like three times the limit that online games play. In other words, 6/12 B&M plays like a 2/4 online, and 15/30 B&M plays like a 5/10 online.

[mmcd]

Are you guys really suggesting that live 15/30 or 20/40 games are actually EASIER than the Party 15/30 game. I think the opposite is true. Live lower-mid limit games can play somewhat the same as the Party 15 game, but only in good games on weekends when there are like 4+ completely clueless players in the game. I'd say if anything online games (at least below the 30/60 level) are like lower limit B+M games. The Party 15 game might play like a live 4/8 or 5/10 game. It certainly does not play like a live 50/100 game.

[BlueBear]

No way, it's my experience for equilavent limits between B&M and online, online is always much tougher. Where I play, 10/20 B&M plays like a 1/2 online.

[pokerjo22]

I honestly can't say, cos I don't play party 15/30. But the 6/12 at the card rooms I've been to plays like a 2/4 online. And the 15/30 plays like a 5/10 online. At least here in the Bay Area it seems to, but there's people with waaay more experience than me. It was just my guess like I say.

[mmcd]

Try playing in B+M 20/40 game at like 2:30 on a Wednesday afternoon. Your gonna see that the majority of the players in the game either play for a living (they aren't necessarily great) or could if they wanted to. How can you say that these games are easier than online games. Online I see people make plays and draw to hands that a semi-reasonable B+M wouldn't even think about doing.

Things I've seen in the Party 15 game that I've NEVER (or almost never) seen in a live game 15/30 or higher:

Flop is J44 guy calls on flop and 2 bets (1 at a time) on the turn w A3 and caps it on the river when he hits a backdoor wheel-he loses to my JJ

Gut 3 bets me on the river w 63o (that he limped utg) on a 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

board. He loses to my J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Guy raises AK on the turn with a 2275 board. He calls the turn 3-bet and a river bet and loses to AA.

Guys routinely go 4 bets on the river with the idiot end of a straight when theres a 3 flush on the board.

A few days ago I raised utg w AQ and got 2 cold callers. I flopped an A, but whiffed on my attempted turn checkraise. I check the river too hoping to induce a bluff. They respectively hold: 93s and T6o

I could go on and on and on here. It is my opinion that a great portion of middle limit online players are fairly ridiculous, and even of those who play somewhat reasonably most are fairly sloppy. They pay off when their beat, miss bets when they're ahead, make ill-advised bluff attempts, and sometimes fold the best hand.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
From what I've read on this site, the good players make 1BB/100 hands, and usually less

[/ QUOTE ]

This just isn't true. Most good players can make 3BB/100 pretty easy until the highest limits offered.

Even if they are below 3BB/100 much of the loss comes from multi-tabling and taking their 2BB/100 4-6x as fast.

[Michael Davis]

"Guy raises AK on the turn with a 2275 board. He calls the turn 3-bet and a river bet and loses to AA."

This is one of the fishiest things you've seen? This hand might have been well played.

-Michael

[Sparks]

Thanks Nottom, didn't realize that. I guess I was sort of waiting for someone to, well agree, that a 3BB/100 hands win rate is equivalent to 1BB/hour in a B&M, which is the historical standard for quality play (2BB/hour is also floated). It assumes of course that B&M and online games are equal in difficulty, which apparently does not have a consensus answer.

Thanks for the enlightenment.

Sparks

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
"Guy raises AK on the turn with a 2275 board. He calls the turn 3-bet and a river bet and loses to AA."

This is one of the fishiest things you've seen? This hand might have been well played.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Not after having his utg raise 3-bet. Going to showdown maybe ok here against some opponents, but raising the turn there and paying off a 3-bet and a river bet w/ A high is just wanton chip-spewing.

I'm not saying its one of the fishiest things I've ever seen, It's just an example of how a typical mid-limit online player is much worse than a typical B+M mid-limit player. Live I'd expect a check-call on the flop and a check-fold on the turn in this situation (assuming I was the preflop 3-bettor).

[Lawrence Ng]

Hi mmcd,

I think I have been seeing my problem all along with why I am losing online. I play the lower limit games which have been tougher. I don't play anything above 5-10 online which are a lot tougher than my local 30-60 games. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I have had a few acquaintances tell me about how good the 15-30 Party is but I have never tried it. I think I will and just try playing 1 or 2 tales max this time. I am no guud at multi-tabling. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Nate tha' Great]

This calculus gets pretty screwed up because the Party 15/30 games aren't significantly tougher than the Party 3/6 games.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
This calculus gets pretty screwed up because the Party 15/30 games aren't significantly tougher than the Party 3/6 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats probably true.

I think in the lower limits online though (as in live play) as a default the majority of the players are more passive. I think weak/tight and weak/loose are the main player types at 5/10 and below. Theres still some LAGs and probably a few TAGs but I think theres far more of both of these types in the 10/20 and above games. In the party 15 game, I can open raise utg and routinely expect cold-calls from hands like KJo QJo AJo ATo KTo Axo Axs 22-88, and some times even random trash hands. Live I only expect to see this routinely when there are several very live players in the game.

[mikimaus]

The more or less lowest limits are higher offline. The old time winners played against monkeys.

[jayrutz2]

I agree. Live play is MUCH tougher. Players are tighter, why because they have to look at chips, bluffing is harder because I can see you, and players more focused. I think the gap lowers as limits go up, but think 3/6 online is a MUCH easier game than 3/6 live, same for 6/12...Now I don't play high limit, but I'd venture to say from obs that once you get to 30/60 there is virtually no difference...

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the gap lowers as limits go up, but think 3/6 online is a MUCH easier game than 3/6 live, same for 6/12

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong.

2/4 or 3/6 is often the lowest limit available in a casino. The play there is often worse than a typicla .5/1 table online.

I haven't logged a lot of B&M time, but I've played most limits up through 10/20 and I've never felt like the game was any tougher than a typical 3/6 party game.

[sublime]

I haven't logged a lot of B&M time, but I've played most limits up through 10/20 and I've never felt like the game was any tougher than a typical 3/6 party game.

I have logged a decent amount of time at live 10/20. It measures with 2/4 in terms of "profit per hand". 3/6 online(party/paradise etc) is tougher than 10/20 live.

[swami]

go play 2/4 in AC. you will see at least 6 to every flop. Tell me that is tougher than online. Low limit live is full of people who have almost no experience at poker, except for wild home games and TV.

Should be reply to jayrutz

[jayrutz2]

At end of the day, it just depends on the table!!

[mmcd]

I'd agree that low-limit is probably tougher online. Although if you take the lowest limit offered in a B+M cardroom, the level of play would probably be similar to the lowest limit offered on a particular online site. I think at the 10/20-30/60 level, online games tend to be easier. At the 30/60 level or above, online games tend to be the same, or maybe even tougher than their B+M counterparts.

[vetman81]

[ QUOTE ]
You are wrong.

2/4 or 3/6 is often the lowest limit available in a casino. The play there is often worse than a typicla .5/1 table online.


[/ QUOTE ]

I couldnt agree more. At the local casino here, the lowest they have is 4/8 and it is as bad as PP .5/1. They also have an O8 5/10 game that plays like PP .5/1. There is no way that online 4/8 or 5/10 games are this bad.

[Sparks]

I might as well chime in on whether B&M play is more difficult than online play, even though it's not really the original subject of this post. I've played a ton of B&M middle limit games in Cali and Vegas over the years. Several months ago I started playing online middle limits (matching my career B&M hand totals in like the first month, or so it seemed /images/graemlins/smile.gif), and I have to say I think the online games are tougher.

Here's my theory on why: Online games move twice as fast, and coupled with multi-tabling, the number of hands per hour is incredible. So, players quickly find themselves being much more selective in their starting hands, and in how far they go with those hands. That's basically it. Because B&M games are so slow, players find themselves playing more hands, and chasing too long with them.

The original question I asked would seem to support that conclusion. Nowhere do I see win rates for online players in the 3BB to 6BB per 100 hands range, which would be equivalent on a per hand basis to a win rate of 1 or 2BB per hour player. Of course meanwhile, even if a player is making .5BB/100 hands, and playing 4 tables, he's making more per hour than than a 1BB/hour B&M player.

There's one other thing I think makes online games more difficult. With assorted software, opponents are able to track very precisely your statistical tendencies, and that is an advantage to them. I have no idea how many BisonBison's there are out there (god bless ya man), but that someone knows that I call 22.8% of the time PF, and check AK from the big blind 46.3% of the time with 5 or more limpers ...just plain scares me!

Nobody breaks out a note pad at the Bike prior to calling a three-bet on the flop with a 2-flush on board.

Cheers,

Sparks

[jayrutz2]

What is the best player tracking sw to use for ring games on Ulitmate?

[Duke]

[ QUOTE ]
This just isn't true. Most good players can make 3BB/100 pretty easy until the highest limits offered.

Even if they are below 3BB/100 much of the loss comes from multi-tabling and taking their 2BB/100 4-6x as fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll second this. 1 bb/100 for even 8 tabling is pretty weak.

~D