Time to move up to next level?

[MarvinHarrison]

I've been playing on-line for a little more than a month now, .05/.10 limit hold'em games at Pacific Poker. In that time I've turned $25 ($20 + 25% bonus) into $60.05, with a win rate of 12.5 BB/100.

I know I am at the standard 300 BB threshold to move up to .10/.20, however I have been on such a hot streak lately that I am wondering if my success is a bit misleading. In the past week and a half, I've had 8 winning sessions in a row, to bring my BR from $35 to $60, with the following BB/100 rates per session over 947 hands: 102.4, 9.8, 34.8, 24.6, 26.9, 29.2, 14.0, 13.9.

Should I be concerned that I've just been really lucky lately? I'm pretty sure at these miniscule limits it's not a huge deal either way whether I move up now or not, however I am trying to do this as correctly as possible, with steady improvement of my game and long-term success being top priorites over all others. I am wondering if I should stay where I'm at for a little while for a little more confirmation that my reaching 300 BBs for .10/.20 is not merely a temporary peak.

Thanks in advance for any comments.

[krubban]

With the quality of play at pacifics microlimits your 300BB roll should be sufficient. At least thats what i think, hot streak or not.

[Bukem_]

Those two limits are virtually the same, give the next one a try.

Lucky streaks really pay off at these tables since they will call you anything.

[burntazure]

Hi Marvin:

Congrats on yr success. I began a little while ago on .5/1 limits & I know I was happy once I achieved 300BB in winnings for the next level. But, one important detail that differs is that I played 10k+ hands at that level.

Since you're playing at very small limits you probably can move up quicker (i.e. playing less than 10 k hands). I think this is due to the fact that the frequency of encountering bad players is much higher at these limits.

You've played about 1k hands: small sample size.

But, you are playing low limits. I vote move up. I strongly believe the talent at the next limit will be similar.

However, on an extreme viewpoint: maybe you actually suck at poker & are just getting lucky. This possibility indicates stay at yr current level.

So, I think a compromise is in order. Why don't you play 4k more hands at yr current level? It shouldn't take all that long (I realize you can't multitable at Pacific). Since your overall goal is long-term success this might be a good compromise.

One important thing to note is that streaks can last for 5k-10k hands... bad streaks, good streaks. Averaged together, over the long haul, these streaks indicate yr winrate.

So be careful. Regardless of how long you decide to stay at yr current limit you must have a plan to drop back down if the going gets really bad once you move up. Establish a threshold for loss at the new level (this should be greater than 300bb at the old level).

Concentrate on improving yr game; post hands in the microlimit forum when you are unsure of yr play. good luck.

[MarvinHarrison]

Thanks for the responses.

Well, a move up in limits is postoned now as I played a brutal .05/.10 session today and took a significant loss (about -65BB). Regardless of whether it was a normal negative swing or poor play, I have a little work to do to get back up to 300 BB for .10/.20.

Just to clarify, I've played about 3k hands total. The 1k number is for my (now ended) 8 session winning streak over the past week and a half. I realize that 3k is still a very small sample size, and I definitely see the merit in going at least 5k hands to be even a little more confident that it's not all luck. However, since it sounds like I shouldn't be overly concerned about the difference in the jump to .10/.20, if and when I make it back up to 300 BB for it, I'll probably go ahead and make the leap with however many hands I have under my belt at that time (heck, it may even take me another 2k hands).

[helpmeout]

Hey Marvin I also started in a similar way to you.

Since you are still new I'd suggest trying to learn a bit more in the lowest of micro limits and experiencing a few bad runs.

Playing for a month really doesnt say anything, the hours and the study are more important. A month could mean 150hours or it could mean 20 hours.

12BB/100 is up there but unless you have had some really bad sessions then it doesn't mean much. You gotta ride a few bad waves and let it stabilize a bit.

Once you have got through a bad run and regained your cash then you can move up.

The higher limits at Pacific are only slightly better but if you are still learning when you move up your figures will still be good.

BTW make sure you set yourself an amount where you move back down so you dont go bust.

[Wahoo91]

At those levels 300BB is immaterial, so I would recommend moving up as soon as you feel you understand the game well enough to be a winner at the next level.

I would spend a little bit of time at .10/.20, but then move quickly up to .25/.50 and plant myself there until you have built up $300 to move to the .50/1.00 game.

[MarvinHarrison]

Hey helpmeout, thanks for the reply. What do you think qualifies as a really bad session, as far as # of hands, # of BBs lost, etc?

[helpmeout]

I couldn't tell you for sure as I havent been playing much longer than you. But you will know when you start going on tilt and having doubts.

I had lost over 60BB in 5 days which might seem small for the regulars but it is bad enough when you are new and especially when you are losing everyday.

This was when I had moved up to 25c/50c I had also lost a few MTT and SNGs and was down to 200BB. However I recovered very quickly.

I dont think it matters so much the size of your downswing but how long it lasts and how you cope with it.

I also had a rough start at 10c/20c I was learning so many new tricks my game suffered a bit. Which is likely to be a common problem with new players.

Once you feel confident you have experienced some of these swings then move up and keep moving up when you have that 300BB.

When you reach a level where you feel your bankroll isnt enough then increase it but at micros 300BB is heaps.

[RED_RAIN]

First off burntazure's post hits good on most of things.

- I believe limits below .5/1 are all gonna be pretty much the same with little value in staying at any of these levels.

- Your sample size is extremely small, can't look at many of the stats to mean much

- The way you track your BB/100 from session to session means nothing and you shouldn't do this. Track it by overall. Hell I can show where I had 200 BB/100 sessions which mean nothing. Overall is the only important number. Unless you can break up your 90,000 hands in groups of 30,000 once you get that many to see improvement of play.

- It's true, steaks good and bad can go easily 2k-5k and often enough 10k-15k.

- When looking at making stabs, many players move up, if they lose 100-150 BBs then they move back down. If you multi-table (let's say 4 tables), go 3 at old level, 1 at new level.

Okay now on to what I want to add.

Negative Swings At Levels .5/1 and below:
I will state it here, and I still feel strongly. Some people talk about going on 75 BB-100 BB swings at these levels. I played 35k hands at .5/1 (first level) and my largest down swing was 70 BBs. Now yes I wasn't starting cold as I understood basic poker but not limit hold'em. If you are playing at these levels and you have 75 BBs or more of a swing, rarely I think it's the card or your good play being turned and rivered every hand. Let's get real. It's actually the player who isn't as good as they think they are. If they are thinking of moving up, don't cause you got lots to learn. Anyone who is going on these types of swings just does not have the fundamentals down yet. I feel people should learn cheap, then you can move very fast through the other limits cause you got a strong base.

I will copy what I wrote a bit ago for beginners.


As you said, concentrate on working a certain part of the game, you can afford to do this at micro limits since even if other parts aren't there, you won't lose (if you even do) a lot.

I would go by this way of order (You can move some around):
1. Preflop - Get this down, what do you do with ATs, AJo, QJo, QTs, A9s, 9s, 8s, 2s-6s, if you can't answer these for any position, any situation of limipers/raises preflop, you don't know enough yet
2. Drawing/Free Cards - Gotta learn when it's right to raise for a free card and when it's better to just call and get others to limp behind you to disguise your hand
3. Post flop - How to play Q6o when you hit top pair in the BB, how do you know when you are beat and when to call down
4. Check/Raise - When to do this, if you hit a monster, do you do it on flop, turn, river
5. Value Betting - When do you keep betting when you think it may be close that you may be beat
6. Player Reads - How do you read your PokerTracker stats etc

You can get a lot of free help by reading and posting on these forums. In the Micro Forum be careful, just because someone posts something doesn't mean it's right. There are a lot of posters there that don't know the correct answer or reasoning.

Learn why you do things, don't just memorize hands and plays. If you know why you do a certain play, then you can adapt when the cards a little different, or situation is different. This helped me a lot to move up faster.

I'm not sure what level you are playing. I think the best limit to play where you can learn and profit quickly is .5/1 at empire/party. 1/2 is a lot different and harder I think. 2/4 is very aggressive. .5/1 is extremely beatable, so if you aren't here, and can afford it, move here.

You can also search in the archives on topic such as drawing. I think a lot of people misplay when to go for a free card or not, when trying to maximize the amount won when you do win.

Knowing when to be able to bet second pair the whole way is also important instead of only betting when you have top pair.

Then how to logicallly narrow down a person's hand to a range of hands, then to a few hands, then down to less than 5 hands, then down to the cards themselves, then to the suits also.

If money is no issue, I think .5/1 is a great level to learn and large enough to make a bankroll quick. If you don't wish to invest money into poker yet, lower levels are fine, but then don't go crazed at moving up at lightning speed. Often people look at their bankroll and not their skill set just to move up real fast and then lose it at higher levels where they don't have the skills to win.

[MarvinHarrison]

Wow, thanks for all of that info, RED_RAIN. Really good stuff.

Overall, it sounds like I should not be overly worried about when to move up through the ranks below .50/1, as long as money permits me being at each level along the way. However, once at .50/1, I should be very careful about moving up from there, playing a crapload of hands and putting great emphasis on being reasonably sure that I am a winning player beating the game through skill and not just on a lucky streak that has built my BR.

Just a note on tracking stats per session: I only posted those stats to quantify what I was talking about as far as my hot streak to 300BBs at the next level. The #s I look at closely are total hands played, total BB/100, and BR...and even those I know don't mean much of anything at 3k hands.

Thanks again for the replies.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
Negative Swings At Levels .5/1 and below:
I will state it here, and I still feel strongly. Some people talk about going on 75 BB-100 BB swings at these levels. I played 35k hands at .5/1 (first level) and my largest down swing was 70 BBs. Now yes I wasn't starting cold as I understood basic poker but not limit hold'em. If you are playing at these levels and you have 75 BBs or more of a swing, rarely I think it's the card or your good play being turned and rivered every hand. Let's get real. It's actually the player who isn't as good as they think they are. If they are thinking of moving up, don't cause you got lots to learn. Anyone who is going on these types of swings just does not have the fundamentals down yet. I feel people should learn cheap, then you can move very fast through the other limits cause you got a strong base.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your variance is higher vs. poor players (especially when playing aggressively vs. poor players), and the majority of people playing super-micro limits aren't very good, wouldn't it actually be easier to go on large swings at these levels? Telling someone who plays these limits and has gone on an 80+ BB downswing that they aren't as good as they think they are seems a bit presumptuous. You don't have to be very good to win long term at .05/0.10 - .25/.50, just not as bad as the majority of the players you face (which is a pretty common situation for any serious beginner to find themselves in).

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't have to be very good to win long term at .05/0.10 - .25/.50, just not as bad as the majority of the players you face (which is a pretty common situation for any serious beginner to find themselves in).

[/ QUOTE ]

This answers itself I think.

I'm talking about the person who thinks they have it pretty well figured out but still large swings at nano and micro limits. Not the average beginner.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm talking about the person who thinks they have it pretty well figured out but still large swings at nano and micro limits. Not the average beginner.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, that wasn't really my point. I'm saying that anyone playing nano-limits, beginner or expert, should theoretically experience larger swings than they do vs. better competition at higher limits. Therefore one shouldn't use a large 80+ BB swing at .25/.50 to judge whether they are ready to advance or not. Large downswings happen to just about everyone at one time or another, at any limit. Going through a large downswing early, at nano-limits (where it should actually be EASIER to go on large swings), is no reason to question your skill as a player, or your ability to win at higher limits (assuming you are a winning player despite whatever downswing you may have experienced).

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
should theoretically experience larger swings than they do vs. better competition at higher limits

[/ QUOTE ]

This is extremely wrong.

You put a excellent player to play .05/.10 limit for 100k hands and the same excellent player at 15/30 or 30/60 limit for 100k hands and the during the higher limit play the variance will be much much bigger.

I'm assuming you haven't played many different limits if this is really your opinion.

[magates]

Maybe you're right, I'm sure you have more experience than I do (I've only played up to 3/6 limit), but while I have no doubt that a good player's BB/100 hands would be higher vs. poor players than good players, I'm still far from convinced that their variance wouldn't be higher as well. That it wouldn't seems counter-intuitive, and goes against every opinion (other than yours) that I remember reading on the subject (mostly on 2+2 forums).

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
You put a excellent player to play .05/.10 limit for 100k hands and the same excellent player at 15/30 or 30/60 limit for 100k hands and the during the higher limit play the variance will be much much bigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are talking about variance in BB's won and lost, and not in dollars won and lost right? Because obviously swings in your bankroll will be larger at higher limits, but what we're talking about is swings in total BB's earned.

[helpmeout]

I think the negative swings woiuld be much more in higher limits because your BB rates would be so much smaller.

If you can make say 5bb/100 in 25c/50c and 1bb/100 in $2/$4 then wouldn't the swings be much higher in $2/$4 because your return is so much lower. You are only making 1BB/100 compared to 5.

It doesnt take much bad luck for you to start a real negative swing while when you are making 5/bb hour you need a much worse swing because a small swing will probably result in only breaking even.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the negative swings woiuld be much more in higher limits because your BB rates would be so much smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I guess I get it now, that's pretty much what Ed Miller said in another thread. Specifically he said that your losing streaks will be "more violent" vs. good players than vs. bad players because the higher winrate vs. good players will pull you out of a downslide faster.

Either way, I still don't think a downswing of 75+ BB at nano-limits means you aren't ready to move up, not when you're still a winning player and have the bankroll to support a higher limit.

[RED_RAIN]

Okay now we are in agreement