my NFL futures bets

[jwvdcw]

I just placed the following bets at betonusa.com. Tell me what you think of them.

Chi Bears to win their division at 10-1
Highest win total by any team, under 13.5(-180)
Team to win more games, Colts -.5 against Chiefs(-115)
Team to win more games, Bears +1.5 against Bills(even)
Will the Vikings make the playoffs, No(+140)
Will the Bucs make the playoffs, No(+105)
Buffalo Bills under 7.5 wins(+120)
Miami Dolpins under 8 wins(-145)

[ddollevoet]

How are the Bears going to win the division when tha Packers and the Vikings both beat them twice and they split with Detroit? I like this bet better in about 3 years.

[swimfan]

Don't like
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[bugstud]

I like the Bears bets as division plays more than anything else. Yeah, they could go 1-5, but they also could go 4-2 just about as easily.

[Michael Davis]

There is no such thing as the 3-year plan in the NFL. The massive turnover of players and coaches makes the gradual build of a powerhouse team unlikely. You used to be able to say things like, "The Bears have a lot of young talent, so they'll be good in three years." Today, all of that young talent might be on a different team next year.

-Michael

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
How are the Bears going to win the division when tha Packers and the Vikings both beat them twice and they split with Detroit? I like this bet better in about 3 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Vikings absolutely collapsed last year. They started out 6-0 IIRC, then faltered, and lost their last game to the ARIZONA CARDINALS to miss the playoffs. Their emotions can't be good, and I don't know how they'll react. Additionally, 2/3 of their RBBC are currently injured, and I'm not yet a believe in their 'improved' defense.

GB is also tough with Favre and Green, but I'm still not sold on any of their WRs or their defense.

Chicago is trying to mimic the St Louis/KC offense. I love Thomas Jones to have a break out year. He was great in the last few games of last year, and Chicago specifically targetted him for their offense. I think Gage can also have a breakout year, along with Grossman being a solid NFL QB. Their defense is also above average with Urlacher leading the charge. Don't forget that this team was 13-3 two years ago and that last year they didn't get to play any homes games, which is a big reason why they did so much worse. This year,they get to play home games again.

[ddollevoet]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no such thing as the 3-year plan in the NFL. The massive turnover of players and coaches makes the gradual build of a powerhouse team unlikely. You used to be able to say things like, "The Bears have a lot of young talent, so they'll be good in three years." Today, all of that young talent might be on a different team next year.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that the Bears are going to build a powerhouse. In fact, hte only thing I like about the Bearsa is Grossman.

I actually think that both the Packers and the Vikings will be much worse teams in 3 years. Favre will be retiring soon and the Packers seem to continually ignore their need for an eventual replacement. The Vikings are a different story. Moss and Culpepper are expensive. Moss will likely be dealt (per his request). He'll want to win a Super Bowl and the Vikings clearly haven't had what it takes to do that.