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View Full Version : Honey, we can't lose...I've got the perfect craps system.


pstripling
09-05-2004, 05:45 PM
Here is a story that I'm sure you will find humorous. This is an absolutley true story.

This story takes place about 10 years ago before I discovered casino poker. My wife and I, both 21, had been to vegas about 5 times. In fact that is where we were married. I loved the action. My wife could care less about gambling, but she thought it was cool when we would win enough to have a nice dinner or see a show. BTW we were staying downtown so a nice dinner, to us, cost 4.95 plus tip. Shows were free with the fun book coupon. We were real high rollers. But downtown was fun... the Plaza and Binions both had $1-$2 blackjack and $1 craps... so we could play a long time on a very limited bankroll.

Anyway, after making every dumb play in the book the first 4 times I decided to get serious about playing these games. I loved playing but hated losing. I knew some of them were beatable, but just didn't know how. I knew that all the games were based on mathematics and I had a good head for numbers so this seemed like a fun challenge. I didn't have the internet at the time, nor did I check the local bookstore for any gambling books (even though we were there at least twice a week) or do any other research. Part of this was out of embarrassment. The other part was greed... I just knew that there was a system out there that could take the casinos for serious money and I'd be damned if I thought it up and someone got out there first and broke every joint on the strip before I could get there.

So I sat around our condo in the evening watching TV and playing out hands of Blackjack or rolling dice and thinking. Then it struck me....the perfect system.... are you ready....

If you double your bet every time you lose on an even money game you eventually will win back all previous losses plus show a profit of 1 unit.

OMG, there it was, the path to riches... and I thought it up. Now to figure out which game...Roulette, Blackjack, or craps.

I never have liked Roulette (until I came up with the Ultimate Roulette System, and now I like it even less). Blackjack seemed to be a good choice but I knew that the deck could sometimes favor the dealer and I didn't want to be putting big money out there during those times. Craps seemed to be the game. Especially since I liked to bet the don't pass line, I could be playing with the house in theory.

This was just too good to be true. I started frantically rolling dice to see how things would turn out. My wife asked what I was doing and I waved her off, not wanting to get her hopes up before I had the hard data to support my discovery. Well, about 200 rolls later I was convinced. I shared my findings with my wife and since we lived in San Diego (only 5 hours by car), suggested we leave the next day for Vegas.

We took $512.00 as a bankroll. This was enough to cover a string of 9 losses in a row. This was just to be safe, in my exhaustive research the most losses that occured were 5 in a row, so almost enough to cover double seemed excessive but we wanted to play it safe. Our plan was to play $1.00 units until we tripled our bankroll then we would increase to $2.00 units and on and on.

Oh how I remember that fateful Friday night car ride out there. The plans we had. We were going to arrive at about 8PM and our goal for the night was to triple our bankroll... then we would start early and hit the casinos hard the next day. I figured we could pay off the car with Saturday's winnings and make a large dent in the mortgage with Sunday's. I recall the conversation like it was yesterday....
my beautiful wife asking me "How can the casinos allow someone to do this?"

"Well, its probably not something they ever thought of. Most people don't have the discipline. They aren't going to worry about losing $1.00 at a time anyway. But we have to be careful. We will only win 25 units from a table before we move on. The Plaza has 3 dollar tables and Binions has at least 8. I think a couple of the other casinos have dollar tables so this will give us a chance to check them out. Look, here comes Vegas right over this hill. They will never know what hit them. <font color="red"> insert evil laugh here </font> "

"Ok honey, it just seems a little too good to be true." my wife replied.

"I'm telling you hon, this is the perfect craps system, we can't lose!!! They've never seen anything like us." I stated matter of factly as the Vegas skyline came into view. We enjoyed the rest of the ride in by chatting about all the cool stuff we would buy, family members we would help out, etc..

Exactly 4 hours and 32 minutes later we were perusing the free HBO our hotel offered. I'll never forget the joy on the peoples faces who were playing the pass line during my last roll. Yes, thats right... I killed myself. I will never forget the jaded expressions of the dealers in Binion's or the bemused looks on the pit bosses faces as I slung those little cubes around. I'm sure I don't need to spell out exactly what happened.

On the plus side neither my wife nor I got barred from play at any of our favorite casinos, in fact many of the pit bosses wondered when we might be coming back.

I hope you found this story enjoyable. Painful as it was at the time, this is a very fond memory for us.

Out of curiosity what is the risk of ruin for these types of wagers, assuming an unlimited bankroll but a table limit of 1000 times the minimum bet?

Kips Bay Kid
09-05-2004, 06:00 PM
We have all come across the Martingale at one point in our young lives thinking it was "the system"

goldcowboy
09-05-2004, 06:48 PM
What?? You mean it doesn't work?? .... /images/graemlins/frown.gif

topspin
09-05-2004, 06:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity what is the risk of ruin for these types of wagers, assuming an unlimited bankroll but a table limit of 1000 times the minimum bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given an unlimited bankroll the risk of ruin is zero for any game.

However, the game is also not +EV so it isn't worth playing. Assume every time you win or go over the table limit you restart with a bet of $1. Note that since 2^9 = 512, you can play 10 times before reaching $1,024 and surpassing your table limit.

Then between $1 bets, you will lose $1,023 with probability 0.5^10, and win $1 with probability 1-0.5^10 -- hence your EV = 0.

Did you get to pick up anything nice with the comps? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

fnord_too
09-06-2004, 10:20 AM
Here's another fun system from days of old, it's called the cancelation system:

Write the number from 1-10 on a piece of paper.
Add the top and bottom number and place that amount on your favorite almost even money bet (say pass in craps).
If you win, cross off the top and bottom number.
If you lose, write the number wagered and lost on the bottom.
Repeat until all the numbers are crossed off.
Since when you lose you cross off two, and when you win you write one, you only have to win more than 33% of the time.
You are 55 units up when all the numbers are crossed off.

Though this too is doomed, but it should take a lot longer for you to go broke. In the short run, it is also much more likely to make money I think.

Oh, if you want a good book that covers this sort of stuff and is a fun read, pick up Scarnes Complete Guide to Gambling (may not be the exact title, but it's close). It's filled with math, the angles people play, systems, and great anecdotes. His poker advice is pretty simplistic (basicly play tight aggressive, no emphasis on pot odds, implied odds, bluffing or semi bluffing as I recall), but other than that he's fun to read.

Kips Bay Kid
09-07-2004, 01:02 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Here's another fun system from days of old, it's called the cancelation system:

Write the number from 1-10 on a piece of paper.
Add the top and bottom number and place that amount on your favorite almost even money bet (say pass in craps).
If you win, cross off the top and bottom number.
If you lose, write the number wagered and lost on the bottom.
Repeat until all the numbers are crossed off.
Since when you lose you cross off two, and when you win you write one, you only have to win more than 33% of the time.
You are 55 units up when all the numbers are crossed off.

Though this too is doomed, but it should take a lot longer for you to go broke. In the short run, it is also much more likely to make money I think.

Oh, if you want a good book that covers this sort of stuff and is a fun read, pick up Scarnes Complete Guide to Gambling (may not be the exact title, but it's close). It's filled with math, the angles people play, systems, and great anecdotes. His poker advice is pretty simplistic (basicly play tight aggressive, no emphasis on pot odds, implied odds, bluffing or semi bluffing as I recall), but other than that he's fun to read.

[/ QUOTE ]

confused, can you give an example? Let's say my number is 8, what do you do?

fnord_too
09-07-2004, 02:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's another fun system from days of old, it's called the cancelation system:

Write the number from 1-10 on a piece of paper.
Add the top and bottom number and place that amount on your favorite almost even money bet (say pass in craps).
If you win, cross off the top and bottom number.
If you lose, write the number wagered and lost on the bottom.
Repeat until all the numbers are crossed off.
Since when you lose you cross off two, and when you win you write one, you only have to win more than 33% of the time.
You are 55 units up when all the numbers are crossed off.

Though this too is doomed, but it should take a lot longer for you to go broke. In the short run, it is also much more likely to make money I think.

Oh, if you want a good book that covers this sort of stuff and is a fun read, pick up Scarnes Complete Guide to Gambling (may not be the exact title, but it's close). It's filled with math, the angles people play, systems, and great anecdotes. His poker advice is pretty simplistic (basicly play tight aggressive, no emphasis on pot odds, implied odds, bluffing or semi bluffing as I recall), but other than that he's fun to read.

[/ QUOTE ]

confused, can you give an example? Let's say my number is 8, what do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't understand the 8 part of your question. Here is an example:
First bet is 11 (1 + 10), if you win, you cross off the 1 and the 10 and your second bet is 11 (9+2). If you loose your first bet you write 11 on the bottom of the list and your second bet is 12 (11+1). You are always adding the top and bottom uncrossed numbers. When all the numbers are crossed off you start over (55 units ahead).

mostsmooth
09-07-2004, 03:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Here's another fun system from days of old, it's called the cancelation system:

Write the number from 1-10 on a piece of paper.
Add the top and bottom number and place that amount on your favorite almost even money bet (say pass in craps).
If you win, cross off the top and bottom number.
If you lose, write the number wagered and lost on the bottom.
Repeat until all the numbers are crossed off.
Since when you lose you cross off two, and when you win you write one, you only have to win more than 33% of the time.
You are 55 units up when all the numbers are crossed off.

Though this too is doomed, but it should take a lot longer for you to go broke. In the short run, it is also much more likely to make money I think.

Oh, if you want a good book that covers this sort of stuff and is a fun read, pick up Scarnes Complete Guide to Gambling (may not be the exact title, but it's close). It's filled with math, the angles people play, systems, and great anecdotes. His poker advice is pretty simplistic (basicly play tight aggressive, no emphasis on pot odds, implied odds, bluffing or semi bluffing as I recall), but other than that he's fun to read.

[/ QUOTE ]
looks like you typed this wrong somehow, you say cross out top and bottom if you win and then you said cross off two if you lose?

jedi
09-07-2004, 05:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Here's another fun system from days of old, it's called the cancelation system:

Write the number from 1-10 on a piece of paper.
Add the top and bottom number and place that amount on your favorite almost even money bet (say pass in craps).
If you win, cross off the top and bottom number.
If you lose, write the number wagered and lost on the bottom.
Repeat until all the numbers are crossed off.
Since when you lose you cross off two, and when you win you write one, you only have to win more than 33% of the time.
You are 55 units up when all the numbers are crossed off.

Though this too is doomed, but it should take a lot longer for you to go broke. In the short run, it is also much more likely to make money I think.

Oh, if you want a good book that covers this sort of stuff and is a fun read, pick up Scarnes Complete Guide to Gambling (may not be the exact title, but it's close). It's filled with math, the angles people play, systems, and great anecdotes. His poker advice is pretty simplistic (basicly play tight aggressive, no emphasis on pot odds, implied odds, bluffing or semi bluffing as I recall), but other than that he's fun to read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you want to read Gambling Theory and Other Topics by Mason Malmuth.