I discovered a 100% accurate tell

[jimymat]

I was playing Harrah's, North Kansas City, $500 max buy-in no limit hold em tonight when I discovered a way to tell somebodys exact two hole cards.
Hero's utg and limps in with big slick offsuit. The guy in middle position raises to $25. The guy next to him then raises to $50. ( $50 dollar raiser is a tight aggresive, smart player) Folded around to hero who makes it a total of $100 to go. I have about $400 left in front of me now. Original raiser folds, back to $50 dollar raiser who goes all in preflop. I now make the greatest read I've ever made in my life. I ask the guy "what do you got", meaning how much money he just pushed in, he responds "kings". After clarification from the dealer he now realizes I was asking how much money he just pushed, not his whole cards. My dilema is now to call $70 more into a roughly $300 pot. (blinds $7, original raiser $25,my $100 raise, his $170 all in) Pots laying me lil over 4-1, 3 of my outs are gone, leaving me the other 3 aces and maybe some runner runner for straights. I end up calling because I feel pot committed, even though im not getting the odds I need to make a correct call. I guess from a statistic stand point im making a bad call. I took a 100% accurate tell and ended up losing the hand. My thoughts are as follows,

-Was i pot committed to this hand (call $70 to $302 pot)even though I did not have the proper odds or outs?

-Should I have just called the original $50 raise and then fold on the flop when rags hit after he would bet into me?

-Am I considered unethical by not calling since I know Im beat. I fold my underdog hand to a guy who just told me his whole cards.

After the hand the guy told me he thought I said "I call, what do you got" I feel like I took the perfect tell and blew it by not folding, and saving my $70 for later. I am interested in comments, especially from El Diablo.

My afterthoughts are as follows,

-Who is that masked man?
Thanks

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I end up calling because I feel pot committed, even though im not getting the odds I need to make a correct call. I guess from a statistic stand point im making a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't know whether you should call the additional $70, you shouldn't be playing in a game where you have to make $70 decisions.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=61132
pokenum -h as kd - kc ks
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 509318 29.74 1187967 69.38 15019 0.88 0.302
Ks Kc 1187967 69.38 509318 29.74 15019 0.88 0.698

70% of the time, you will lose $70.

30% of the time, you will win $302.

The decision isn't even close.

[Ed Miller]

You called correctly.

[skp]

You don't even have to know the exact numbers as set out in Dynasty's post. There are 48 unseen cards and three unseen Aces. 3 cards to come on the flop. A shortcut percenatge method of hitting the flop is 9 out of 48. Call it 19%. Obviously, you therefore have to call just based on the 19% which can only be higher given that you get to see the turn and river for free.

I suppose another shortcut calculation is to say that you have 3 outs and 5 cards to come. That's 15 outs out of roughly 47 cards. Call it 33% (but that will be slightly overstated as you could hit twice, the other guy could catch the case King etc).

[Scavengerfolk]

Be careful with the 100% accurate part.

You asked the guy what he has and he said something like, "Kings... Oh wait, you mean in my stack..."

In my game that would be a 100% accurate tell that he did NOT have kings.

[LokiV]

Can anyone even call this a tell? He made a mistake. I guess you can hope you have deaf opponents for the 'tell' to dominate........ uh... yeah.

[jimymat]

Interesting comment that I should not be playing in games that require a $70 decision. The web link you sent me was helpful. I made the right call as far as pot odds but being the tight - aggresive/passive player that I am, I was reluctent to call the last $70 when I know Im way behind. Further more I have cut up my players cards to all local casinos and am going to stay away from any gambling activities until I can handle such big money making decisions. I hear theres a poker group that gathers every week at the Horseshoe in a back room to discuss $70 decisions like mine. Do you know if I will need a secret hand shake to get in or could I just drop your name. Thank you in advance.
Ret. jimymat

[Dynasty]

Send a PM to Howard Burroughs. He's an organizer of the group and can give you all the details you need (including that they don't alwasy meet at Binion's).

I think you're overreacting a bit. You shouldn't stop playing. You've simply got to be psychollogically prepared to put significant money into the pot when the situation is right.

About a year and a half ago, I was playing 30-60 draw lowball at the Commcerce. I had never played lowball before but I chose to do it for fun since the game isn't available in Las Vegas. 30-60 was also the highest limit I had played at the time at hold 'em.

Eventually, a hand came up which put me in a situation like yours. There was a full kill on meaing the limits became 60-120. I was dealt 2,3,4,Joker,Jack. That's a very strong draw with the 2,3,4,Joker and a clear raising hand. The Jack is a weak card. Well, somebody limped in and then it was raised to $120. I knew the correct play was to 3-bet. But, I had never made it $180 pre-flop in hold'em before. $180 was probably twice as much as I had ever put into the pot early in the hand.

I did indeed 3-bet and won the hand (which was posted in "Other Poker"). But, the important point was that at the time I wasn't worried about betting "$180" when I was in unfamilar territory. I simply made the best decsion I could and let the hand develop.

[cnfuzzd]

Uhm, yeah. As dynasty pointed out, you are overreacting. Also, you know to play in this game you should really probably have at least 5000, and probably more, in your bankroll. I hope you did. When you do, this decision becomes much easier, since essentially the money is irrelevent to you. That having been said, i am glad to hear from more fellow missourians.

peace

john nickle