Do you dump a set here?

[fimbulwinter]

6 handed, prima 50NL (blinds 25/50c)

UTG ~$25, complete maniac and dumping much money to the table, i like this guy

MP ~140, solid, meek, rocky player, not a lot of PFR, but i know if i get called, i'm probably behind. he's been catching AA every other hand and people haven't figured out not to screw with him

CO ~50, just sat down 2 laps ago, folded every hand until this one not in blinds

Button (fim) ~110

(blind players here are irrelevant)


my hole cards: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Preflop:
UTG raises to 1.50 (this is a small PFR from him, so im kind of on guard here)
MP calls
CO calls
ME calls

Flop:
9/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG insta-pushes for ~23
MP re-pushes all-in in a heartbeat, covering me (this is strange as he didn't seem like the kind of guy to raise to isolate)
CO calls after thinking a long time
ME thinks and thinks and thinks and calls.

this strikes me as one of those "reading hands based on betting situations in ToP. here's how i saw it (again, i feel here i was the victim of "underestimating the power of denial" as i feel i kind of talked myself into a call)
UTG's raise means nothing, MP would call it with a weak T, but he not only called, he pushed. i'm torn between thinking TT/99 or an overpair like QQ/JJ. i'm really hoping for AT, but i doubt he'd make a move like that with such a hand.
The newbie calling is strange too. at this point he could have the flush draw and just think he's getting odds to go on it, if he doesnt believe anyone has a set yet?
I really don't know how i feel about the play, especially with 1.50 invested up to this point. MP was a real rock, i bluffed him off TPMK a few times which is a hard thing to do 6 handed, so he's gotta have something here. also, if he does have the overset, i have one out. if he has an overpair, im in good shape, but the flush draw still has lots of outs (i'm holding one tho) and the S/F draw is in great shape. I almost feel like if I call and am winning, i have a good chance of getting sucked out on, but if i call and am wrong, im dumping 100 bucks like a dolt over $1.50...

what would you do?

[SlyAK]

It's hard to tell without being at the table but the MP over the top push doesnt smell like a set to me. It seems more like an overpair trying to keep you out. Most players would just call with a set hoping for the overcall, and then try to get the money in on the turn.

I would call here every time.

Sly

[jslag]

I'd call. I'm guessing you're against a couple over pairs and one guy has a T or two pair. Maybe even a flush draw, but I doubt MP has TT or 99. Since CO went into the tank for so long, it's unlikely he has TT or 99 either.

I think it's +EV to call here more often than not. Yeah, you might get sucked out on, but unless you're against TT or 99 you do have outs to the full house.

I think you're always ahead of MP here, he's trying to protect his hand and push you and the CO out. Since he has everyone covered, you stand to almost always make $60 here in a side pot when UTG or CO has the best hand.

[GoSox]

I almost never, ever fold a set, but with the little amount you have vested in this about I probably would here. Some will make it sound weak but I bet one has pocket aa/kk/qq, one on a flush draw, and I suspect one hit a higher set.

[knucklehead]

Here's what I think you just asked

I have a good read on this table and I think I read it right, well did I?

The truth is, I can't answer that question!?

If the middle position player is the rock that you say he is, your call was bad. Nobody gets AA every other hand. What a good player gets, is a solid read on the table!

Could mp be on 78c or JQc?

Personally, I'd have to be sitting at that table playing to be able to make the call you made!?? If I called it like you did, I'd be pissing in my pants and banging my head on the table, not because I'm concerned about my read but because 3 different people could out draw you.

[cockandbull]

i think it's a high varience +ev call.

[knucklehead]

So you lose $50 to the CO, and MP cover your bet?

What happened to: MP...people haven't figured out not to screw with him

[AZK]

Call. If he has a higher set so be it, it happens so infrequently that the money you make when he flips over aces or two pair far outweights the money you lose.

[fimbulwinter]

the results of this particular hand are pretty irrelevant, i just wanted your opinions on what you would put each player on, as most of you all have much more table time than i do.

the actual results are not really useful, but sure are funny as hell, so if you want, read the response to this post for a great instance of me getting thouroughly pimped by everyone at the table.

[fimbulwinter]

Results:
Final board

9/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG had A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif to be the big winner of the lucky SOB award, quadrupling up his 25 bucks

Rocky MP had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif just like everyone expected, for the rivered, one-outer overset and the award for weakest played pocket rockets ever. I suspect he was trying to trap UTG if he hit a pair.

CO had 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif for the other overset and the award for thinking the hardest about the easiest decision.

ME had, well, lets not talk about it.

fim

[JohnG]

Concentrating on when to fold KK preflop or a set on the flop is just a waste of time. Always putting your chips in would have little if any impact on your long term results. Concentrate on something that matters.