PPM4 Semis - Bubble play

[steveyz]

PPM4 Sept Semis Day 2:

23 players left. Top 19 get cruise. 20th gets 5.9k, 21st gets 3.5k, and 22nd gets 2.3k. Blinds are 7500/15000. I have 39000. $$$ is nice, but I'm playing for the cruise here so I'm willing to take a chance.

9-handed, folded to me in UTG+1, I had AJo. Raise or fold? The blinds players here were also small stakes (I think SB had 50k and BB had 30k), but everyone else except UTG was 100k+, most 200k+.

[Tosh]

Who's about thats near busting on other tables? I think unless there's a real good chance I move up into the 2.3k by folding I raise everytime. You can't get on the cruise by waiting around and you'll just be forced to put it in with a lot worse soon enough. Others will be cagey too, so you do have a decent chance of taking the blinds down.

[pokerraja]

very hard us to say. are you smallest stack? how many smaller stacks? these situations are what make men. with that being said, i fold. im a puss.

[steveyz]

I'm not the smallest stack. UTG has about 23k left and has to post the big blind next. I'm not quite sure of the other tables but I believe UTG was my best hope for busting before me. There were 2 or 3 stacks that were around the 35k to 50k level so I thought if I folded, I'd have a decent chance (60% maybe, but it's hard to gauge this) of making it into the $, but not a good chance to score a cruise.

[fnord_too]

I'd fold this here. Here's why:
AJo is not that great a hand, you will probably be a 3:2 favorite at best if you get played with, and if you put anything into the pot you are going all the way with this hand.
Since there are so many big stacks behind you, there is an above average chance that you will get played with in at least one place, possibly 2 or three. There are two short stacks already at least partially involved in the hand in the blinds, and another who will have TC500 after his blinds if he does not take a stand.

In later position my answer may be different, but AJo is still not that great and I would be playing uber tight here.

[daryn]

easy, easy fold.

[Tosh]

Interesting, presumably if the cash was lower it would be a raise. IYO what would 22nd need to pay to make it a raise?

[steveyz]

Take into acct that although the $$ is nice, the cruise is worth much more to me personally (Party 15/30 is pretty much a cash cow). Another thing that I considered was that a few players at the other table said they'd rather take the 20th place money (almost 6k) rather than the cruise so there is some chance that dumping will take place.

[PokerNeal]

First time around try win the cruise (which is what I did). Second time around try win the cruise package and Party will give you the package value ($12.5K) instead since you can't win two cruise seats...

[dogmeat]

I was in your spot for a $10K WSOP seat, 12 players and 10 get a seat. I was CO with AJo and holding second lowest stack. I raised all-in, BB called and caught a Q with KQ and I busted out. However, I'd do it again. In your spot, I'd go all-in every time. Results?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif