Should I lay down KK here?

[parappa]

Party 10+1. Blinds 15/30.

BB (450)
UTG (3450)
Hero (1750)
MP (400)
LP (250)
CO (500)
SB (1100)

Hero is dealt KcKs

UTG calls 30. Hero Raises to 125. Everyone folds to UTG. UTG calls.

Flop Ts8s3h.

UTG checks. Hero bets 195. UTG calls.

Turn: Jd

UTG Pushes all-in. Hero ???

[The4thFilm]

If a gun was at my head I wouldn't fold.

[reecelights]

In short...no. It's Party 10/1, and he's the chip leader. You most likely have him beat. Especially if it's Friday.

How you play it depends on what kind of player he is. How did he build his stack? Did he catch two monsters or is he getting lucky with garbage? I'd bet he had garbage.

I've started doing a lot more value betting on Party. You make it easier for them to give you their money, and easier for you to get away. If you're really scared because you picked something up in an earlier hand, check. You probably lose the hand on the river if he plays it right and senses you are scared.

[mscott2374]

I know that this might be weak tight, but I would fold here. You still have plenty of chips and plenty of time. At the end of the day you only have an over pair. Would you laydown AJ in this spot? I tend to find that too often players get married to TPTK or an overpair & I am able to exploit this to maximum effect by making the exact same play that UTG is making here. Sure he could be bluffing, but do you really want to go out of the tourney like this.

Just my opinion

[Phill S]

id call.

your either very ahead, or your slightly behind.

thats a lot of outs for you to hit if he had two pair. and i dont even think he does. if he had a ten, i think hed of raised you, even if it is JT.

[ QUOTE ]
Sure he could be bluffing, but do you really want to go out of the tourney like this

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, if i have to.

Phill

[Michael Davis]

Looks like you and the offender have been mixing it up a lot given your stack sizes. This guy's been in way too many hands already. I call.

-Michael

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like you and the offender have been mixing it up a lot given your stack sizes. This guy's been in way too many hands already. I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats quite a leap of faith to assume big stack = lots of hands played. i think what and how he played them is more important. if hes played AA-QQ four times now and pushed all in on the turn everytime, doesnt that change your assumptions about his play????

Phill

[Michael Davis]

"if hes played AA-QQ four times now and pushed all in on the turn everytime, doesnt that change your assumptions about his play???"

Yes, of course, but it's highly unlikely. The guy has more than quadrupled his stack within 10 hands, which mean he's been in and won at least five of them. Hey, maybe he got a hot streak of good cards, but this seems unlikely. If it's a leap of faith, it's a short hop.

EDIT: Okay, they could be twenty hands in, but it still isn't very likely he's done this on premium holdings.

-Michael

[Phill S]

actually he needs a hell of a lot less hands to quadruple than five hands. and it doesnt take monsters if the deck is hitting him square in the face.

i know, its not likely, and i didnt introduce the concept of him playing AA-QQ so far like that to be realistic, it was to show you that its by actually seeing the hands you can gain this info. when i play someone with a big stack, if i know no different i consider them solid, and dangerous above all else.

was he playing junk to get that large, probably. but you oversimplified why you call to a large degree, based essentially on a huge assumption.

Phill

[parappa]

He was playing junk, had 97 for the straight, but knowing this actually confuses me more because I know that he'll play junk and so can actually put him on this hand. Of course I don't know if he'll make this push with weaker hands, and knowing what he has just confuses me. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Michael Davis]

Good point about needing less than five hands to quadruple up, I forgot that you can actually triple up against these opponents.

My "huge assumption" was also based on the play of this particular hand. And I think it is better to assume a player with this large of a stack this early is bad than assume nothing at all. My own experience tells me that this is the case.

-Michael

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
And I think it is better to assume a player with this large of a stack this early is bad than assume nothing at all. My own experience tells me that this is the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

dont you think its a tad dangerous thinking that the only guy who can knock you out is a bad player. whether hes good bad, or just plays ugly, im giving him credit unless, in cases like this, i dont think i could be way ahead.

dont misunderstand, im not thinking hes anything other a fish with a rabbit foot, but without seeing the 97 hand etc i dont think you can jump to such a conclusion, not enough to risk all your game on (more relevant if you had a lesser hand. the general concensious is the play of this hand is pretty clear cut).

Phill

[Lori]

On first inspection this is an easy call, and I want to say that if you always call in this spot, you won't do yourself any harm.
Even if he's hit his apparent JT, you still have outs, and often people will make this move apparently at random.

However... this one is more interesting, how did the big stack get his stack? Did he play well or badly?
The reason I'm asking is with this chip distribution, I don't think folding is a crime.

I'm not entirely happy with a fold here, but I don't think it's hideous.

Lori

[reecelights]

I was tired when I read this and missed the fact that UTG pushed. I thought he checked to you. Yeah, that's a tougher call. Again, it's hard to tell without knowing how he got the chip lead and what his tendencies are. I would tend to think he did hit JT here and would seriously consider laying down, unless I'd seen him throwing his weight around a lot, or calling on the flop with overcards. If he's a loose cannon, he may only have AT, if he's tight and taking advantage of seeing more flops due to his large stack, I'd lay down.