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adios
09-03-2004, 06:12 PM
Probably not that significant but Bush leads in this Time Magazine poll by double digits now. I saw an interview with Dick Morris on O'Reilly last night and he stated that he thought Bush would have a double digit lead after the convention. He said he advised Clinton to stay in the White House in 1994 after getting a bounce of some sort but Clinton didn't listen and the Democrats lost congress. He said his advice to Bush would be to stay off the stump. Posing a question to O'Reilly, what would Roosevelt have done in 1944? I saw that Bush was out on the stump today.

Poll: Bush Leads by 11 Points During RNC (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=1&u=/ap/20040903/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_poll_3&sid=96378798)

Poll: Bush Leads by 11 Points During RNC

33 minutes ago


WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) leads Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites), 52 percent to 41 percent, while independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) got 3 percent in a national poll taken during the Republican National Convention that ended Thursday.

The Time magazine poll of 926 likely voters was taken Aug. 31-Sept 2, during the convention and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.


Bush had 46 percent, Kerry had 44 percent and Nader 5 percent in a Time poll taken just before the convention.


Veteran pollsters say that polls taken during convention weeks should be viewed with caution because they are conducted at a point when public opinion is focused on only one party and a bounce in the numbers could be short-lived.


However, they also noted that polls taken during conventions can sometimes foreshadow a longer lasting bounce. Much of the poll was taken before President Bush's speech on Thursday night.


Bush leads Kerry in areas like handling terrorism, handling Iraq (news - web sites), and providing strong leadership. Bush and Kerry were about even on handling the economy, an improvement for Bush compared with other recent polls.


Kerry campaign aides questioned the size of the Bush lead and pointed to other national polls taken in recent days that show the race is close.


Bush campaign officials were not immediately available to comment.

andyfox
09-03-2004, 06:15 PM
I would think the margin will increase after Bush's speech. As I've said, Kerry is in real trouble.

Maybe he should hire Dick Morris.

adios
09-03-2004, 06:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he should hire Dick Morris.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Morris has been saying since July that Kerry needs to change the subject. Morris has opined that Kerry will never win on national security as the polls show that Bush has too big of an edge there rightly or wrongly. According to Morris, Kerry should avoid it as much as possible. Morris has stated that Kerry's big issues are the economy and healthcare and that Bush can never catch up on these, Kerry's too strong according to the polls. Thus Morris states that Kerry needs to change the subject to the economy and healthcare.

Kerry was in trouble at one point before he received the nomination and turned things around so he may get it together.

Stu Pidasso
09-03-2004, 07:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Kerry was in trouble at one point before he received the nomination and turned things around so he may get it together.


[/ QUOTE ]

Kerry is in a lot more trouble this time. When he turned it around the first time he was able to do so because he did not have to go back and redefine himself. At the point of turn around, he only needed to present a more appealing, effective, image to people who did not yet know about him(because their state primary elections were held latter).

Now Kerry is in a situation were he has already been defined to the entire electorate. To catch up, he has to redefine himself. The almost unlimited resources of the liberal left 527s can't help him on this task. He has to use the limited campaign funds that he has. Meanwhile the right-conservative 527s can use almost unlimited resources to make that task as difficult for Kerry as possible.

Stu

Ed Miller
09-03-2004, 07:12 PM
Kerry's a significant dog at Pinnacle (http://www9.pinnaclesports.com/guestcontestLines.asp?redirected=yes&ContestType=P olitics) now too.