Mid Pair, Mid Stack, Mid Position

[parappa]

Party 10+1. 8-handed. Blinds 50/100. Table quite tight.

UTG (500)
UTG+1 (800)
MP (1000)
Hero (900)
LP (1350)
CO (650)
Button (1070)
SB (800)
BB (1500)

Folded around to Hero, who has TT.

[etizzle]

push

[ilya]

i agree, push.

[chill888]

Push here and you will spend a lot of time on the sidelines cursing 1010 (binary - do i get credit for naming this hand?). See the flop as cheap as possible - if it's a passive game - just call. Minimum raise works too. As does fold. Yes i said fold. Depends on game and players. limping is a bad/terrible strategy usually in NL but this is one hand that cries out for a limp. Small raises work too but you must be able to get away from this hand if a scary flop arises. Or if someone solid reraises you preflop.

I know a lot of you will disagree, but if you push and are called you hate it and there's no need at this point. This advice will also be impcomprehensible for those of you who inexplicably love hands like 33 44 55 66 etc.

10 10 is a SMALL PAIR in NL hold'em.

If the flop is OK then get aggressive. Defining what is an OK flop is more complex. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

And yes, as the game progresses and less people are left or your stack shrinks you must play 10 10 much more aggressively. But a main goal of early play is avoiding heads up situations - with all your chips in the middle - when you aren't a big favorite,


Just the humble opinion of someone who used to push 10 10 many years ago.

Regards,

[rybones]

I disagree. First, you say this is a tight table, if that is the case, why risk your entire stack when 1/3 of your stack will likely do the trick. If someone calls, it is likely with over cards so you will know if you are beat on the flop and you can shut down. The plus side is that (imo) lots of party players will call your bet with lower pairs they will not be able to let go of when they do not see an A or K on board (even then I have seen them call raises). Additionally, when you don't see over cards, those that called you with over cards will also stay in because they figure their over card is bound to hit. Take as much money from these folks as possible. you may take the bad beat every now and then, but I also think the long term value is in playing as many cards after the flop as possible. Again, this is just me. If someone flops a set or has a higher pair, they will re-raise your raise and you can get out. You have now be 600 and are left 300, but you are still in the game. With the push, the call means you are either in a coin flip or are dead.

as usual, I would love feedback on my analysis from any and all.

Ryan

[reecelights]

I agree 3xBB (1/3 your stack). You probably pick it up. If not, you allow yourself to get away.

[parappa]

I pushed this, but believe that it was a mistake. I was called by AQo in the small blind who hit an ace.

The reason I think it was a mistake was that I basically believe what Chill888 says, and that there's this "in between" area for these medium pairs where a 3xbb raise is too much of your stack (hurts too much to check/fold a flop with an overcard) and it's too early/hand isn't good enough to push.

I think that this is a tough issue, but I'm going to fold these for a while in this situation (desparation low, lots of players in, blinds 10%+ of stacks, medium pair not on the button) and see how I get on.

[Lori]

Just an observation parappa.

[ QUOTE ]
Don’t get cocky, it’s gonna get rock

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember what master onion sage taught you.
A lot of your hands are very marginal, and you are trying to make extra chips from very close situations.
Whilst this is the right thing to do long term, I think you are maybe pushing it a little too much on average.

If in doubt (Not so appropriate to this hand) fold.

Edit: That being said, your hands are often quite interesting to read and so keep posting them because although marginal, they are certainly not all folds.
I just get the feeling that on average you are playing very slightly too loose.

Lori

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Just an observation parappa.

[ QUOTE ]
Don’t get cocky, it’s gonna get rock

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember what master onion sage taught you.
A lot of your hands are very marginal, and you are trying to make extra chips from very close situations.
Whilst this is the right thing to do long term, I think you are maybe pushing it a little too much on average.

If in doubt (Not so appropriate to this hand) fold.

Edit: That being said, your hands are often quite interesting to read and so keep posting them because although marginal, they are certainly not all folds.
I just get the feeling that on average you are playing very slightly too loose.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Lori,

In most of these "do I push?" scenarios, you can make a pretty reasonable chip EV estimate by assuming a range of hands that will call, figuring the likelihood of finding one of those on the BB, etc. You know the drill.

If we were to do that here, would you have any advice on how many chips +EV would mark the threshhold from fold to push (assuming no other options make sense?)?

It's the old "what constitutes a marginal situation" question for the risk of getting your chips all-in.

I have a rough number that I keep in mind here (in terms of % stack increase), and I wondered if you do as well.

eastbay

[Lori]

Oddly this is one hand where I may make a smaller raise, however that's not what you asked sooooo...

I don't have an actual figure in mind, but it's a good question, as there must be one.

Instead of EV, i find myself thinking about risk vs blind probabilities and with a hand like TT assume im pretty much 50-50 if called.

I think to push here, I'd like to be picking up 300 chips to add to my 900 if Im in the region of 20% to go out on the hand (50% to lose if called 40% to be called)

These figures are 'top of the head' and may have flaws, but I like to answer such questions on instinct before properly analysing.

Lori

[PrayingMantis]

Another aspect of this situation that was not discussed, is the fact that there are still 9 players at the 50/100 level here, and nobody is really desperate. It's a rather tight table, certainly for a 10+1, and it's a situation where you really want to start and collect chips yourself, rather than wait for others to make all the mistakes.

This means, in my opinion, that's it's proper to take advantage of smaller edges on this table at this point. Folding TT when first to act in MP looks much too tight to me, in this aspect. I would certainly raise here, maybe to the area of 2.5*BB, try to take the blinds down, or play wisely post-flop if get called. If you are reraised all-in, well - it will be a tough spot, considering pot-odds.

Pushing is also an option, if you're not too sure about your post-flop play, and too worried about a reraise (it depends on how people behind you acted up until that point). I believe that on the long run pushing here is also +EV, with regard to the big picture.

[chill888]

I think EV anaylsis just doesn't work well in many all-in situations. One just must pass up positive EV sometimes early on against crazies to ensure survival.

One of my goals in any S&G is to minimize / avoid any situations where all my chips are at risk. Obviously this is often not possible, but in early play it is often very possible. With a little luck early on, one can win/place/show in a S&G without ever risking survival.

As Lori recently posted, she estimates (my words, hope I'm not misquoting) she can cash 80% of the time if she can double up early on. This is another way of saying she can use skill and stack size to minimize /eliminate situations where her stack is ever at risk.

This is why I personally feel passionately that pushing 99 or 10 10 early-on in a tourney when my stack is OK is a massive mistake. Especially from early position. Especially in a low limit tourney.

As I've said I prefer the Stars structure - OFTEN almost usually I have won only two / one or even zero hands after 40 deals and yet go onto cash. This is my way of avoiding putting chips at risk.

Don't get me wrong I can be crazily aggressive - especially late. But I can also bet at a pot and easily give up cause it's clear I'm beat.

After these posts yesterday I bumped into 1010 (binary) 99 88 77 a few times in early game. I usually limped from early position or put small raises. Several times I was raised and I folded i,,ediatley, a couple of times I won the pot with small raises. Once I flopped trips and TRIPLED UP, a couple of times I came out betting after the flop and won right there. Other times people came out betting and I folded. For me this is what always happens with these types of hands.

Net I NEVER ONCE HAD MY STACK at risk. I often won a little, I often lost a bit, and once I built a massive lead that led ultimately to stress free 2nd - unlucky not to win.

To me this is how to play these hands early in a tourney. Maybe many of you see it as a missed opportunity but for those that push:

Usually you will steal blinds (woopee), when you are called often you will be GONE- especially when you bump into bigger pairs - which happens a lot cause mainly good hands will call. And occasionally you will double up. I prefer my usualy results to these.

Sorry for long post. I spent the day hiking in Alps and the mountain air has made me chatty.

GL

[chill888]

I think EV anaylsis just doesn't work well in many all-in situations. One just must pass up positive EV sometimes early on against crazies to ensure survival.

One of my goals in any S&G is to minimize / avoid any situations where all my chips are at risk. Obviously this is often not possible, but in early play it is often very possible. With a little luck early on, one can win/place/show in a S&G without ever risking survival.

As Lori recently posted, she estimates (my words, hope I'm not misquoting) she can cash 80% of the time if she can double up early on. This is another way of saying she can use skill and stack size to minimize /eliminate situations where her stack is ever at risk.

This is why I personally feel passionately that pushing 99 or 10 10 early-on in a tourney when my stack is OK is a massive mistake. Especially from early position. Especially in a low limit tourney.

As I've said I prefer the Stars structure - OFTEN almost usually I have won only two / one or even zero hands after 40 deals and yet go onto cash. This is my way of avoiding putting chips at risk.

Don't get me wrong I can be crazily aggressive - especially late. But I can also bet at a pot and easily give up cause it's clear I'm beat.

After these posts yesterday I bumped into 1010 (binary) 99 88 77 a few times in early game. I usually limped from early position or put small raises. Several times I was raised and I folded immediatley, a couple of times I won the pot with small raises. Once I flopped trips and TRIPLED UP, a couple of times I came out betting after the flop and won right there. Other times people came out betting and I folded. For me this is what always happens with these types of hands.

Net I NEVER ONCE HAD MY STACK at risk. I often won a little, I often lost a bit, and once I built a massive lead that led ultimately to stress free 2nd - unlucky not to win.

To me this is how to play these hands early in a tourney. Maybe many of you see it as a missed opportunity but for those that push:

Usually you will steal blinds (woopee), when you are called often you will be GONE- especially when you bump into bigger pairs - which happens a lot cause mainly good hands will call. And occasionally you will double up. I prefer my usualy results to these.

Sorry for long post. I spent the day hiking in Alps and the mountain air has made me chatty.

GL

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I think EV anaylsis just doesn't work well in many all-in situations.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that it "doesn't work" so much as it isn't the whole picture. But it's a pretty dang important part of the whole picture.

You're saying you think the risk is too much for the reward here. I think this is maybe close enough that it depends. It depends on the value of creating an aggressive image, for example, which can have significant value on later hands.

It also depends on how big an edge you think you can get later on - and that's a function of the quality of play you're seeing at the table.

Generally, here, though, I think I move it in.

eastbay

[PrayingMantis]

I'm sure you are aware of this, but Stars' SNGs are VERY different, in many aspects, from Party's SNG, especially when dealing with Party's lower-buy-in's (i.e, initial stack of 800).

You simply cannot go too far with an approach of "avoid any situations where all my chips are at risk", like you suggest. This is a much more appropriate approach for Star's SNGs, where you usually have A LOT more room to manouver. And can prefer, many times and much more often, survival, over pushing small edges.

There are too many times, while playing a Party SNG, where your stack will simply vanish if you are too afraid to put it in the middle, and many times you'll have to do it with MUCH worse hands than TT. This could very well be the best hand you'll see in this game.

I'm not saying that pushing is necessarily the best option, but it is certainly not very far from it. Pushing or not, you must play this hand, and play it aggressively, in this spot. That's my opinion.