First 10 days ... the Lee Jones way

[evain]

I have just finished my first 10 days playing at Pokerroom on the .25/.50 and .50/1 tables and wondered how I am doing.

I have been four-tabling and have played 6900 hands for a BB profit of 372 (5.8/100), trying desperately to stick to Lee Jones' methods for a solid base to my play.

I am new to poker but love the game and have enjoyed reading all your thoughts and hands over the past few weeks. I appreciate any input from you guys.

Cheers

[flair1239]

You are doing very well. Just be prepared for someone to say "too small sample size".

Two things to watch for; don't be discouraged if you hit a bigdown swing. Also sometimes it can be hard to learn new concepts while multi-tabling; but if you can that is great.

[evain]

Thanks for taking the time to respond. I appreciate it. Yes I know 7000 hands is a small sample and I just wondered if I was in the ball-park for what you might expect. My BB/100 has flattened right out to between 5.5 and 6 over the last 4000 hands and I hope it stays there.

Thanks again.

[flair1239]

I actually do not think it is too small of a sample size. It might be too small to say that "I am a lifelong 5.5BB/100 winner at this level." But I think it is large enough to say that "I am a better than breakeven player at this level."

Like I said you are doing great.

[Sample Size Man]

I deem your sample size:

INSUFFICIENT

[cold_cash]

I can already tell this is going to be good....

(It would be better if you simply replied: "TOO SMALL, NO GOOD!", and said nothing else.)

[evain]

Oh ye revered sample size man at what point should I return with figures for your perusal?

Seriously, at what point should I be able to rely on my figures?

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I deem your sample size:

INSUFFICIENT

[/ QUOTE ]

Situation:

You and 3 friends are stranded on an island with no food (but a sufficient supply of fresh water). The only vegetation on the island is a strange looking berry bush, with berries on it.

Let's assume you know you will not be rescued before you will starve to death. And that you are against cannibalism.

One day driven by hunger one of your friends eats one of the berries and immediately dies, your remaining friend says well that does not mean anything and he eats a berry and immediately dies. Do you decide the berries are poisonous, or is your sample size too small?

Point being, his sample size is too small to say that he will be a winner of 5BB/100. However it is large enough too say with reasonable certainty, that he is probably at least a breakeven player at his present level.

[Sample Size Man]

I deem your analogy:

POORLY CONSTRUCTED

[jmark]

[ QUOTE ]

Oh ye revered sample size man at what point should I return with figures for your perusal?

Seriously, at what point should I be able to rely on my figures?

[/ QUOTE ]

25000 hands. 24999 is too few.

PS I just made that up. It looks like you're doing well. Lee Jones' strategies work well for when you're just starting out.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I deem your analogy:

POORLY CONSTRUCTED


[/ QUOTE ]

I find this guy pretty funny, I must admit.

[jmark]

[ QUOTE ]
I find this guy pretty funny, I must admit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your sample size is too small to say anything about him just yet.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I find this guy pretty funny, I must admit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your sample size is too small to say anything about him just yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Between this guy, and the new "Please Use The Search Function" guy in the Zoo, this forum has seen some good improvements in the course of one afternoon.

[rybones]

what is this lee jones way can someone guide me to the thread with a link? or bump it.

thanks

ryan

[jmark]

Search on amazon for his book.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
One day driven by hunger one of your friends eats one of the berries and immediately dies, your remaining friend says well that does not mean anything and he eats a berry and immediately dies. Do you decide the berries are poisonous, or is your sample size too small?

[/ QUOTE ]

I decide, screw the berries, I'm eating my dead friends after marinating them in saly sea water. Canabalism rocks!

[Ed Miller]

Sounds like you are off to a good start, evain.

Realize that your winrate so far is much better than most very good players can expect to do long-term. That is, you are running good. /images/graemlins/smile.gif So don't be surprised when a losing streak hits and your winrate drops... that is natural and no reason to be alarmed.

Poker is a tough game, and you will not even close to have it mastered after ten days of play. But it sounds like you are off to a fine and enjoyable start. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[rjc199]

I'll have to use this reply next time somebody ask me a question that I want to dodge.

"Did you take out the trash? Well, it doesn't matter whether I did or not, the sample size is too small."

[ QUOTE ]
I deem your analogy:

POORLY CONSTRUCTED

[/ QUOTE ]


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[evain]

Thanks Ed. It has been a problem for me to work out what is a reasonable return on time because you see so many outrageous figures thrown about. At least I know I am in the ballpark and can expect a little cool down before things flatten out.

Thanks again.

[sfer]

Looks like a great start. If you're following Jones to the letter you're probably doing a good job of staying out of trouble.

You do have a pretty small sample size, so it's best to start posting some hands that you have played either badly or well. You'll be surprised at how some hands you think you played well you might not have and vice versa. The important thing is learning why.

[evain]

Thanks Sfer

I appreciate you taking the time to reply. Yes I think a strength of play is to stay out of trouble and knowing when to see the flop (or perhaps more importantly) to know when to fold are priceless skills.

I will build my database some more and keep at it.

See you round.