How many outs do I really have here?

[Marquis]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button calls, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button folds, UTG calls, Hero folds.

[flair1239]

I don't think it is a question of outs. I think the question is something like this... (others correct me if I am wrong please.)"Is the pot offering me a big enough overlay, that will make staying in the pot profitable in the long run." (For instance if you were in this situation a million times, how many times would someone have an A or K.)

If the pot were $100 it would be an easy stay. That said, I think this is a judgement call here.

[Gambit]

I don't know for certain if you can count on having any outs. MP2 could have a pocket pair of QQ, KK or AA (maybe AK with a club), and UTG (calling all the way) could have AcX or KcX. Best card for you would be what? A red King? A club? Either could get you in trouble. I dunno, for calculation purposes I wouldn't treat it as more than 2 to 5 outs...sorry I cannot be more speciffic, tough call.

[Marquis]

"Is the pot offering me a big enough overlay, that will make staying in the pot profitable in the long run."

But isn't the best way to do this to try to best estimate the number of outs the situation offers?

How many outs are the 9 flush cards worth? With the third best /images/graemlins/club.gif in my hand and 3 opponents, is the flush worth, perhaps, 3 outs?

How many outs are the overs worth here? Maybe 2?

If I did have 5 outs, I pretty clearly should have called.

[flair1239]

I see, I misinterpreted the question. You are asking how much to devalue the outs that you do have? In that case, I don't know.

[John White]

I think most of your outs in this situation are greatly devalued. The aggressive bettor could already have a flush, in which case, a K won't help, except the Kc, which gives you the second nut flush. He could have two pair in which case only the flush draw is any good. But the other player could be on a higher flush draw or the two pair in each of those situations. Single card third nut flush is shakey. King is shakey. Queen is shakey. SSHE says that each over is 1.5 outs in a non-coordinated board. But that's not what you have. T9c would take away a Q as an out. Very tough to say. I think you can call here as you're reducing all your club outs, overcard outs, etc to a number of virtual outs... 4 outs is profitable and 3 isn't. But what the hell do I know?