JJ on the Button get put to a nasty decision.

[Kirkrrr]

Either $10 or $20 buy-in 18-person SnG. The table is pretty aggressive, a lot of raising pre-flop and relatively few multi-way pots, as I remember it right now. There's still approximately 12 people left, so we've just begun.

BB is obviously the chip leader and plays a pretty conservative game. SB talks trash about everyone who's playing trying to "teach" them but is obviously a total idiot. I have shown down some pretty good hands and I think have a pretty solid image for once.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP (t4780)
CO (t3748)
Hero (t3827)
<font color="C00000">SB (t1733)</font>
<font color="C00000">BB (t9375)</font>
UTG (t3537)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t1733(All-In)</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises to t9375(All-In)</font>

...

My read is that SB can have absolutely anything, and I got him here 90% of the time, easy. The BB, however, is a different story and made this decision a tough one for me.

Thoughts?

Thanks in advance,
Kirk R.

[Richard Tanner]

There are a ton of better places to get your money in than having J-J against two callers, even if all they have is A-K and Q-10 (and it's likely they have better) then your Jacks have many ways to turn bad.
I would sit back and let the BB and SB show their hands down for information but also on the chance that SB will get knockec out.

Cody

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Easy fold. Odds are better than 50/50 for you to be knocked out if you call. Hopefully the SB gets knocked out and you are one step closer to the cash.

[adanthar]

With the sole exception of a horribly overaggressive 99 or TT, the least they could have here is 2 overcards- but they probably have 3 or have you drawing very thin. Fold and it's not close.

FWIW, it'd be closer with QQ and I'd probably call it, but I have a feeling that some people here would fold, too.

[Kirkrrr]

Ordinarily, it would be an easy fold, I agree. However, given the action I put the SB on A-high at best, possibly not even. And the all-in re-raise by the BB was an isolating move that's done with a medium-small pocket pair about 80% of the time.

Therefore, if I'm right I'd be a huge favorite as the most likely scenario is that I'm up against two overcards (50/50) and an underpair (80/20), but getting 2:1 on my call.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=482876
pokenum -h jh jd - ad ks - th tc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jd Jh 619614 45.20 746923 54.49 4217 0.31 0.453
Ks Ad 496917 36.25 869620 63.44 4217 0.31 0.364
Tc Th 250006 18.24 1116531 81.45 4217 0.31 0.183


I folded, figuring that there will be, indeed, better places to get my money in, but I'm not sure the fold is as simple as at first seems.

Kirk R.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
Ordinarily, it would be an easy fold, I agree. However, given the action I put the SB on A-high at best, possibly not even. And the all-in re-raise by the BB was an isolating move that's done with a medium-small pocket pair about 80% of the time.

Therefore, if I'm right I'd be a huge favorite as the most likely scenario is that I'm up against two overcards (50/50) and an underpair (80/20), but getting 2:1 on my call.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=482876
pokenum -h jh jd - ad ks - th tc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jd Jh 619614 45.20 746923 54.49 4217 0.31 0.453
Ks Ad 496917 36.25 869620 63.44 4217 0.31 0.364
Tc Th 250006 18.24 1116531 81.45 4217 0.31 0.183


[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming that you are correct about the two hands, over half the time you will be eliminated out of the money or crippled (losing to the smaller stack). If this was a multi-table, the benefit of tripling up (or nearly tripling) may make this play +EV. In an S&amp;G where the top prize is not that much larger than the others, folding is best.

[Lori]

Run away, wait for better spot.

JJ isn't great, it's even less great against two players.

You have a nice stack here, no need to gamble. For me this isn't even close.

Lori

[Lori]

Assuming that you are correct about the two hands, over half the time you will be eliminated out of the money or crippled (losing to the smaller stack). If this was a multi-table, the benefit of tripling up (or nearly tripling) may make this play +EV. In an S&amp;G where the top prize is not that much larger than the others, folding is best

Perfect reply.

Lori

[Sam T.]

The short-stack could have any number of hands, so I would probably call if it was just him. As you said the big stack is the big problem. Look at it from his point of view. You are in the BB, and there is a PF raise, followed by an all-in. With what hands are you going to push? How many of them are NOT favorites (or at least a coin-flip) against JJ?

You are against two opponents and have a good-sized stack, so I think you gotta fold. Best case, you're a coin-flip. Worst case, you're an underpair and left praying for a two-outer.