When will the other shoe drop ???

[adamstewart]

I'll apologize in advance starting so many threads on related subjects lately ... but right now I'm filled with excitement and questions about what lies ahead for me ...

Lately I've felt like, although there is still a world of things I've yet to learn, my game has really "come together."

As stated before, I've been on a winning streak as of late. Since getting my tracker, I have 11,826 hands at $2/$4 with a win rate of 4.91 BB/100, and an additional 3,845 hands at $1/$2 with a win rate of 4.03. I've gone through some ups (AND DOWNS) throughout, but generally upwards.

Now, the sample size is rather small, but on another thread it was stated that with 10,000 hands, a win rate can be calculated with a standard deviation of 1 BB/100. If that is true, then there's a 95% chance my win rate falls between 3-7 BB/100 at $2/$4. (I am completely aware that anything even near or over 5 BB/100 is unsustainable).

I guess what I'm wondering is:

Is this some astromonical streak I've been on, and the other shoe will soon drop? Or, is it likely that I am a truly 'crushing' these games and should soon think about moving up levels?

If the latter is the case, I once again pose my question from another thread: How much should I expect a decrease in win rate moving to say, $3/$6? (taking into consideration the UNIQUE circumstances that surround the $2/$4 level: namely that there are no 6 max tables at that level, and there are SO MANY fish at that level).

Thanks!
Adam
P.S. Please don't kill this thread by saying, "Use the search function." I feel I am asking something rather specific here.

[judgesmails]

The other shoe will drop on Tuesday at 6 pm EST.

Seriously though, keep doing what you are doing. If and when your results suffer, post some troublesome hands or situations and others here seen to be very helpfull. Don't get too overconfident and move up levels too far too fast. Play within your means. I have enough of a bankroll for $60-120 but play at $3-6 right now because I am still learning and feeling out the downside of things at a level where it does not bother me.

I wish you continued success.

[cnfuzzd]

why arent you all dead yet?


wait, its not saturday. nevermind. Forget i said anything.

peace

john nickle

[xrongor]

there are books you can buy on the subject of the winners attitude. people, when winning, tend to believe its luck and not what they are doing. winners dont think like that. you need to be careful that you are honest with yourself, but dont dismiss winning as an accident.

randy

[bicyclekick]

I had the same thing going back at 3/6 until I had a -10k hands streak in which my bb/100 dropped to like .76. Of course I got it up again, but not anywhere near the 4.

It's not realistic. You're probably a winning player, though.

[Equal]

First of all, great post.

Second of all - I'll save some time and post the standard 2+2 response, "Your sample size is too small. Come back when you have a large enough sample size. Say 500,000 hands. Do you see why?"

Third of all, I think you are ready to move up. 5BB/100 is a sustainable win rate at those levels when playing 1 or 2 tables. When was playing at 2/4 and 3/6 I didn't find much difference between the two except that table selection was harder. It took a little more table hopping to find a bad table.

If you are beating 2/4 for 4.9bb/100 I wouldn't expect your win rate to be less than 3/100 at 3/6.

[TwoNiner]

It doesn't matter how close it will hold up to those numbers. If those are your stats, I can pretty much assure you that you're a winning player. Get up to the next level at 3-6. There really isn't much difference. You can take longer there figuring out when to try to move up 5-10 etc.. but for now your heading in the right direction, playing well with a bankroll to move up. Challenge yourself and you'll play even sharper.

Good Luck

[Webster]

1. I can't STAND it when people say use the serch - that is SO stupid. New people, new opinions.

2. Hey - I go through streaks where I feel I should be teaching, then I go through streaks where where I think the last 45,000 hands were all luck.

Just go with the flow. as TwoNiner said " If those are your stats, I can pretty much assure you that you're a winning player"

Probebly not THAT much but a winner. The true test will come when you have a few weeks of bad beats.

Just keep playing.

[adamstewart]

My extraordinary ( <-- self-proclaimed) winning streak has come to an end...

Apparently, the other shoe dropped on Sepember 3, 2004 (from 10:30 am all the way up until 8:00 pm).

After making $1500 at $2/$4 from Sunday through Thursday (including a $600 day yesterday!), I went on to lose $457 today. Arghh. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I've made a personal oath to myself that I will never post a "bad beat" on this site - AND THAT'S NOT GOING TO CHANGE. Suffice to say, we've all been in the cold, dark place I was today ...

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. Here's to a better tomorrow! /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Adam

[adamstewart]

P.S. only 6 more... no, make that 5 ... more posts until I become ...

drumroll ..........................


... a "MEMBER" here!!!

[TheBong]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. only 6 more... no, make that 5 ... more posts until I become ...

drumroll ..........................


... a "MEMBER" here!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

So let's make sure to post-boost to get there!

[MicroBob]

I was going to say to make sure you stay grounded but it appears you are now doing that some...with the help of your little losing slide.

I am ALWAYS having to find ways to make sure my head is in check.


When I first got P-Tracker, I had 30k hands or so where I was winning around 3BB/100 and I was THE MAN.
I then proceeded to drop 400 BB's in there due to horrific bad-beats and probably cocky-tilt (or is that cock-tilt??) and my win-rate sank to below 1BB/100.


I'm most of the reason I slid off like that....but variance had something to with it too.



The last 5 weeks I have been on an awesome run.
I know I've been playing better (thanks SSHE) but it's also pretty easy to say that when you're catching the right cards most of the time.


That said, 3/6 isn't that much of a leap from 2/4....monetarily or in skill. It's a little bit more aggressive with a bit more check-raising and slightly fewer complete imbeciles. But otherwise, it's very much the same.
(also - there are no 6-max tables at 3/6 either).
I suggest testing the waters there on occasion if you feel you're up for it.


There is no need to proclaim yourself STRICTLY a 2/4 player or a 3/6 player. I still play a mix of both...frequently at the same time (2 tables of 2/4 and 2 tables of 3/6).
I still play 1/2 on some sites for crying out loud for bonus-clearing purposes.

So take an occasional shot at 3/6 when you feel good about it or find a table to your liking. And, if you want, you can still keep a majority of your play at 2/4 for now.

[lacky]

I feel your pain. I made $12500 last month and am already down $4500+ in 3 days this month. I cant do anything right. Feel like an idiot. When I feel like screaming when the biggest doner at the table sucks out on me it's probably time for a vacation. It's time for a vacation. I need elk season to get here real quick.

Steve

[Blarg]

Well, you had a pretty nice last month, Steve. Good luck turning your short bad period around.

I too a vacation most of this month because I haven't been feeling so hot myself, mostly physically but a little poker-wise too. Probably did me some real good.

I was playing today and watched the biggest blizzard of suck-outs I may have ever seen. I mean this guy was sucking out the whole table. People were loudly complaining about it, and some left just to be replaced by someone else who got the same treatment. He not only played every hand, he seemed to make most of them, and a ton of them on the last card. He last carded me many times, and more than half a dozen times in a row, but a great consolation was that he did the same to everyone else. Also, that it was only at $1/2 6-max, and I still came out ahead anyway. I have to admit I was actually laughing, because this guy was cold-calling raises with cards like 95 offsuit and winning time and again anyway on the last card, driving the whole table nuts. It got to be great suspense and fun seeing who he was going to suck out next and what absurd cards he would flip over to do it. I'm sure if I were playing at a higher limit it wouldn't have been so funny.

Anyway, hope things turn around for you quick. I'm having lots of laughs at 1/2 6-max for a bit, and finding it fun to learn something new. That's my therapy and amusement for a while.