Cowboys -- Seeing Monsters or a Proper Fold?

[MisterKing]

Four players at a 5-max 1/2 table on Paradise. Other players are not particularly tricky, but not as passive or fold-prone as many I see at this level. I think I played this the only way I could, particularly given my position (e.g. no chance for a check-raise on the flop). You agree?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Even if I'm behind, I have some huge draws at this point -- any heart, any queen, and probably any king puts me back in the lead.

River: (6.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

If he calls my raise PF, calls me down on the flop and turn, he has to give me credit for a made hand of some kind. That in mind, he suddenly changes course and bets out on 5th street. I smelled a slowplayed ace, rivered straight, or a set &amp; mucked accordingly.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

[tripdad]

i probably pay off for some info fully expecting to lose, but gaining it back with relentless value bets later(if you plan on staying awhile).

looks like the rivered gutshot to me, or maybe T-2/3-2.

cheers!

[fnord_too]

I call this. He could easily be on a missed draw. You only have to be right 1 time in 7 to make this call correct, so unless you are 85% or more sure he has you beat, call.

[Guy McSucker]

Most often he has a good hand and is afraid you won't bet the river for him.

Nevertheless I think you have a call here. Sometimes he'll be bluffing, and sometimes he'll be a more sophisticated player who is willing to call one bet and not call a raise, so he's betting for value with e.g. a smaller pocket pair or a T or J.

Call, expect to lose, win it sometimes, and the rest of the time gain some information on your foe.

Guy.

[TJD]

So do you think he has 22 or A2 or J2 or T2 or 32 or 54?

Nothing else that they think beats you would wait till the river would it? Wouldn't they CR you on the turn?

So, either he has one of the hands above OR he is bluffing OR he has a hand that will call a bet anyway and is doing the "right" thing by betting into you.

We don't know do we? Call! We are getting 7.25:1 on it being one we can beat. I think those odds are good enough and win or lose..... we make a note on him and are a little wiser next time we play.

trevor

[MisterKing]

thanks, folks.

My play in this spot is very player-dependent. I'll call more than half the time if I think the price is even close to right. That said, in this case my read was that 7.25:1 was a terrible price on a call. The speed with which he bet the river, the way he had played before, and the cards on the board all dictated that he was probably in the range of 95% to have me beat.

Nonetheless... if I knew he'd be sticking around for a while, I'd definitely pay off to get information. The combined value of knowing what he was holding, plus the % chance I had him beat, would make a call +EV in that spot, I think.

Anyhow, thanks again for the input. Would you throw out a call if the board paired on 5th street?

[Gazza]

I would call no matter what hit on 5th street (apart from when we can raise that is)

Gazza

[chio]

i call 100% of the time on this river heads up

"That said, in this case my read was that 7.25:1 was a terrible price on a call"

it's a great price, i can think of a million hands he has, a missed broadway draw (they love calling with a single card gutshot to broadway), missed heart draw, a ten or jack that's "calling a bet anyway", or just something like 66 or nothing since opponent's don't think rationally