53o BB 5 way action and 1 bet to close the action.

[Gordon Scott]

I’ve started looking at these hands a little differently and I would appreciate some direction.

UTG open raises for first time I recall in 20 hands or so I’ve been at the table.

I call one bet to close 5 way action (pretty typical for this table preflop) in the BB.
Good or Bad?

Flop J24 rainbow. I check UTG bets, all call. I’m stuck in this spot because I feel 90% sure if the ace comes I’m getting a big payoff but on the other hand I get the feeling that my ACE outs are reduced by the number of limpers and the UTG.
Did I miss a bet?

Turn rags off with a fourth suit, 8 I think. So, no flush draw, no Broadway cards. My outs are thin 5 maybe 6 if my read is good. UTG bets all call.

The river is irrelevant because this is not intended to be a “look what a great job I did spanking big cards with junk” post. I’m normally pretty tight in the blinds but when the UTG raises and I’m the preflop cutoff I’m loosening up with some junk. Not big-card little-card, almost always dominated AKQx junk but 1 & 2 gappers and some suited rags occasionally.

I’m not suggesting that any two will due in this situation but it seems to come up enough to make it worth asking the question.

Is there a certain group of junk hands that show a profit in the spot?

Thanks
Best of Luck

[illunious]

I fold preflop, I'm too tight especially in these situations, so I could be wrong.

I would bet the flop. You also have a good opportunity to checkraise the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I’m getting a big payoff but on the other hand I get the feeling that my ACE outs are reduced by the number of limpers and the UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way to calculate this, all you know is that there's 4 aces and 4 sixes somewhere in the 47 cards that you haven't seen.

[Brian]

Hi Gordon,

Fold pre-Flop, and it's not close. If you're calling 53o here, I have a feeling you are probably calling way too many other hands as well here. You should also be folding hands like ATo, KJo, 87o, etc. here.

You should check-raise the Flop for value. You have an open-ended straight draw, as either an Ace or a 6 will give you a straight.

The rest is fine. I'd probably bet the River if I hit the Ace, as UTG may get scared and check it through if he has a smaller pocket pair, or if he has AK he may get greedy and raise you. If I hit a 6, I'll check-raise.

-Brian

[EDIT]: And Illunious is correct, your reasoning about how many outs you have is extremely flawed.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

calling with junk hands is okay closing the action with relative position on the pf raiser and likely closing the action on all streets.

but i will not call with dominated big cards in fear of domination of course. 53o may be a bit low, but 87o is a pretty standard call, even 86o would be with an extra caller.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop J24 rainbow. I check UTG bets, all call. I’m stuck in this spot because I feel 90% sure if the ace comes I’m getting a big payoff but on the other hand I get the feeling that my ACE outs are reduced by the number of limpers and the UTG.
Did I miss a bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

You missed multiple bets. You should have checkraised this flop for value. That's why you're playing 53o in the first place, to get paid off when you hit favorable flops with your great position to the pf raiser.

[ QUOTE ]
My outs are thin 5 maybe 6 if my read is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you learn to count outs? You have an OESD on a completely rainbow board. That's 8 outs (4 aces, 4 sixes).

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Where did you learn to count outs? You have an OESD on a completely rainbow board. That's 8 outs (4 aces, 4 sixes).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's speculating that with all of the PF cold-callers a couple of the A's are out there already. Not logic I use, but I can see where he's coming from.

[Gordon Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
You missed multiple bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this. I know better than to post this question. With broadway cards or 8T or something I would be jamming the flop in a similar spot.

Not the point but I did manage to get 4 1/2 way action capped via a check raise on the river when the ace came.
[ QUOTE ]
Where did you learn to count outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand I have 8 outs more if you count the 5s and 3s and really think 3 players cold called 2 with nothing.

As Brian said I'm flawed on this. You make three in a row and I'm sure the list will grow if others reply. It just seems logical to me that with 3 players cold calling 2 bets preflop the likelihood that at least one of the aces is out would be increased.

[Gordon Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
And Illunious is correct, your reasoning about how many outs you have is extremely flawed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand I have 8 outs more if you count the 5s and 3s and really think 3 players cold called 2 with nothing.

Most think my thinking is flawed on this and I'm sure the list will grow if others reply. It just seems logical to me that with 3 players cold calling 2 bets preflop the likelihood that at least one of the aces is out would be increased.


Thanks

[Entity]

Your 5s and 3s are not outs. Aces and 6s are, though, and there are 8 of them out there.

BTW, this is about a 99.9% fold. 53s is better, but you're definitely gambling with cards like these. I'm pretty sure 53o is -EV in this situation.

Rob

[Gordon Scott]

I agree they are out there somewhere.

Thanks

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Most think my thinking is flawed on this and I'm sure the list will grow if others reply. It just seems logical to me that with 3 players cold calling 2 bets preflop the likelihood that at least one of the aces is out would be increased.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see where you're coming from with this, and it's probably a fine line. If we discount certain outs as "dirty" based on a possible holding of an opponent, it probably makes a little sense to discount an ace as an out with 3 cold-callers after an UTG raiser.

How much you discount those outs is debateable. If an A falls you may actually have better implied odds in this hand, as you may get more action on latter streets.

I don't think it's a black/white, right/wrong issue. If people think it is, I would like to see a concrete explanation of why.

[Gordon Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
How much you discount those outs is debateable. If an A falls you may actually have better implied odds in this hand, as you may get more action on latter streets.


[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo - Why push out an Ace X hand with a check raise or betting out on the flop when UTG has shown he has a big hand. My 3s and 5s are no good if we run this hand with T8 or paint cards thats a horse of a differant color. I gotta have and Ace or a 6 to win the showdown. It's kinda like slow plaing a big draw. I don't know, I'm just a rookie but I think I'm moving in the right direction mixing it up with this bunch of sharks every couple of days.

If the Ace had come on the turn rather than the river it would have really been big. Based on the river action I'm almost positive UTG had AK or AA and UTG+1 had to have Aces up.

Thanks

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Bingo - Why push out an Ace X hand with a check raise or betting out on the flop when UTG has shown he has a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm semi-defending your thought on the A outs, but not your play in the hand. I'd fold this PF. I will call from the BB when closing the action, but like CDC said, I'd like it to be suited or a little higher than 53o.

And I think a c/r is for value, not to force anyone out. The pot is getting big, and c/ring the flop only ties in people who want to chase with overcards, Axs, etc.

[helpmeout]

1. 53o is junk I wouldnt even play it from the SB after 8 callers let alone call a raise in the BB.

2. Gotta checkraise, you have a good hand and UTG will most likely bet, you will be able to trap a lot of players here.

When you play with rags you have to hit 2 pair or a good draw. With a one gapper you will hit an openended straight draw about 7% of the time and 2 pair about 2% of the time. Putting you in a decent position 1 in 11 times or there abouts. However if your cards are suited then you will get a flush draw about 12% of the time putting you at about 1/4-1/5 for a good flop with 53s.

Higher no gappers are usually ok as well as any 2 suited cards because at a discount you are getting good odds. Just dont get excited with crappy low cards because you wont hit the flop very often.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

53o is junk I wouldnt even play it from the SB after 8 callers let alone call a raise in the BB.

folding anything for 19:1 is a horrible mistake

[Gordon Scott]

Okay I asked for direction and now I need to follow it. Even if I can't grasp it yet.

Thanks

[Chris Daddy Cool]

a lot of you are saying this is such an auto-fold. I'd probably fold this here too, but the call isn't as bad as you guys think. you're getting 11:1 closing the action with the best position (the direct right of the pf raiser) which means you're closing hte action pf, and likely on the flop and beyond as well.

however, if you're going to play these hands passively when you hit a good flop, then obviously 53o isn't going to be profitable if you dont exploit your edges postflop, so hero in this particular case should fold, not neccessarily because the pf call is bad, but because he doesn't play well enough postflop to make up for it.

if calling here with 53o is a mistake, i don't think it's a very big one.

bigger cards, like 98o, 86o should be auto-calls in these spots IMO.

[Brian]

Hi Gordon,

I understand what you are saying about how many Aces are actually left in the deck. But you have no way of actually knowing what the ratio of cards that will help you to cards that won't help you is. All you know is that there are 47 unknown cards in the deck, and 8 of them will help you, therefore giving you a ratio of 39:8 of cards that help:cards that don't.

So let's pretend that you can "guess" what your opponents hands are on the Flop. Let's assume that one of them does in fact have AK, and that even another one of your straight outs is taken up by someone who has 76o. Furthermore, let's assume that of your other 4 opponents, none of them has any of your straight outs, meaning let's say they have T9, 88, KQ, and QJ).

So, have your drastically lost pot equity because 2 of your outs are in your opponents' hands? No! You can now account for 10 other cards in the deck that are not your own, meaning only 35 cards in the deck are unknown (52 to start, -3 from Flop, -2 from your own 53o, -2 from AK, -2 from 76, -2 from T9, -2 from 88, -2 from KQ, and -2 from QJ = 35). And of those cards left, the ratio of cards that don't help you to cards that do is now 29:6, which is only a little worse than 39:8.

So, even though some of your Ace outs may be out there, there will also frequently be hands out there that contain none of your outs, thus giving you 2 less unknown cards that won't help! Sometimes, your odds may be even better than the 39:8 that we assumed! However, speculating about this is completley useless, because you never really have enough information to determine how many of your outs are missing versus how many cards that don't help you are in your opponents' hands. Therefore, you use only the information that you have for certain, that is, the 3 cards on the Flop and the 2 in your hand, to determine the % of the time that you'll complete your hand.

Hope that helps,

-Brian

[Brian]

Hi Chris,

I think that you are incorrect concerning the weak offsuit connecting hands like 76o etc. I think that these hands can get all but the best of players in trouble post-Flop as they (and I) will have problems defending their hand when they Flop a top pair of 7's. While it may not be an error in theory or with simulations or whatever to call a raise from the BB with 76o getting 11:1, these hands tend to snowball into what could prove to be costly post-Flop errors. I think that advising anyone who is still learning the game (or more cautious long-term players such as myself) to fold would hardly be costing them anything at worst, and may actually save them a lot of money.

As you said yourself, if these hands aren't played for their maximum value post-Flop, they just aren't going to be worth playing. If I advised you to fold this hand pre-Flop, and you retorted saying that getting 11:1 and etc. you think it's a call, then I'd be fine with that as you clearly know what you are doing. But I wouldn't advocate this call for anyone who wasn't 100% sure they knew what they were doing, and even I don't think I am 100% sure enough to be able to play this. Maybe I am wrong about the amount of EV the hand has with the odds you are getting to call, but I am pretty certain at best it is very marginal and at worst it costs a lot. As Mason stresses in a lot of his essays, if you think the hand has the potential to be slightly EV but you aren't really sure, it is best to fold it because chances are it could be deadly.

-Brian

[Gordon Scott]

I think I made a good read but I see your point.

Thanks

[Brian]

Hi Gordon,

I think you're missing what I'm saying. The point is, even if you make a "good read", and 2 of your Ace outs aren't there, you may (and probably will) still have the same pot equity. Do you see why?

-Brian

[Gordon Scott]

I'm begining to. I played a hand I should have mucked was where my mistake (and most mistakes) started. Yes I played it bad because I didn't raise or check raise the flop for value.

Thanks

[illunious]

Good explanation Brian.

Gordon, I hope you understand why the aces shouldn't be subtracted from your outs count. If you don't, re-read Brians post, it's a good one.