Too tenative?

[kenstall]

I don't have the HH for this.

Early in a Party Multi Super Qualifier. Blinds 10/20
I'm in the BB with 42 hearts. 4 callers, I check.
Flop is 358, 2 hearts.
2 checks
CO goes all in ~900
SB calls with 10 seconds left on timer.
I have ~900
Call or fold?

[joyride]

Fold?

[jayrutz2]

Fold. EV may be slightly positive, but why bust out 2/3 of the time on the stgt8t draw and lose a bunch of the time if you hit the baby flush. Easy fold. Seems to me a WEAK calling hand in this situation for your whole stack!

[Player111]

I would fold, I doubt they both go in with just a pair, so at least one of them must be drawing for the flush with you, if it hits you're beat with a higher flush, if it doesn't you're only hope is the straight ..a little too risky for me.

[SossMan]

at first I thought this was an easy call, but so many times those gross overbets are draws. Since you have the worst flush draw imaginable, that may mean that you are drawing to 6 outs (the non flush OESD outs...assuming the 3 and 5 are not both /images/graemlins/heart.gif's...if they are, I might lean towards calling here).

I prefer to be pushing with my OESD and flush draws, so I would probably fold here since you have no folding equity. I definitely would have bet out on that flop, though. I'm usually not scared of someone having a higher flush draw, but this action indicates that that is likely here.

So, I think you have a fold here unless the 8 isn't a heart.

[ThingDo]

Hmmm, is this a Open ended straight flush draw or just a flush draw and a OESD? EIther way I think you should fold, but I would have bet the flop and re-raised a raise that doesn't commit the raiser. And by re-raise I mean push.

[SossMan]

EIther way I think you should fold, but I would have bet the flop and re-raised a raise that doesn't commit the raiser. And by re-raise I mean push.


if the original better is pushing when checked to, I doubt he'll raise something that doesn't commit him if the hero bets out a pot sized bet (~100).


Hmmm, is this a Open ended straight flush draw or just a flush draw and a OESD? EIther way I think you should fold

Well, if we put one of them on overcards w/ a flush draw and the other one on top pair this is the EV distribution:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=481233
pokenum -h 2h 4h - kh th - js 8c -- 3h 5h 8s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 5h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4h 2h 293 32.45 610 67.55 0 0.00 0.324
Kh Th 318 35.22 585 64.78 0 0.00 0.352
Js 8c 292 32.34 611 67.66 0 0.00 0.323


it's EV nuetral.

wheras:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=481234
pokenum -h 2h 4h - kh th - js 8c -- 3h 5s 8h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 5s 8h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4h 2h 212 23.48 691 76.52 0 0.00 0.235
Kh Th 398 44.08 505 55.92 0 0.00 0.441
Js 8c 293 32.45 610 67.55 0 0.00 0.324


This is clearly -EV.

I think it makes a pretty large difference.

If we allow for the chance that another flush draw might not be out there, then this is the EV calc:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=481236
pokenum -h 2h 4h - 9s 9d - js 8c -- 3h 5s 8h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 5s 8h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4h 2h 513 56.81 390 43.19 0 0.00 0.568
9s 9d 286 31.67 617 68.33 0 0.00 0.317
Js 8c 104 11.52 799 88.48 0 0.00 0.115


hugely +EV...a 56% favorite on a better than 2:1 payoff.

[ThingDo]

Just so we are clear, and I think we are .. but just clarifying.. I was saying, bet the flop, if raised a non commital bet, push. I was saying that if he checks the flop he should fold to the all-ins because this looks like a draw to me. One thing I'd like to note though... I think you are being slightly results oriented in a way as you knew that the better moved in. Not knowing either of the holdings its possible the first pusher could have played it much differently based on the bet on the flop from the hero.

[jayrutz2]

If we allow for the chance that another flush draw might not be out there, then this is the EV calc:

1) Seems like a HUGE assumption

2) Even so, it is early and do you want to go out of the tourney 44 out of 100 times. I'l look for 65% to make this a go.

[kenstall]

The hand was an OESD. The 8 was a heart.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If we allow for the chance that another flush draw might not be out there, then this is the EV calc:

1) Seems like a HUGE assumption

2) Even so, it is early and do you want to go out of the tourney 44 out of 100 times. I'l look for 65% to make this a go.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. That's why I did both calculations...you would have to calculate the conditional probabilities to do a weighted EV calculation. Simply, if you are in the worst case (up against a pair and a bigger flush draw) you are EV neutral. So, the amount of +EV'ness would come from the % of time that we are in the favorable position times your overlay.

2. If you are saying what I think you are saying, does this mean you will fold if they show you J8 and 99? Sure, you will lose 44% of the time, but you are getting paid 2:1 as a 56% favorite.

EV:
56% of the time you win 2000 chips. 2000*.56 = 1120
44% of the time you lose 900 chips. 900 * .44 = 396

+EV of 1120 - 396 = 724

I doubt you, or anyone for that matter, is good enough to pass up on EV that is 80% of your stack.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Not knowing either of the holdings its possible the first pusher could have played it much differently based on the bet on the flop from the hero.



[/ QUOTE ]

point taken

[jayrutz2]

QUOTE:

2. If you are saying what I think you are saying, does this mean you will fold if they show you J8 and 99? Sure, you will lose 44% of the time, but you are getting paid 2:1 as a 56% favorite.

EV:
56% of the time you win 2000 chips. 2000*.56 = 1120
44% of the time you lose 900 chips. 900 * .44 = 396

+EV of 1120 - 396 = 724
"

Well, kinda, sorta.
Here's my 3 questions,
1) what is the EV to % of busting out that makes it worth gambling?
2)Even if the odds are 50/50 between the 2 scenarios, now you are down to 53% win rate. Late in tourney, when I am trying to win rather than survive, but early on, still feels like an easy fold...am I just way to conservative?

[SossMan]

1) what is the EV to % of busting out that makes it worth gambling?

Well, there isn't really a "formula", but there is a pretty good argument made by some players who are much better than myself to take ANY +EV early in a tournament. (i.e. chipEV is equal to $$EV) Greg Raymer and Paul Phillips both are of this school of thought.
Obviously, the higher the % of busting, the proportionally higher the EV should be. I don't want to take a small amount of EV if I'm going to bust out a 80% of the time...but for the right price, early in a tourney, it is probably worth it.

2)Even if the odds are 50/50 between the 2 scenarios, now you are down to 53% win rate. Late in tourney, when I am trying to win rather than survive, but early on, still feels like an easy fold...am I just way to conservative?

If the odds were 50/50, my chips would fly into the pot. I was thinking it would get close at something like 20%. I think you, and many other players, overvalue survival to a point where you pass up on significant EV and you simply end up gambling in a different way later with less chips and less of an edge.

Here's my 3 questions


1, 2, ......??????? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jayrutz2]

My history in multi table would certainly say I overvalue survival /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Here's to a more aggressive game!
K

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
My history in multi table would certainly say I overvalue survival /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Here's to a more aggressive game!
K

[/ QUOTE ]

go, aggro, go!!

[adanthar]

I'd call for a very basic reason: with a 3K stack later on, you can steal until the cows come home and sleep into the money/qualifying with even a little luck.

Your EV from tripling your stack in a 100-200 person satellite tournament where everyone plays tight and folds to the big stack is way higher than the chip count indicates.

[Jason Strasser]

Sossman,

I'm surprised you would call here. I'm also surprised that you try to prove a point by shoving random hands into twodimes.net to prove why you should call.

The simple fact that you could be facing a higher flush, makes this fold incredibly easy. I would be all for check/raising all-in with this hand--because if you add fold equity onto this hand, then you are making a positive EV play in my mind.

But an all-in and a call? Advocating a call here is terrible advice.

It's like calling an all-in with 33, sometimes you are even, and sometimes you are way behind, and you don't have to be way behind very often to make folding correct a lot of the time. The times you are behind here, you are going to be really behind, and it's just not worth getting involved when you don't have a chance to win the pot without going to show down.

-Jason

[SossMan]

Jason,
reread my original post

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The simple fact that you could be facing a higher flush, makes this fold incredibly easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it depends on if the 8 was a heart (which the original poster has said it wasn't). So, according to my first post, I would fold.
However, if you think it's "incredebily easy" to fold if the 8 is black, then I believe you are mistaken.