K6 - call all-in?

[hansarnic]

Three left in $100 SNG. I have T6k on button, blinds have T2k each, big blind is T300. Play is pretty tight as these two wait for one to make a mistake.

I raise with K6o to 700, then they both go all-in.

Who calls this?

[Phill S]

just fold it like you would a cheap suit.

you made the correct steal attempt. now fold and let one knock the other out, or at least cripple him.

just cruise through to second, then take it from there. games can be won here, but i tihnk your more likely to bring on more trouble come the last two than to by-pass it completly.

its 1300 to win 4700. so pot odds arent bad. id be slightly more inclinded to call with 87s. you know your behind then, and you always have outs to win. with K6 your prolly dominated, which makes these pot odds less pretty. especially as you have to cut through both opponents to show a win.

Phill

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]

its 1300 to win 4700. so pot odds arent bad. id be slightly more inclinded to call with 87s. you know your behind then, and you always have outs to win. with K6 your prolly dominated, which makes these pot odds less pretty. especially as you have to cut through both opponents to show a win.

Phill

[/ QUOTE ]

How are pot odds relevant? They're both all-in, if I win the hand I win $500 if I lose I'm HU for $500/$300 outchipped 6:4

All that's relevant is my chance of winning the hand.

You're right though, I could well be dominated here, which was why I folded - but I think in retrospect maybe I should have called. As an example, up against AQ and JJ I still win 1 in 4 which would make the call correct. It's even better if they both have Ax as I win it 1 in 3.

[Phill S]

i now realise pot odds are irrelivant to the call, a mix of theories there. my bad, ok then,

the point, i think, is that if you fold youve got some 5300 chips to their 4700 heads up, making you the fave to win.

if you call however, your an underdog to win it then, and you make yourself an underdog to win it heads up too. (all skill assumed to be the same).

all said id take the safer first option. but i can see the temptation to take the second.

Phill

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]
i now realise pot odds are irrelivant to the call, a mix of theories there. my bad, ok then,

the point, i think, is that if you fold youve got some 5300 chips to their 4700 heads up, making you the fave to win.

if you call however, your an underdog to win it then, and you make yourself an underdog to win it heads up too. (all skill assumed to be the same).

all said id take the safer first option. but i can see the temptation to take the second.

Phill

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, agreed.

But if you fold your EV is just over $400.

And if you are 20% to win the hand and you call then your EV is the same.

Therefore anything over 20% you should call.

And I think I'll be over 20% here a lot of the time, therefore should call.

Just thought it was interesting that a call with pretty much any kind of dross seems correct. In fact, I think it's even borderline with 72o.

I had a similar situation this week with two stacks moving in on my BB when I was the chipleader and folded J3s, which I now realise was probably also a mistake.

[Phill S]

hmm. with me i dont like the advanced theory behind these kinds of moves.

20% chance of a win is a 80% chance of losing. plus its not like drawing with a negative prob like a flush draw, as you wont be able to do this over and over again to make it profitable (well, in theory over a playing lifetime you could). it comes down to the point that even at 20%, its profitable 1 in 5 times, and the smaller win (ie the fold) is more attractive to me with a 4 in 5 chance of it being profitable (other 1 in5 is a pure guestimate of the chance of a split, not sure if this is in the ball park, but it is illistrative of my point).

personally i like to go for the 1 time approach to most situations, especially things like this.

if i knew they had the same hand (not pocket pairs) id make this call, but i wouldnt be comfortable to ever make this kind of read, certainly not if i dont have to.

but its certainly interesting, and i like the theory behind it. and its certainly food for thought for the future.

Phill

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Three left in $100 SNG. I have T6k on button, blinds have T2k each, big blind is T300. Play is pretty tight as these two wait for one to make a mistake.

I raise with K6o to 700, then they both go all-in.

Who calls this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the PFR. I would rather just push in and hope to win the blinds. Basicallly you just gave 700 away. You also could set yourself up for a stop and go. I like to do that sometimes.

[dethgrind]

[ QUOTE ]
And I think I'll be over 20% here a lot of the time, therefore should call.

Just thought it was interesting that a call with pretty much any kind of dross seems correct. In fact, I think it's even borderline with 72o.


[/ QUOTE ]

This depends a lot on the quality of hands you think you are up against. The first opponent to go all-in over the top of you could have a large range of holdings. The second player almost certainly has a premium hand. For example, your K6o against the following ranges of hands is only 19%:

player 1: AA-55, AKs-A7s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo
player 2: AA-77, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo

You need 21.6% to break even (by my calculation). 72o in this scenario is only 16.5%. J3s is 21.1%.

I'm using this calculator. (http://koti.mbnet.fi/jraevaar/pokercalculator/)

So depending on how tight you think your opponents are, folding here might be the best choice.

[J.A.Sucker]

Forget if they chop the hand after it's run out.

If you fold, you're even money to win the tourney, and guaranteed 2nd. You will get back 400 bucks on average (payouts are 300 and 500, IIRC).

If you call, you are guaranteed 2nd, and will win whatever percentage of the time your hand is good. The worst case scenario is you're against AA and KK here. You're win percentage is still 5.6% (according to my twodimes sim). Even if you lose, you'll have 40% of the chips, and have a 40% chance of winning. Thus, you're expected to win 0.056(500) + 0.4(500) + 0.544(300) = 391.20. Sounds like a close to break-even proposition to me, even if you're really up a creek. This is an easy call, unless they show you AA and KK.

You're real mistake was not going all-in yourself preflop.

Edit: I just realized that most of your equity is to chop the hand in this situation. That said, you should still call, since you're not in this much trouble.

[RJCarter]

[ QUOTE ]
The worst case scenario is you're against AA and KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, i think kk v. 66 would be must worse

[J.A.Sucker]

You're right. Still call, though.

[dethgrind]

If you fold and one of them gets knocked out, your EV is .53*500 + .47*300 = $406

If you call and win, your prize is $500. If you call and lose, your EV is .4*500 + .6*300 = $380. Let's call your probability of calling and winning x. The break even point is when we have the following:

x*500 + (1-x)*(380) = 406

The answer is x= 26/120 ~ 21.7%.

If your chance of winning the three-way battle is less than 21.7%, folding is correct. Otherwise you should call.

Looking at some reasonable hand ranges (http://koti.mbnet.fi/jraevaar/pokercalculator/) for your opponents, it looks like you should fold here. It really depends on how tight they are.