NL optimal stack size theory question

[1800GAMBLER]

You have developed a 'system' for a low buy in no limit game.

The game is always ten handed, the players are loose both preflop and postflop, they limp 30% of hands and call a raise with 10% of hands, they aren't tricky enough to limp AA etc and they would always raise hands AA KK QQ AK preflop. On the flop they would always call with any pair or any strong draw else fold.

Your system is that you sit down with x amount of big blinds. When you are dealt AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 AK AQ AJ you always raise to 4x the big blind and then you always push in for x - 4 (the rest of your stack) on the flop, regardless of the flop. If there is a raise infront of you then you fold JJ TT 99 AQ and push all in for x amount with AA KK QQ AK. This results in no turn or river play.

What would the optimal value for x be? Give reasons please.

[Michael Davis]

Is one of the stipulations that the other players never catch onto your system?

-Michael

[xrongor]

in terms of x, how deep are your pockets, are we assuming infinite since its low limit?

[1800GAMBLER]

The players never realise the system. br is infinite.

[cornell2005]

this can be solved mathematically to get a pretty precise answer i think, but i dont have time to actaully do the math, so ha. looks like youve given us almost all the information we would need.

given their preflop raise-calling standards, id guess that if you dumped aj from your system, the optimal buyin and expected profit would increase

i also believe that the optimal stack size is going to be very big here. the post flop behavior you have given your opponents very strongly rewards you having them all covered. if those conditions hold you should probably dumb aq also and buyin for your whole bankroll.

as opponents actions become more reasonable post flop (they will fold a middle pair to an all in) the optimal bankroll should decrease

last, it would probably be necessary to know what your opponents buy in for. (50xbb, 100xbb, more?)

[Michael Davis]

Forgive me for attempting a stupid answer, I don't know how to solve these problems, but wouldn't x be as high as possible? You have chosen hands that are often going to be good on the flop even when people are calling you. Plus, lots of times you're going to be taking down the pot. So I think the closer to infinity x is, the better.

-Michael

[1800GAMBLER]

X being very high would damage your risk-reward.

When you have AK on a missed flop and push your bluff has to be success too high of a %. When you have AA on a flop and push with a large stack you are only going to be called when beat. When i said they will call with any pair or draw they reasonable to how much they will call, they are loose but they aren't going to call massive amounts, each player will have an amount they are willing to call the amount is unknown but it's probably around 1.5x the pot.

You need to perfectly match it so you aren't risking too much on your AK bluffs yet doing it so it has some success yet also match it so you get paid off with hands.

[Atropos]

I have a similiar question like you, hope you dont mind if I ask in this thread since it is quite similiar:

How big would the optimal stack size be, if you enter a 6max NL Game being the Big Blind, and you always push all-in, no matter which cards you have? I think this system could actually be profitable in tight games, since the opponents will call you only with maybe AA/KK, if no one ever calls you, that would mean 25BB/100 hands, if you find enough tables to pull the system off /images/graemlins/smile.gif
It would be cool if such a thing was possible, since the advertising value for showing an all-in with 83o could be huge.

[Zim]

Actually, to give due credit ...

Skalansky`s modified all-in tournament system.

I`m probably butchering it terribly, but...

If you go through the numbers, assuming 4 people will limp in on the flop, and you sitting in the middle ...

Max bankroll will be 38 BBs, before you start to tighten up
And anything less than 26 BBs, you could include more hands.

As for the 6 handed table, all-in with anything, assuming 2 people are limping in on the flop ...

15 BBs (maximum)

Actually, I tried such a system last night. Just for fun.

I started at a $2 NL max table, buying in for the minimum ...calculating my "Key" number as per Skalansky`s directions ... and going all-in with his hand recommendations.

(I`d post them, but Skalansky doesn`t like me doing that)

Everytime I doubled up, rather than tighten my play ... I would do a minimum buy in at the next higher table.

(sorta like turning ring games into a tournament)

Long story short ... worked myself up to a $200 NL table where I was promptly crushed by going all-in with a suited K.

Still, it was amusing.

Best,
Invader Zim

[cornell2005]

dump aq ak aj in this game! its not the question but so what its easier. im cruising the mediteranian at the moment, so suck a nut. HAHAHA. visiting that french riveria casino tomorrow, not sure the name.

[theBruiser500]

What is the point of this question? I don't see what you're getting at...

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
Is one of the stipulations that the other players never catch onto your system?

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time you win, you leave the table and buy in to another table, possably at another site. With all the data mining going on, the odd person might catch on eventually. Don't see a problem.

[Runner Runner]

My rough estimate is that it's got to be between 25 and 50 BB's. Think about it, if it was lower then 25, then you won't be getting great value out of your big hands, or having enough to push someone off a solid but not great hand that has you beat. If it was higher then 50, then you are just going to be stealing small pots, but losing too much when you are called and obviously beat. Because of the fact that you have AQ and AJ in there, I am going to go for the low end of the spectrum and say 30 BBs would be optimal.

[Aisthesis]

That's roughly what I was thinking. Also, the other players have the option of folding or calling. Hence, with anything but AA, you're pretty vulnerable to some ace hands just waiting for the ace (perhaps that's why in the hand range several ace hands were included).

And even there, it's also profitable for the others to draw to a set on pocket pairs if you're anywhere above 25xBB.

I suspect that even if the hand range were AA alone, your stack size shouldn't be all that much over 50 due to the options the other players have for counterplay.

With the wider hand range, 30 sounds about right to me for the strategy to have maximum profit.

[cnfuzzd]

First, this doesnt seem to be a great way of playing your big drawing hands, and possible your big, but not monster, pocket pairs. If these players are such horrible players, one should give oneself the possibility of outplaying them on the turn and river.

Second. I think the answer, especially with an infinite bankroll, has x being equal to the largest stack at the table. You are taking a purely mathmatical approach to the game, using the loose calling standards of the table to get your money in the middle when you are a favorite but still with cards to come. Because of this, i think you want to give yourself every opportunity to gain the most when your statistical advantage holds up.

Finally, i think the question, as posted, is missing the most important piece of information, namely the amount of money on the table. It doesnt matter if your mathematically optimal at 100bb's, if everyone at the table has 5bb's in front of them.

peace

john nickle

[cornell2005]

for someone to do the math. its an interesting question, im surprised noone has really taken the time yet.

p.s. i dont remember making that last post of mine.

[Louie Landale]

The size of the bet doesn't seem to make any difference to anybody's strategy. Therefore, if YOUR strategy is really a good one then you need more chips than anybody else. If your strategy is really a piglette then your bet amount is 4x.

- Louie

[Baulucky]

I'm going to go with x just under 36 big blinds.

I think that's close to the optimal x, because it makes all baby PPs calling preflop to draw a set, a -EV decision long term. I believe other hands do worse than baby PPs against a push on the flop.

Tough question.

[Baulucky]

1-What does the prososed system do against a re-raise preflop?.

2-What about against an allin on your right on the flop?.

I.e.: What does the system do against a bettor/raiser in general?.

[chaz64]

Reading this thread reminded me of a story I saw on MSNBC just a few weeks ago:

Are poker ‘bots’ raking online pots? (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6002298/)

I also recall Phil Hellmuth in his new book advising players to only play 77 and up, AK and AQ (can you say "rock"?), and if he could write a program to play poker online, that is what he would have it do.

Someone here writing some code?? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Des]

I often use this type of play when empire puts the free $10 in my acct. Take a $5 buy-in and get to $10 then move on.

I would think that your stack size should be about 25 to 30 times the BB. Just enough to make em not want to call.