$30-$60 Problem

This is a 9-handed $30-$60 game at the Bellagio. Our own "Sunglasses Mike" is sitting right next to me.


I am in the small blind with the 6h-6d. It is folded to the cutoff who open-raises. The cutoff is a loose, aggressive player. The button folds. I 3-bet because the cutoff is probably trying to steal and I want to eliminate the big blind. The big blind folds. The cutoff calls. There is $210 in the pot and two players.


The flop is: 8s-6s-3h, giving me middle set. I bet. The cutoff calls. There is $270 in the pot.


The turn is the Jc. I bet. The cutoff calls. There is $390 in the pot.


The river is the Td. I bet. The cutoff raises to $120. What do I do?


I will post the results later.

I would say you have to call given the money in the pot, plus the possibility of your opponent raising with a weaker hand. However, your bet on the end was incorrect.


Bob J.

I would think about reraising but call.


D.

Jim,


This sequence usually indicates your opponent was very strong from the beginning and was trapping all the way. But was it with a set (88 or 33) or with a big overpair? Other possibilities include a pair of jacks, where he planned to raise the turn but decided to slow down once he turned a set.


On the river don’t go to war – just call. You are getting about 10 to 1 so folding is insane IMO. Hands he could reasonably have that you also beat may not even call your raise (except AA or KK or 33) and hands that beat you will usually reraise.


Regards,


Rick

Since he/she is a loose aggressive player, I'd call. Likely beat by a set of 10s consistent with his earlier bets. Not likely to have 8s nor Js as didnt raise on the flop or turn. Outside chance of having maybe 9Q or even 79 to make a straight.

"The cutoff is a loose, aggressive player"


"What do I do?"


If your assesment is correct then Reraise, see if he has an overpair or two pair or has you beat. Check and calling the river is an option also, but that depends on your immediate assessment at the table. From my distance, I can't tell.


I like the three-bet preflop.


Did you ponder a check-raise on the turn? This may have helped define your river situation.


-Zeno

Bob,


Why do you think Jim's river bet was incorrect?


~ Rick

I think Mr. LAG has two pair, jacks and tens, which temps me to reraise. However, it's going to suck if he goes to four bets, because you're going to have to call. At that time, you will probably be saying "D'OH!" when you see three tens, three jacks, or a straight. Therefore it's probably best to just call. It's probably not worth the extra risk required to get an extra bet in this instance.


Dave in Cali

I believe the most likely holding is 97 followed by Q9. I would think I am beat but would call due to the high pot odds and my insecurity in how well I read hands, /images/smile.gif.


My reasoning is as follows:


Preflop: An aggressive player would most likely reraise with JJ or higher.

Flop: 8s-6s-3h An aggressive player would most likely raise with 1010 or 99.

Turn: 8 6 3 J, An aggressive player would raise if he paired the J, or would probably raise with any other pair. I think he would also raise any set at this point also.

River: 8 6 3 J 10...

I would discount any set as I believe an aggressive player would have raised by now, if he does have a set it is most likely 1010 as maybe he would just call flop waiting to raise turn if a favorable card falls. In any case, if I'm wrong the only set you can beat is 33.


I would discount any high pair as he would have raised on flop or turn.


I would discount two pair as I think an aggressive player would have raised flop or turn to protect the pair.


So I believe you are beat but I would still call, /images/smile.gif.


MatthewH

a loose- aggressive player would probably not (and should not) slowplay huge hands here. It is unlikely they have AA, KK, or a set, as it seems like JB has a hand and will not be running away quickly.


So here are some possibilities -


A rivered set (unlikely, as JJ probably raises on the flop or turn). 3 ways, but lets call it two since it;s a little weird.


A rivered straight. 16 ways, or 4 ways, depending on how loose.


A rivered 2 pair. This seems reasonable. 9 ways.

TJ would raise preflop, and tens may not raise the turn, as it appears Jim has a big pair.


A rivered top pair. This seems unlikely. For this to happen, the plyer needs to have a flush draw. The flush draw probably has overcards, so one would think this hand raises somewhere earlier as a semibluff or free card purchase.


A turned straight. Again, why slowplay when the hand is disguised and Jim seems to be strong.


A bluff from a busted AK/AQ/KQ.


So I think the play is to reraise if the player would raise with Q9s but not Q9o (or would raise with neither), and to just call otherwise.


Dan Z.

I haven't read the other responses, but I imagine that I am soundly in the majority when I say 3-bet without a second thought. Given that board, I might even 5-bet if I am 4-bet, but that extremity is player dependant.

I haven't read the other responses, but I imagine that I am soundly in the majority when I say 3-bet without a second thought.


Do you remember what we were talking about the other day-- the impact of poker literature on thinking players? Apprently not. You didn't apply it here.

I noticed that when I went back and looked. Oh well, I stick with my post. There are way more ways for him to have stumbled onto 2 pair here or to have played an overpair this way than there are for him to have a bigger set.

Hey Jim,


Y'know, I don't remember the board coming out quite that way(I remember T on the flop and J on the river, but it was your hand so I'll have to defer). When he raised you on the end I thought, "uh oh, Jim's big pocket pair just got beat by J's and T's. When you showed the set I was surprised...one more bet I think, even if this player is capable of making some goofy running straight.


Mike

I say three bet. If he stuck around all that way for some sort of goofy back door straight then oh well. Otherwise, his hand is screaming two pair and you will get paid off.

He is aggressive. No way JT calls the flop calls the turn. He raises or is gone.


Set og 8's he has top seyt and is pretty comfy with the fact that Jim did not cactch set of tens or jacks


Call.

I think his bet on the end was incorrect also.

Check and call on the river. I think the way the action has gone makes it likely that he was beat.

Good to see Jim hasn't forgotten us!

I just called. For me the choice was between 3-betting and just calling. Folding a set here would be unthinkable. I won as my opponent had J-T for a rivered two pair. In retrospect, I think there is such a vast array of hands that this guy would steal-raise with preflop, that two pair is far more likely than a straight or a set. With an overpair, which turned into a set on the turn or the river, he would have raised my flop bet. I think I wimped out here.


Thanks for the responses.

Jim,


He played that JT weird. I never would have put him on that hand.


Regards,


Rick

Well, Mike if you are correct, then my failure to 3-bet is even a worse mistake. The reason is that if he had made a straight, it would have been on the turn not at the river so he would have clearly popped me on the turn. Therefore, we can rule out a straight making a better hand even more unlikely. Now I feel really bad!

I still think 2 pair is not a very likely holding as long as this player was aggressive as you said in the post. The highest card on the turn is a J. I would raise the turn with any pair to protect my vulnerable pair against 2 overcards and I think most aggressive players would do the same. The only exception would be if this player has total respect for you and thinks you only reraise preflop with a premium pair, which I doubt was the case.


Interesting hand.


MatthewH

This might have been one time where you could have three-bet on the river and then folded if he reraised. At that point there would have been $810 in the pot ($390 from the turn plus 7 big bets), so you can fold if your probability of winning is less than 6.9%. Unless your opponent is a totally wild player, he won't four-bet without a straight. The chance that he would four-bet with, say, top two or bottom set, when you could easily have a straight, has to be vanishingly small -- probably 2-3%.


This means that you should be more inclined to three-bet, because you don't have to worry about being reraised. Basically you should three-bet if it's more likely than not that you have the best hand. (Whereas if you feared a reraise that you would call, you could only three-bet if there were a 67% chance you had the best.)


You can take all the two-card combinations that are more or less consistent with how he played his hand: Q9s, Q9o, 97s, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, 33, AJs, AJo, JTs, and JTo (I'm assuming that he would have open-raised preflop with 97s but not 97o). Counting combinations, there are lots more things he could have that lose to your 66.


But this hinges on your willingness to fold if four-bet -- which in a "real game" situation I would hardly ever do. I would want five or ten minutes to think before making this laydown and of course in a real game I would just call rather than delay the game. And if I weren't prepared to lay down if reraised, then I think it becomes negative-EV to three-bet. This is an example of what Tommy Angelo referred to as your "home game" being different from your "away game" (http://www.twoplustwo.com/cgi-bin/newforums/mediumholdem.pl?read=49367).

[adios]

First time posting with the new forum software. Again this is a situation where how good you are at putting an opponent on a particular hand will dictate your play.