87s on the button - getting aggressive after flop

This was in a good 10-20 game. Good in a different kind of way though. There were too many rocks, but there were also 2 players that I knew could be pushed off a hand. One of them was in EP in this hand.


On the hand in question, UTG limps, EP limps, MP limps, cutoff limps, and I limp from the button with 8d7d. The SB and BB come along. Seven players to the flop for 7 SBs.


Flop: 8c 6d 4h


Checked to me, I bet. SB and BB fold, UTG folds, EP, MP, and cutoff call.


Four to the turn for 5.5 BBs.


Turn: [8c 6d 4h] Jd


It's checked to me again. I bet and EP check raises. Everyone folds. I'm pretty sure he's got just a J. He often calls on the flop with overcards and he doesn't play loose enough before the flop to have 2 pair here. I think he would have bet the flop with a set.


I'm pretty sure I've got 17 outs. 9 flush cards, 3 non diamond 5's, 3 7's, and 2 8's. I also think he is capable of laying down top pair with a so so kicker. So, I 3 bet. He calls.


River: [8c 6d 4h Jd] Td


He check calls and my flush is good. He had AJo.


Thoughts? Should I just call the turn and see if I hit on the river? I would most likely make the same number of bets that way, but I would lose the possibility of winning without hitting one of my outs.

Although your reraise has image value, it's highly unlikely your opponent would check-raise the turn with a hand that doesn't beat yours, therefore it's reasonable to conclude that you are behind. Even if you have 17 outs, there are still 29 cards you don't want to see, which also means you will lose more than half the time. For these reasons I would just call. An added benefit of playing this way is that you might hit one of your outs and get a chance to raise if he bets into you again. Your outs aren't especially obvious, particularly the flush outs, because they are runner-runner. Also, the pot is big, so you're probably not going to want to fold on the river, even if you don't improve. Unless the image considerations are worth it (which is doubtful), it's probably not worth it to reraise here.


Dave in Cali

Dave –


Welcome back! Your wit and poker analysis has been sorely missed. I play at the Lucky Lady and often wonder whether I will ever cross paths with the Super-Magoo, Super-Genius!


My analysis of JTG’s hand is based on a Dave in Cali post dated Monday, January 8, 2001 (Sorry, I don’t know the archive its in) which is among many which I have saved. I have no doubt that I have made several errors along the way.


JTG - First of all, lets trust your excellent read and conclude your opponent has no set or 2 pair. Your pot odds on the turn were 8.5:1. The odds against hitting a hand that beat jacks are 29:17 or 37%. Calling is obviously a positive EV play, the question is whether re-raising is a stronger EV move than mere calling.


The answer depends on the probability of your opponent folding. I would think, in general, a turn check-raiser would fold less than a player who bets and is then raised, and less still than a player who is check-raised himself. But here, we have assumed that the turn check-raise does not mean big hand, but rather a pair of J’s. You told us that your opponent is capable of folding a J with a weak kicker. Lets make up some figures: He will have AJ and KJ 60% of the time, QJ , JT, and J9 40% of the time, and he will fold the latter 25 % of the time. He therefore will fold 10% of the time.


When you raise, your pot odds are reduced to 8.5:2 Your semi-bluff needs to work twice in 8.5 chances for it to be a positive EV move. At 37% to improve and 10% for a fold, you have a combined: 43% chance or 1.3:1. So you are just less than even money to win. That’s a clear +EV, but is it better than calling?


(Note: Somewhere in the 2+2 Archives, on Oct of 2000, there was an excellent exchange between Abdul Jalib and Mark Dodd on EV calculations. I am using Mark Dodd’s EV formula)


For EV calculations, if the odds against an event are X:A, and the payout for a wager on the event isY:B, then substituting into the above expression will yield EV = (A*Y-B*X)/(B*(X+A)).


Calling: X=29, A=17, Y=8.5, B=1

(17*8.5-1*29)/1*46=2.32BB’s


Raising X=1.3 A=1, Y=8.5, B=2


(1*8.5-2*1.3)/2*2.3=5.9-4.6=1.3BB


If my figures are correct (lol), It seems from my that calling is better by 1 big bet. However, 90% of the time your will get that big bet back when your opponent does not fold. In other words, your implied odds make it about even at 10% chance of a fold.


Other considerations favor raising – free showdown, image. However, your read may not be correct and you could face a re-raise yourself on the turn vs. a set. All in all it depends on the likelihood of a fold, anything over 10% chance, I would re-raise.

I'm not in San Diego right now, otherwise you would be seeing me at the Lucky Lady. Please pass this message on for me though...


To all the beautiful ladies who make my heart skip a beat, I love you all and miss you all. I shall return....


Dave in Cali