What was he thinking?

[CCass]

This is my final hand from the $10+1 Re-buy last night on Stars. I hope it doesn't come off as me whining about a bad beat, because I really want to know what you guys think my opponent was thinking. I also would like commentary on my play, but I think I played it correctly.

59 players remain, blinds 3K/6K with a 200 ante. I am in the BB with 114K, villan is EMP with 330K (chip leader at this point). All folds to villan, who raises to 12K, all fold to SB (100K) who calls, and I call with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Flop is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB checks, I check, villan bets 12K, SB folds, I call. Turn is the beautiful 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I check, villan bets 40K, and I push. Villan thinks for a few seconds and calls. He turns over A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif, the river is the 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and I lose to the bigger flush.

So my questions are:

1) Did I miss-play the hand at any point?

2) What the heck was he thinking when I pushed?

[Officer Farva]

You're assuming he was thinking.

He figured he had the heart outs, overcards, or that you were bluffing. Bad players like him have a lot of trouble getting away from a good hand like AQ. In his mind, you don't even realize how great of a hand he had, so you are clearly wrong in raising him.

But don't be upset. You got in as a 5:1 favorite. In the long run, you want him to call with that hand.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
But don't be upset. You got in as a 5:1 favorite. In the long run, you want him to call with that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in a tournament he doesn't. He was the big stack and could afford to gamble to bust somebody. I don't feel like doing the calculations, but I think the pot was laying him pretty well to try and call the all in.

[SossMan]

pot is laying him exactly 2:1 and he has a nut flush draw with one card to come on a paired board.
Unless his opponent is betting with a one-pair hand smaller than a Q, he doesn't have the odds to call.

[Tosh]

The pot is laying a touch under 4/1. The worst play the villain made was betting the turn.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
pot is laying him exactly 2:1 and he has a nut flush draw with one card to come on a paired board.
Unless his opponent is betting with a one-pair hand smaller than a Q, he doesn't have the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is laying him about 2.5-1. 38k pf. 24k on flop, 62k total. 40k bet, 40k call. 142k pot, 56k all in. He has a huge stack and decides to gamble and catches. That is the beauty of being a big stack.

[Tosh]

54k to call and when he raises all in, there is now nearly 200k in the pot.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
54k to call and when he raises all in, there is now nearly 200k in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I knew I would screw it up. Which is why I didn't want to do it in my first reply.

[Officer Farva]

The "beauty" of being the big stack is not pertinent here. I doubt you are going to come across a much better chance than 5:1 to double up. Its called getting in with the best of it. The beauty of the biig stack isn't calling down as a 5:1 underdog, but rather forcing out a slight favorite (as he could have down preflop or even on the flop). And your point about pot odds is just wrong.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is laying a touch under 4/1. The worst play the villain made was betting the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree, but I think the villain made lots of errors.

Minraising preflop was the first.

Underbetting the pot on the flop could be argued to be a second, depending on his typical raise. With actual cards it was a mistake not to charge more

Betting the turn was awful.

If all his hearts were live, then calling when he’s a 4.8 to 1 chance to flush when the pot is laying 4:1 is a bad call. And since he could reasonably expect our Hero to have a K or a flush, then his outs go down. As it turned out, he was only 6 outs to improve or ~7.3 to 1, so another bad decision.

Hero should be thankful that bad beats happen, so this guy gets rewarded often enough to continue making these terrible plays.

--Greg

[Tosh]

The call is borderline, but probably bad. Sometimes his A's and Q's will be outs too, which helps a bit, sometimes he'll even be ahead. Preflop and the flop are not optimal plays IMO but I am not classing them as huge errors.

[CCass]

No one has said otherwise, so I assume my play pre-flop and on the flop were ok?

[Tosh]

Well I probably take his flop bet to be weak and move in, and if not, bet the turn.

[fnurt]

With 59 players left, the marginal benefit from busting a player is pretty minimal. Now if you're at the final table, sure, now you're talking about a lot more money in your pocket if you bust someone.

I actually find that I often play a big stack poorly in this regard, losing it a chunk at a time making loose calls hoping to bust someone, when I'm supposed to be the aggressor and use it to bully instead.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
With 59 players left, the marginal benefit from busting a player is pretty minimal. Now if you're at the final table, sure, now you're talking about a lot more money in your pocket if you bust someone.

I actually find that I often play a big stack poorly in this regard, losing it a chunk at a time making loose calls hoping to bust someone, when I'm supposed to be the aggressor and use it to bully instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the big stack should be able to play more hands that he is either a small favorite or dog in when he will only put a small amount of his stack in.