Ed Miller's ATs example - It can happen to you! [Archive]

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nolanfan34

09-01-2004, 02:16 PM

Here's a hand that came up last night in my PokerRoom bonus clearing hell, that I thought would be worth posting given the slew of weak-tight PF advice and thinking I've seen cropping up here lately (usually met by an appropriate BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO by bisonbison).

It's a hand that I don't think people instinctively raise with, enough so that Ed Miller devoted a hand quiz to it in his column he spamaliciously ( /images/graemlins/tongue.gif) links to.

PokerRoom 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

 With 4 limpers to you on the button, this should be an easy raise. The BB is likely to come along for the ride most of the time, and if it was limp reraised I'd cap it. This is a raise for value because even if I don't hit my flush draw on the flop, with these limpers I LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HAND.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

 Of course this should be an obvious raise. Against three opponents, I probably have 35%-40% pot equity here as the flop contains no other likely draws besides my flush. Of course my raise isn't driving anyone out, it's building the pot so these guys will feel tied to their hand, if they think they have any chance to win.

Note that had I not raised PF, it would have been most likely 7 SB's in the pot instead of 12.5. While my opponents would have had the odds most likely to call my raise with a piece of the flop, they might not be as tempted to chase in a smaller pot. 

Turn: (9.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Button raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

 In the driver's seat now of course. The pot is big enough that had this card been a blank, I'm of course calling getting plenty of odds to hit my flush outs, and an A on the river would possibly be an out as well. 

River: (15.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Button bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

 Do these guys really think they have the best hand by now? Probably not, but the pot is so big because of my PF raise and flop raise that I'm gaining two BB here when I make my hand, and getting a free showdown when I don't.

Final Pot: 18 BB
Main Pot: 18.00 BB, Button, BB, and UTG+1

BB showed down J /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, UTG+1 had 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and of course MHIG.

The fact I won with this hand is not as important as the reason it's important to raise it pre flop and post flop. It would have been easy to limp in PF, and just call the flop bet. Doing so will cost you 3-4 BB when you make your hand.

After winning 18 BB in this hand, I can miss on my flush, lose my 3 BB investment (2 SB PF, 2 SB on the flop, 1 BB on the turn) 2 out of next 3 times the flush doesn't make it, and easily make a profit in the long run. By not raising PF you can still make a profit, BUT YOU ARE LEAVING MONEY ON THE TABLE WHEN YOU MAKE YOUR HAND.

Obviously there are exceptions, times your flush gets cracked, etc. And I know this seems very basic to many people. But with the influx of new posters trying to digest the wisdom of SSH, I think it's important to remember WHY raising hands like this makes you money in the long run.

bisonbison

09-01-2004, 02:18 PM

Nice hand.

kiemo

09-01-2004, 03:58 PM

I found this hand routine.

ATo isnt so clear preflop.

btspider

09-01-2004, 04:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if it was limp reraised I'd cap it. This is a raise for value because even if I don't hit my flush draw on the flop, with these limpers I LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HAND.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post, just not sure about this part.

nolanfan34

09-01-2004, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I found this hand routine.

ATo isnt so clear preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed on both counts. I do think most posters will find the hand routine, but there have been plenty of posts lately that lead me to believe others can learn from this.

nolanfan34

09-01-2004, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if it was limp reraised I'd cap it. This is a raise for value because even if I don't hit my flush draw on the flop, with these limpers I LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HAND.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post, just not sure about this part.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, at most micro level tables and the crap people limp with, ATs is going to be the best hand PF many times I think. Obviously if you raise and get 3-bet from the SB or BB, or limp re-raised, then this may not be the case. But hands where you raise 4-5 limpers, and just have a bunch of calls in return, I'd bet you usually would have the most pot equity before the flop.

dfscott

09-01-2004, 04:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Note that had I not raised PF, it would have been most likely 7 SB's in the pot instead of 12.5. While my opponents would have had the odds most likely to call my raise with a piece of the flop, they might not be as tempted to chase in a smaller pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a key point. People who are afraid to raise speculative hands pre-flop are the same people who complain when their flop raise takes down the (tiny) pot.

As Zehn

09-01-2004, 05:10 PM

How would you have played the hand if it would have been KhTh instead?

dfscott

09-01-2004, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How would you have played the hand if it would have been KhTh instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I play it the same.

nolanfan34

09-01-2004, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How would you have played the hand if it would have been KhTh instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I'd still raise on the button with that many limpers. Heck, if an offsuit ace falls, and I make my flush on the turn the same way, I might even get more action on the turn from the Ace-anything players who would likely still be in the pot.

rjc199

09-01-2004, 07:10 PM

To mix things up I will also occasionally raise something like T9s or 87s. It will most likely give you a free turn card, and if you flop a weak gutshot draw that can help you alot. I don't make this move alot, but he is a hand from yesterday where I did it as a changeup. I don't think it is +EV, but it is well disguised, and if you show the hand down people will take notice and give you action next time.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero (poster) raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

River: (15.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB
Main Pot: 19.75 BB, between UTG and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (19.75 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG shows 6c Ac (one pair, aces).
Hero shows 9d 8d (straight, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins 19.75 BB. 

It helped that UTG was on semi-tilt. After this hand he went bonkers and blew his whole stack.

Gomez22

09-03-2004, 01:12 AM

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Gomez22 is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Gomez22 raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Gomez22 bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Gomez22 bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (8 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Gomez22 bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB
Main Pot: 10 BB, between Gomez22 and UTG+1.

Considering that the odds of flopping a 4-flush are 8-1, my raise is effectively giving me 9-1 on the odds for the flop. Not counting making a pair, it's easy to see why this is a value raise. Even from the button or CO, it's an easy raise as your hand has alot of value before the flop.

As Ed states in his book, broadway suited cards could even be raised from up front because they hit the flop so frequently, you're going to be playing along. Even from MP, hands like this can be raised for value.

The only trick is: learning how to paly them if the flop misses you or makes your hand a marginal holding at best.

I got some "nice" remarks after playing this hand, which led to at least 3 more big bets won by me in the rest of the session, as 1 player at the table had no respect for my raises after this, so the effects of value raises I find to be two-fold:

1. It builds a pot for a hand that carries alot of value with it for you.

2. It pisses the fish off and many times they chase fool draws that much harder against you.