can someone tell me how to figure out how many outs I have here?

[pstripling]

I have J /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
The board is Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

3 players including me. I know for a fact that one of my opponents has either A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif or QQ

While I know that normally I would look at this board and figure I have 10 outs, knowing what one of my opponents has makes this a whole different story. In one case I have 1 out and in the other I have 9. How do I combine these 2 factors to figure out if the pot justifies a call. If someone could walk me through this so I can figure it out for myself I would appreciate it. Thanks

We can assume that the 3rd player has any 2 cards.

[Lost Wages]

I know for a fact that one of my opponents has either A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif or QQ

In one case I have 1 out and in the other I have 9. How do I combine these 2 factors to figure out if the pot justifies a call.

Weight the estimated probability of each of his holdings by the number of outs against those holdings and add:

outs = P(Hand 1) * (outs against hand 1) + P(Hand 2) * (outs against hand 2) + ...

Following your example, if you think that it is equally likely that he has either hand then your outs are:

outs = (.5)*(9) + (.5)*(1) = 5

Lost Wages

[pstripling]

Thanks, does the fact that there are 3 ways for him to have QQ and only one way to have A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif make any difference?

[Lost Wages]

Excellent point. If you judge that he could have either hand because he would play either hand (and no other) in the manner that he has played then you would have to take that into account when assigning your probabilities, so:

outs = (.25)*(9) + (.75)*(1) = 3

Lost Wages

[pstripling]

Thanks again. The way to figure this out was a lot easier than I thought. I appreciate you taking the time to explain it.

[schwza]

note that it's a little worse than just having 3 clean outs.... when you have clean outs, you know where you stand after the river, but in this hand, you're never sure you're ahead and so can't play aggressively.