10-20 How Many Muck on the Turn Here?

Tight Middle Position player raises, everyone folds to me(I'm on the button), I look down and see AK, I 3 bet. everyone folds, heads up.


Flop is Ah 7s Qc Rainbow.


She Checks - I put her on JJ or KK -


I bet to see where she is, she calls.


Turn is a 2c, she checks, I bet, she raises -


I muck, she flips over AQ for flopped 2 pair.


How many call down to the river?


How man check behind her on the turn thinking her smooth call on the flop means she is slowplaying?


Was my play correct?


-Raxe

I don't think I fold in this spot heads up. I most likely call the turn and river.


Results-wise, your play was right on in this spot... I think I'd have to know the player's tendencies very well to make this fold. You didn't say much about the player other than tight, which could be tight-weak and could be tight-solid. I'd be more inclined to fold against a weak-tight.

I too would have 3-bet pre-flop.


When she checks the flop, I wouldn't have put her on JJ or KK. She will probably check the flop to a 3-bettor no matter what her hand. She's more likely to check raise you on the flop with a hand you can beat (A-J); with a hand that is ahead, she's more likely to wait until the turn to check-raise.


In a bigger game, the turn raise when a 2nd club hits doesn't necessarily mean you're behind. But I'd be more inclined to call if I didn't have the Ac in my hand and against a less tight player. And against inveterate check-raisers, I sometimes check in this situation, in which case opponent almost always bets the river. This might have been best here against a tight player who called a flop containing both an ace and a queen.

How come you can put her on JJ or KK, but not QQ?

A Bayes theorem analysis (combinations of possible hands) would show that KK or JJ is more likely because a Q hit the board. If you haven't seen this type of analysis before it might surprise you how much more likely KK or JJ actually is.

how can KK be a likey candidate when Raxe has AK in his hand, are you telling me.....that QQ now can't be a likely candiate..... and KK can?

Why can't AA be a likely candiate?


and why would you call a Raise with AK, which is an unimproved hand which must hit the flop if the middle position is a tight player and you know will only raise with Big pairs, AK and of course AQ because she did, but AQ is probably the bottom of the list.


if you are deciding what the person is raising with I think you should do it before the flop hits, what if the flop hit all rags.....then where are you and what could you possibly put the raiser on?


-please explain this...... because I'm not grasping it.

I dont think I could get rid of that hand. I agree, at this point it looks like you may have run into QQ but I would also be thinking it was very likely that I was up agaist another AK. At thgat point the only two hands that could have beaten you that made any sense were QQ and AQ. I guess you knew your player well enough to make this fold, but since you were already in for 2 and 1/2 BB and only needed to make 2 more calls, I dont think I could have gotten away for it. But I suppose it all depends on your opponent.