Party NL25 and variance...

[Snoogins47]

Hey there, I'm fairly green to Party NL (played a lot of similar stakes home games, and some among other sites)

I'm in the typical "wtf, I keep getting sucked out on" mode that many people seem... and I know, keep the faith, long session etc. I've been confident in my plays every time, etc. I'm not here to rant, to pray for advice, etc..

My question is simple... what kind of variance and swings do you consistent winners see at Party NL25 and NL50, specifically when four-tabling?

I hear a lot of stories about people who talk about how soft the game is and how they rarely have a losing session...

And obviously, I've got a losing session in the makings right now ;P Just a curiousity, to see what kind of swings are "normal," and if anybody could post stats about these things or whatnot... Thanks all, appreciate the help.

[Fnord]

The full table game used to be far softer before the 6 max tables came. I clearly remember 3 and 4 way all-ins against full stacks with crap not being uncommon.

That being said, a -10 buy-in swing isn't uncommon.

[RPatterson]

[ QUOTE ]
The full table game used to be far softer before the 6 max tables came. I clearly remember 3 and 4 way all-ins against full stacks with crap not being uncommon.

That being said, a -10 buy-in swing isn't uncommon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do the fishier players swim at the 6 max now?

[GimmeDaWatch]

Ya, I think the full tables are less soft now, though still very beatable. I remember when I began playing them last year being in a state of shock at how terrible and crazy alot of the players were. Anyway, I won mostly, but of course its incredibly easy to lose your stack at those tables, and I recall losing my stack 5 times in one day once. The reality of having very bad often aggressive players is that they're gonna suck out on you sometimes. But yes, I did have a downswing once of a little over 10 buy-ins.

[Snoogins47]

I needed some reassurance, I think ;P

Downswings are one thing... but dropping money left and right on your first attempt at a new game/limit/etc... that can be disheartening. It's kinda ironic: at games I play often, I'm almost zenlike, almost TOO comfortable with suckouts, etc. Very longterm.

But whenever I try something new, I have to fight my brain's urges, and those urges are to be horribly results oriented.

Note: The play at the six max tables is ridiculous. Average table had one or two tighter players, 3 maniacs, and myself.

I couldn't believe the action floating around those tables. Sad that middle handed games like that are by far my weakpoint, and always have been
(I can handle myself well heads up or three way, and when there's nine+ people around the table, I excel... when a few people get up though, is when I start floundering... can't quite get the hang of re-valuing hands, etc. etc.)

Maybe I'll dedicate some time to getting the hang of this six max nonsense, as these would just HAVE to be intensely profitable.

[GimmeDaWatch]

A "new game" meaning you always used to play the full ring games? Ive played the 6 max tables a little, and it does take some getting used to. For one thing, b/c alot of hands are heads up or 3 way, youre going to get bluffed at an swful lot, and that fact coupled with the blinds coming around more often is going to grind away at your stack alot quicker than playing 9 or 10 handed. I still play Stars alot, and the Party players are FAR more inclined to try and push you out of pots and make closer to pot sized bets when they bluff alot of the time, but that also makes them easier to trap. Also, the 50 BB buy-in makes you pot-committed far easier, and its the decent/not great hands I have that give me some trouble, as I dont want to get pot-committed calling largish bets with a pair of Kings/jack kicker and the like. Definitely takes some getting used to, but I think if you hang in there in 10-20K hands you should see things turn around. You using Pokertracker, by the way?

[TerraUbrett]

"I still play Stars alot, and the Party players are FAR more inclined to try and push you out of pots and make closer to pot sized bets when they bluff alot of the time, but that also makes them easier to trap."

Why play Stars at all? Everyone who plays at stars is so tight it's like pulling teeth to get money out of them, Party is a cash cow. Correct me if i'm wrong, but don't you want the players trying to push you out of pots and get paid out? I think the players at Stars are actually attempting to learn the ins and outs of poker, whereas a lot of party players are crazy and "gambling for fun".

[SpiderMnkE]

I play 6 max... and have yet to see greater than a 4 buyin downswing.

This has been 4 tabling for a few weeks. about 44 hours... 175 table hours I think.

This isn't a lot of data... but a 10 buyin downswing sounds insane!

[GimmeDaWatch]

Ya, obviously Stars is far tighter, but their tournies and software are vastly superior, so I jump around. To the monkey_man, when I was playin on the Party full tables last year alot, I went up about 60 buy-ins pretty steadily, then hit a string of awful beats, and losing 10 buy-ins WILL happen if you play long enough (at Stars, it would be faaaaar less likely). It may seem insane if its never happened to you, but when the play is real aggressive and you happened to be getting sucked out on, the buy-ins can vaporize pretty quickly. As I said before, I've lost my stack 5 times in the space of a few hours.

[GimmeDaWatch]

Out of curiosity Snoogins, how many buy-ins are you down?

[SpiderMnkE]

I had a 40 minute stretch once where I lost 3.5 buyins.

I took 3 2/3 outer beats in a row for stacks. That didn't phase me... because I knew I was getting my money in with the best of it. So I guess I can imagine that happening 3 times in a row. Haha... that would certainly be crappy.

I guess it will happen at some point... but it can't happen that often.

I just hope it doesn't happen right off the bat when I jump to the $50 games this week.

[Wayfare]

The variance is high. The $50 games can be just as easy as the $25's although I have met some tricky players. Since you have such a wide range of tables to play at, there really is no reason to sit with the ones who know how to play.

I suggest that you play fewer tables at the $50 until you get your multitable system adjusted. Since I play primarily for relaxation, I still only play two at once. Three tires me out, and four is just too much for me to play well.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
(I can handle myself well heads up or three way, and when there's nine+ people around the table, I excel... when a few people get up though, is when I start floundering... can't quite get the hang of re-valuing hands, etc. etc.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I am totally with you there. I feel that my best game is 3-way, with heads up and 4-way in a close tie for second. I also can play well on a full table, as long as I leave when I am feeling impatient (which I almost always have the discipline to do). However, 5 to 7 players seems to mystify me. I never seem to beat that game.

I think it is because I use two very different skills. In the full game, I am just patient, I wait for good cards, and I pound with them. There is always somebody who catches well enough to come along, and it makes up for the few times that I have a very good hand but someone else has the nuts.

In the short-handed games, I am basically playing the players, and my cards are much less important. I shift gears well and seem to be able to keep my opponents off balance consistantly.

But in the middle games, either I run into an aggressive player who keeps pushing me off my middling hands, or I get a good hand, bet, and win just the blinds. I can't seem to take advantage of the over-aggressive players like I can in the short games, because there is too often someone else playing along, as well, who likely has a real hand.

Any advice at all is appreciated. Does anyone find these games to be their strength?

[RoyalSampler]

I am up 28 buyins on UB and in my first 4 hours at PP, went down 6 buyins. Aces just wouldn't hold and I wasn't playing my A game. Variance can be huge when your aces get overcalled every time! If you haven't played much online and this happens it would be terrifying. If things don't turn around, you could start at the UB micro levels. 1c/2c and 10c/25c to build your confidence and prove to yourself you are a winning player. This is why I started at UB. Now I think I am starting to get PP to work for me. Monkey, what * buyin are you using? You sound like you have a very strict plan, like I do (although occasionally I jump up for a one off).

[SpiderMnkE]

I am on the 20 buyin plan. I actually have a totall roll of $1444... but only 970 of that is at Party. The rest is hanging around at UB. So once the party roll is at $1000 I bump to the $50 game.

I play 4 tables of the $25 game. I make between 5 and 6 BB/hr. This is like 70 hands per hour per table I think.. I'm not sure.. that is a guess... anyway.. between $10 and $12 an hour.

I'm not currently using my poker tracker. Don't ask me why. The answer would be laziness, except that I keep very close records and create spreadsheets and charts and post it on my website so I can check it from anywhere. So maybe it isn't laziness. But somehow it is.

I'm not sure what my plan is when I bump up. I think I'm going to just start off 4 tabling right away.. because I've watched my friend play and it looks pretty much the same.

If I drop 4 buyins right away... I'll probably cry and move back down. Hopefully I jump in on a hot streak and can build up a couple buyins to play with. As if 20 isn't safe.. haha.

I don't know if that is really a plan.. I think it is just what a poker player is suppossed to do. I am just sticking within the proven parameters that I read about on the forum.

[RoyalSampler]

Yup I'm living by 20* buyin too. Bit further to go to get to the 50's than you, hopefully sometime next month. It's not so much that I set these rules because I believe poker should be regemented, but that I feel comfortable if I apply dicipline.

[Snoogins47]

In response to the questions...

Well, when this was posted, I was down about 4 and a half in the span of about 2 hours... played about 2 more hours, and I made back two of those.

I figured that it wasn't some horrifically bad downswing, as I've burned through more buy ins than that in an NL homegame before.

And sadly, I haven't made the jump to PT yet.. this is sort of my first jump at "seriously" playing. I've played for about two years, live homegames 3-4 nights a week, occasional casino jaunts, and then I started grinding out micro-limits after cashing $1.50 in a freeroll.

I started keeping some notebook stats on the micro stakes, but then sadly deviated from it.

That initial freeroll money turned into $300 in the course of a whole lot of hours in the span of about 2-3 months, and I felt it would be best to continue my little journey by moving up again.

Only been on Party for about three days now, just experimenting, getting my feet wet, seeing what games I'm fit for, getting used to the software, etc. I was back to taking down some stats (not nearly as useful as pokertracker stats, but I was taking hands played, hours, money won, BB/hr, BB/100, etc) but in three nights of playing I've had three or four disconnects that messed up the stats that party keeps on hands, flops seen, etc (and I usually just did a wrap up after my sessions)

And note: I didn't jump straight into four tabling. I started with 2 10 handed games open, played that for a while (as I'm fairly used to playing multiple tables, between my micro stakes stuff and my old freeroll habit, I'd often have three or four different softwares open at once ;P) then hopped on six-max and played two tables of that.

What was mentioned earlier is quite true... at Party, especially six max, the aggression is somethin else. And also like was mentioned earlier, it's very easy to get pot committed in that game. I found, much like I always found in the shortstacked homegames I've played, that I might drop a few buy ins pretty quickly, but once I get my stack up to 2x the buy in or more, my game improves immensely, and I feel 3x more comfortable. Last night, this is what happened. I had two hands NOT get sucked out on, had about $60 in front of me on one table, and then patiently worked that up into the lower triple digits, while the other table I kept floundering right around 1 buy.

I'd continue rambling, but it's time to hit up the real job ;P

[TerraUbrett]

You say the variance is high, but I have an experienced friend who's plays 3/6 limit and he says that the variance is much higher in limit and that by staying in the $50nl rooms my variance should be no more than 3-4 buy in. The only downside to this is there is more money to made playing in the 3/6 limit rooms.

[excession]

for goodness sake get PT, use the gametime windows and the new auto-rate features

anyone who doesn't is playing blind (and whilst shutting off the targeting computer and using the force make have worked for Luke Skywalker, as I'm no Jedi I only play sites that I can use with PT)

[lefty rosen]

I played this game the first time in months for 1 week 2 weeks ago and the games were relatively tight during the day. The variance wasn't much. Infact it was the toughest games around if you didn't fold JJ against a big raise you were being dominated...... So the variance was next to nothing... My bad I thought you were talking about full ring games. The short games are why the full games are now full of Sklansky clones......

[Snoogins47]

Started off this session with a bang, ended up nearly doubling up with QQ, and then lost it all in one hand..

I won't bore you with the details, but dominated hand + runner-runner heart redraw + $100 pot = not a happy Snoogins.

But oh well, I'll keep getting my money in with the best of it. And yeah, I plan on picking up PT in the next few days actually.

[Snoogins47]

To reply, and for an update... this session continues to be brutal.

Cost myself a couple of bucks on a mistimed bluff or two, but these seemed like prime opportunities, and I was able to get away easily on the failures.

Big issue here: Lost 3 major pots that I was a pretty big favorite in tonight, and the rest of the night has been pretty quiet.

I'm not upset, tilting, etc... but I'm just disappointed so far. It's disheartening to me to see people talk about how they never have losing sessions here, biggest downswing they've seen is 4 buy ins, etc.. because at this point, the variance seems ridiculous.

This is a combination between game conditions I'm way not used to plus some suckouts, but it's one of those times that it's hard to look past the horizon and see the winning side of the world, especially when the past hour I've barely got cards good enough to take to the flop, let alone to take to the felt and get sucked out on. Not to mention the fact that my previous year + of results both online at lower stakes, and at homegames, are being pushed to the back of my mind, and I'm beginning to doubt my abilities, which is far from good for the bankroll.

What can I say... it's tough to see a bankroll, even one I could replace without any problem at all by taking a bit of a paycheck, just float away like this, after it's been painstakingly built over months. I gotta get used to this whole "moving up" thing, I guess.

[SpiderMnkE]

-6.5 buyins in 2.5 hours at $50 NL is quite possible when you are a bad player 4 tabling like SpiderMnkE.

[wdbaker]

This always works for me, play tighter than you ever have before (only Pocket Pairs cheap and Ax in midlate to late position cheap, on the little and big blind play other hands that you might normally want to play from other positions), take 10 seconds to think before you push all in(is there a straight or flush on the board etc..., if your not comfortable then throw it away, its to draining to lose when you knew it was staring you in the face, think carefully about going all in with anything less than a set), loosen up only when you have been able to successfully play tight and not start sneaking extra hands in, don't cheat yourself (you should be in the 13 to 18% range, if more you are either on a run of good cards or you are not playing tight, so tight your ass cheeks smoke when you walk from the friction /images/graemlins/laugh.gif ). Once you know that you can do it then you will have gainded some confidence in yourself in your ability to follow through. Begin to add a few hands carefully chosen that are not easily dominated.

Quit holding onto hands after the flop unless you know there is enough money in there to double up and you should only need one more to make your enemies curse you, otherwise throw that crap away.

Don't steal, Do try to semi bluff when there are 3 or less in the pot and you have position. Do it when scare cards hit. Don't do it all the time, if they bet back or just call and you know your likely beat then check and fold. Let them think what they want, who gives a [censored] when they call you down later thinking your bluffing, they won't be smiling when you throw down trips or better, you will be laughing then.

Its all in your head, get yourself straightened out and you will feel good and know that you are doing what is right.

look forward to seeing you on the 100 buyin NL soon, I'll be the one busy counting your chips /images/graemlins/laugh.gif just kidding...

One Street at a time
wdbaker Denver, Co

[Snoogins47]

Well, today is day three, and I feel completely and 100% comfortable at these tables now.

Quite simply, what happened the past few days were my freaking out over an adjustment period.

I was at the point where every bet, every call, every raise.. I felt uncertain. I had no idea how these tables played, I had no idea how these players played, and likewise, had no idea how to play myself. Well, had an idea obviously, but didn't have any "feel" for it, ya know?

I always get that way when I first try a new game. Couple that with a few tough beats and I'm on the verge of an emotional breakdown! ;P

Results are irrelevant as of yet, but I'm feeling at home in these games. I'm glad this only took me about 1k hands, and that it comes in time for a day off of work ;P

This is the first time in probably 9 months that I've had a blow to the confidence or bankroll of this magnitude, so I guess I'm not in the worst shape hehe.

That's probably my worst game flaw right there... I can adjust moderately quickly, but "taking shots" for me never works, because my first session or two in new environments never seems to fare well ;P