Plan for Success (reach $3/$6 by May)

[EdSchurr]

Here is my plan to reach $3/$6 by May of 2005. I'm posting it because I wouldn't mind any errors pointed out to me, and I thought some other people might find it interesting.

I figured out how many BB I need per week, with the assumption that a month is always 28 days. The intention is to start in September with college. Using BB as a measure is good because it lets me adjust how long I play given certain conditions: if I improve to mutlitabling and better winrates, I'd be able to play less and still reach the goal per week, for example.

How many BB do I need to reach 3/6?

I have 240BB at .25/.5
I need 600BB at .25/.5 to play .5/1
I would have 300BB at .5/1, and need 600BB at .5/1 to play 1/2.
I would have 300BB at 1/2, and need 600BB at 1/2 to play 2/4.
I would have 300BB at 2/4, and need 450BB at 2/4 to play 3/6.

That's +360BB to .5/1, +300BB to 1/2, +300BB to 2/4, and +150BB to 3/6.

That adds up to me needing 1,110BB total to reach 3/6 with 300BB at 3/6*.

Breakdown:

Over 8 months (Sept. '04 to Apr. '05):
I need 139BB per month.
Thus, I need 35BB per week.

At a—I think—conservative 1BB/hour that's 35 hours per week playing one table. I think it's reasonable to expect I'd learn to multitable and maintain that rate, so I could actually probably play less to begin with since I'd make it up later on; however, 35 hours per week isn't too much so I won't bother to speculate which could end up with me being short.

So there you have it. Pipedream?

* I'm using "xBB at y/z" just to make it clear what the BB is worth.

[dedmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
35 hours per week isn't too much

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, wait until you get into the real world. That 35 hours is just about forever.

Plan looks good though, good luck on it.

[bisonbison]

35 hours per week is, trust me on this, insane. It is a massive grind and you will learn to hate all that is good and holy in the world. For most people, 20 hours is doable. Beyond that, you really can't speculate until you've tried it, because it is crazy-making

Online, you can play roughly 60 hands/table/hour.

20 hours per week at one table is 1200 hands. Most micro posters can make 2BB/100 with a decent effort. That's 24BB/week. I'd adjust your schedule accordingly until you know you're winning or can multitable. You may find you can only manage 10 hours per week, which is still quite a bit, but if you can play 2 tables, then it's still 1200 hands.

[detruncate]

Good luck, man. Keep us updated. If you don't mind a little advice... don't focus too much on meeting your weekly/monthly goals except as they relate to time spent at the table. Feeling that you're "falling behind" will almost inevitably lead to anxiety, which just makes everything that much more difficult. The money will come in its own good time. Build your schedule around what you've actually earned. Above all, enjoy yourself along the way.

[EdSchurr]

Thanks, I'll consider that. I won't make adjustments until a week or two into September.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
At a—I think—conservative 1BB/hour that's 35 hours per week playing one table

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know if you are any good or not, but those numbers seem very conservative. I assure you within a month or so as you continue to improve you will move up to at least 2 tables. Do this as soon as you think you can handle the speed. Not only will it greatly cut down the # of hours you have to put in but it will also help you play a more steady game (youll get bored less often and make less loose call, specifically preflop).

Good luck

Mark

[detruncate]

I usually average closer to 50 hands/hr/table when all is said and done. Must be good at choosing slow tables.

There's no doubt about the "crazy making" part though. 35 hours might not seem like a lot, but it can get difficult to make yourself sit down day after day. Add in study/post game review/forum time and it's more like 50.

Be flexible. Just play as many hands as you can comfortably fit in and go from there.

[bisonbison]

I usually average closer to 50 hands/hr/table when all is said and done. Must be good at choosing slow tables.

I have 19,000 hands at .5/1 in 300 hours, for a rate of about 63/hour.

[EdSchurr]

Actually, I can already play two tables reasonably well. But since I've just started taking on SSH coming from WLLH and a bit of TOP (and probably less than 200 hours of play in the past year) I want to take it slow for a while. I expect to be playing two tables within the month (not just because I think I'll handle it fine, but also because I might otherwise go insane). I don't want to give myself unreasonable hope so I'm trying to be especially conservative.

But you're right... multitabling will help a lot. Maybe I'll wait for a month before I reformulate my plan at Bisonbison's suggestion. I might only need 18 hours per week.

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually average closer to 50 hands/hr/table when all is said and done. Must be good at choosing slow tables.

I have 19,000 hands at .5/1 in 300 hours, for a rate of about 63/hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're closer. PT tells me that I average 56/hr. Guess I've always just used the 50/hr. shorthand and not questioned it too much.

[bisonbison]

You're closer. PT tells me that I average 56/hr. Guess I've always just used the 50/hr. shorthand and not questioned it too much.

Pointless derail:

I wonder how much our own speed of play affects this rate. I think I probably make about 5% of the total betting decisions at a 10-handed table, and I'm guessing I make them slightly faster than average, despite 4-tabling.

Let's say your average hand involves 40 betting decisions (# pulled completely out of my ass), I'd be making 2 decisions per hand.

If the average decision takes 10 time units and I take 8 time units, then the average time without me in a hand = 400 time units. With me in the hand, the average = 396 time units.

In the time an average player at an average table plays 10,000, I would be playing 10,101. Those one hundred hands would be worth somewhere around 2BB. How much would I gain if I thought longer about every decision?

Isn't math fun?

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]


Isn't math fun?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes... and so are pointless derails. I studied philosphy in university, and have spent a fair amount of time writing fiction. Pointless derails have accounted for a signficant amount of my life. Don't have the math skills to translate it into BBs though.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]
The intention is to start in September with college.
At a—I think—conservative 1BB/hour that's 35 hours per week playing one table. 35 hours per week isn't too much



[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to college and going to play 35 hours a week?!? Good Lord man!!! what happened to drinking?

Geez, kids and their priorities these days...

--Zetack

[bisonbison]

You're going to college and going to play 35 hours a week?!? Good Lord man!!! what happened to drinking?

I know. I replied to some thread in the general forum. What's the point of college? You drink, you try to get laid, you wake up, you go to class. Rinse and repeat. Poker can fit in as a hobby, but, dear god people, you don't get those years back, ever.

If you're in college and you're playing more than an hour or two a day, you're going to want to confront your social anxiety sooner rather than later.

[MicroBob]

5 freaking hours a day.,....EVERY day. While you're in college????

If you take a couple days off a week then you're playing 7 hours a day.


Study for your classes for crying out loud.
And Surely there is some sexy co-ed that is worthy of some of that time.

[afk]

Your plan looks good, but jeez man. Focus some of that energy on school. I'm in school too and I can manage an hour a day comfortably, some can do more, some can do less. I think that what I do in college will be more fulfilling in the long run than poker ever has a chance to be. Basically - don't sacrifice your school for poker.