Inside-straight draw: SSH advice making sense?

[Grisgra]

Question re the example on p.154-155 of SSH.

You hold KT in the BB and see the flop with the SB and two limpers (4 small bets).

Flop is K75 rainbow, no clubs; SB checks and you bet with top pair.

In the example, he suggests that by betting (and obviously I have no problem with that advice), you are protecting your hand against a limper that might have 98 /images/graemlins/club.gif, that it would be wrong for him to call looking for a six on the turn.

You think? Seems pretty close to me -- if he calls, he's got 4 outs on the turn.

Odds to hit the nut straight on this raggedy flop is 10:5 to 1. Seems to me that in the typical loose, passive game he's got the implied odds to call.

10.5 times, he loses a small bet when he misses (assuming the other limper doesn't raise and neither does the SB). The last time, he hits the nut and collects at least two small bets from you on the turn and probably four from you on the river, assuming you follow his advice about not folding the river for one bet (i.e., he reraises your river bet.)

Even if the SB and other limper immediately fold on the flop (unlikely if you ask me), he's winning 11 bets 1/10.5 times and losing 1 bet 10.5 times . . . meaning calling there is likely +EV.

Or am I missing something? Obviously if people are aggressive postflop, or don't chase hands, then it's a bad call on his part. But I think it's very unlikely that both the limper and SB would just fold on the flop in your typical small-stakes game, meaning that you're winning more than 11 bets by the river when you hit.

[CORed]

You are correct that the player with the inside straight has just about the right implied odds to take one more card off. However, it is still better to make him pay for that card than to give to him for nothing. You will get the extra bet 10.5 times for every time he hits. If there are other players with weak draws, you will get their money too. This is a case where even if it's correct for your opponent to call, it's still correct for you to bet. Keep in mind that most of the money that he will collect when he hits doesn't come from you.

[Lost Wages]

You are correct that, from the point of view of the limper, if everything goes perfectly then it is essentially an EV neutral call. The problem is that things rarely go perfectly.

You are not closing the action, what if the other limper or the SB raises? What if the BB is betting a set or 2 pair instead of a King? Then even if you make your hand on the turn you could still lose on the river. What if a scare card comes on the river and the BB check-calls the river instead of being so kind as to bet so you can raise him? etc.

Lost Wages

[Al Mirpuri]

CORed,

What about being a dog to the field and not just being ahead of the guy with the inside straight draw? After all, the collective outs of the field probably makes you a dog to them.

[Grisgra]

Oh, I agree you need to get him to pay for the card - I said that in my post. I just think that there are going to be some game textures where you're more confident that the SB or other limper will call vs one of them raising you, and in that instance it'd be worth it (as inside-straight guy) to draw to the nuts.

Now if it weren't the nuts, of if there were a two-flush on board, then it probably moves to the "bad call" category. Just thinking that this might be a marginally good call for him here in some situations, that it's not black-and-white.