party $215 sit and go

[curtains]

There are 5 players left and you have KQo UTG. The blinds are 100-200. Everyone has from 1000-2500 in chips, except for the BB who has 3500. The players seem pretty normal thus far. What is your play?

[Eihli]

there is a big difference between 1000 and 2500. how much do you have?

[curtains]

Im an idiot...I have 1500, forgot to post it.

[stupidsucker]

hmm.

5 people KQ.. I think muck might be the best idea. unless you only have about 1k chips, then consider pushing. The problem with KQ is.. the likely callers are AK, and AQ. a lower Ace is not likely to call you at all.

I have made worse pushes then this, but I am going with muck. Raising it to 6-700 is an option if you have a big stack, but I still wouldnt do that.

[allenciox]

let's look at it mathematically... playing $200 SNG, most people here are very aware of the gap concept --- so it widens. The hands that dominate you are:

AK (16)
AQ (16)
AA (4)
KK (4)
QQ (4)

for 44 possibilities out of 1225 for any given hand here. Assume anybody will call you with one of those hands, and you are a 3:1 dog on average in those cases, there is about a 14% chance that somebody will call you in those cases.

The following hands do not dominate you, but are likely to call. Let's assume, since this is $200 SNG and I assume you have a "tight" image, these are the only hands that call:

AJ (16)
JJ (4)
TT (4)

in these cases, figure you are on average a 6:5 dog, or on average for all the hands, about 30% chance that you would win, 70% that you would lose. So about 20% of the time you will be called.

The arithmetic is easy --- if you make a slight simplifying assumption that at most one person will call your all-in bet based on these assumptions, your expectation is:

.8(300) + .2(.3)(1800) - .2(.7)(1500) = +138 TC.

The probability of being eliminated is 14% on this hand. 80% of the time, you will increase your stack by 20%, and put you close to the middle of the pack. I would push.

[Indiana]

Now here is a thoughtful post....Your numbers appear to me to be a little off though...for example, there are 1326 total hands in holdem and you have 1 of them leaving 1325...Also, when you say AK(16) or KK(4) , you are overcounting because you are not taking into account the fact that you hold KQ....I am working on a revision to your post...

Indiana

[Indiana]

Before anyone says anything, I realize that he is right about the 1225, that is my mistake....but still wrong about the rest...

[J.A.Sucker]

Make it 500. Pushing is also fine.

A poster made a comment about people folding weak aces if you push. This would actually make it better to push, since it's favored agaisnt your KQ. The thing about raising 500 is what happens if someone goes over the top of you. This is decision time, since you'll be crippled if you fold anyway. Therefore, I'd push if my opponents are tricky and would go over the top with hands that they wouldn't call all-in with. If they wouldn't look me up (either with or without a hand), then I make it 500.

[Indiana]

Correction to allenciox's post:

The assumptions don't change all that much if we fix the numbers...the major violation, however, is the calculation of the expected value...It should be the sum of two pieces and not three( because 3 violates the properties of a prob. dist)...The answer should be :

.8(300) - .2(.7)(1500) = +30 TC....And this is close enough to zero that it doesn't really make much of a difference if you push or fold, at least when you look at the math...This goes back to my original post, you really have to think about how tight your table has been...If really tight then you can pop it or push, otherwise you might want to just lay it down...

Indiana

[allenciox]

Nope, sorry, Indiana... you have left out the chance that you bet, they call, and you win...

Three pieces:

1) They don't call
2) They call, you lose
3) They call, you win.

You are of course, right about double-counting the AK and AQ, my bad.

[Indiana]

allen,

Think about it and the probabilities you are assigning to each piece....According to your logic here is what we have:

1) Piece #1 has probability .8
2) Piece #2 has probability .2
3) Piece #3 has probability .2....

These add up to 1.2 which is impossible...You are making a simple mistake...Piece 2) and Piece 3) are the same thing...You are including them twice...Thus your overall result is wrong....Just define the random variable X to be the amount gained...Then with prob .8 you win the blinds and with probability .2 you lose some money...So we should have two pieces not three..

Indiana

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
Make it 500.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand the rationale of a raise to 500. If you do that you're pot committed, so you should just push. If you don't push then I guess limping is the next best option, which just shows that pushing is the way to go.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about it and the probabilities you are assigning to each piece....According to your logic here is what we have:

1) Piece #1 has probability .8
2) Piece #2 has probability .2
3) Piece #3 has probability .2....

These add up to 1.2 which is impossible...You are making a simple mistake...Piece 2) and Piece 3) are the same thing...You are including them twice...Thus your overall result is wrong....Just define the random variable X to be the amount gained...Then with prob .8 you win the blinds and with probability .2 you lose some money...So we should have two pieces not three..

[/ QUOTE ]

You are mistaken.

This is allenciox's original calculation:

[ QUOTE ]
.8(300) + .2(.3)(1800) - .2(.7)(1500) = +138 TC.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing is counted twice, and nothing adds up to 1.2, as you suggest. You probably don't read it right.

0.8 is the probability of a fold, and 0.2 (prob. of getting a call) is devided into 0.3 prob. of winning, and 0.7 of losing. Very simple.

[Gramps]

Without doing any math...

That seems like a close one, but I'd probably muck it. If the blinds went up the next hand (forcing me to make a play next orbit after paying 450 in blinds), I think I'd push. If not, you still have some time to be patient. If the BB was being a bully already and pushing > 1/2 his hands, I might push as well, since (given his relative position to my immediate right) he may take away most opportunities I'd have to steal blinds acting first (much more likely to be forced into an all-in calling situation which could suck if I don't get any hands for a couple of orbits). But...since the description is that everyone is still playing "normally," then that's not a consideration.

A loose big stack in the BB I'd be more wary of in spots like this, and the shortest stack in the BB I'd be more wary of (who might make a stand with Ax, etc.). I really don't want a coin flip or 3:2 dog situation for all/most of my chips in this spot...

...but if you err in being a little too aggressive in making pushes like this, IMO it's much better to make those kind of mistakes than playing too passively (as long as you're not super-reckless).

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 5 players left and you have KQo UTG. The blinds are 100-200. Everyone has from 1000-2500 in chips, except for the BB who has 3500. The players seem pretty normal thus far. What is your play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would probably raise to 550, because it will win the blinds almost as much as an all in. Also I am confident enough to know that I can come back should somebody come over the top of me and I have to fold. This also works because I will also raise to 550 with a big pair and obviously want somebody to come over the top of me.

[Indiana]

PrayingMantis,

First, thank you very much for taking the time out to reply...Here is my logic in statistical language (Please, tell me where I am wrong) :

Let X= the random variable of how much we GAIN (which can be neg. or positive)

Now here is the probability distribution:

X = 300 with probability=.8

-.7*1500 (or ) with probability=.2

Thus E(X)= 300*8 + -1050*.2 = 40

Either X is the amount gained, or it is the amount lost, but you cannot define it as two different things...This is why he is wrong.

Please reply and thanks in advance,

Indiana

[Indiana]

Fukin hell,

You are right, I need to combine the 30% and 70% for the gain when I am called...My apologies...Part misread, part just being stupid...

Indiana

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There are 5 players left and you have KQo UTG. The blinds are 100-200. Everyone has from 1000-2500 in chips, except for the BB who has 3500. The players seem pretty normal thus far. What is your play?

[/ QUOTE ]
I would probably raise to 550, because it will win the blinds almost as much as an all in. Also I am confident enough to know that I can come back should somebody come over the top of me and I have to fold. This also works because I will also raise to 550 with a big pair and obviously want somebody to come over the top of me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, you raise to 550. Button pushes back at you. You have 950 to call, there's 1500+300 in the pot. You're getting 2 to 1 odds to call. How the hell do you fold?

You're really going to put him on QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, and nothing else that has you coinflipped?

I really don't like a raise for a third of your stack preflop..

[J.A.Sucker]

I'm not necessarily pot committed at this point with K hi. It depends on what the other players are doing, and when the blinds are going up. Limping is never right in these spots.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you raise to 550. Button pushes back at you. You have 950 to call, there's 1500+300 in the pot. You're getting 2 to 1 odds to call. How the hell do you fold?

You're really going to put him on QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, and nothing else that has you coinflipped?

I really don't like a raise for a third of your stack preflop..

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if you like it because I do. I still have almost 5BB left and that is still a reasonable amount. The button or any other players don't come over the top of me enough to make it unprofitable to not risk my entire SNG on KQ. I will have AA, KK, and other good hands some of the time too and double up.

What about this situation. I raise to 550 utg, Button raises all in, and the BB calls. I can easily fold that. I AM DOMINATED. Had I gone all in, one of them would have called and I would be out of the tournament.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 2 to 1 odds to call. How the hell do you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to pick on your answer, but I think it's an example of incorrect thinking in these spots. E.g., because the pot is laying you proper odds (counting every tournament chip as having equal value), I must call - it is correct to do so. Your goal in playing a SNG is to have the highest ROI for your entry fee. Sometimes making a pot odds call, and making a play that gives you the highest ROI expectation involve different courses of action.

Let's take this hand and make a few assumptions to illustrate. Blinds 100/200, you have 1700, button has 2,000. You have KQo UTG, you raise to 550, button comes over top of you all-in. The button is a little more aggressive than average, and could be doing this with a number of pairs JJ or less (as well as a number of hands that are a huge favorite against you). You are faced with the choice of calling off your last 1150 chips, or folding and having 1150 chips still to play with (4.25 X the BB if you pay your blinds on the next two hands - still a bit of a gap to steal blinds with, etc.). If you call, it's 1150 to win 2550 - you are getting 2.2:1 on your call.

Let's assume that based on button's probable range of hands, you can expect to win only 1/3 of the time (we'll eliminate any possibility of ties). So...2/3 of the time you call and lose - you're out, done, finished - you get $0 for your efforts. 1/3 of the time you call and win, you'll have 3700 with 4 players left (the BB big stack at around 3300 after this hand, and the other two players who we'll say have 1500).

Based on pot odds, you're getting 2.2:1 to call, and you win 1/3 of the time, so it is correct to do so based on pot odds. However...the real consideration is what your expected ROI is based on either course of action.

If you fold, 100% of the time you will have 1150 chips with 5 players left (3300, 1500, 1500, 2450), and blinds at 100/200. So, take your expected ROI in this scenario...

...and compare it with the situation where you call. 2/3 of the time you call and lose - $0 back...so...that only leaves the 1/3 of the time you win. 1/3 (expected return when you have 3700, the blinds are 100/200, and the other players have 3300, 1500, and 1500).

...and this is where things get a little fuzzy...I would argue that for a skilled player, the expected ROI is higher in the scenario where you fold...but it would take another complex calculation to do that (or some chip count deal-making software - but I don't have access to that)...maybe others disagree...

...my point is that it's this expected ROI analysis that matters in these situations - it's more complex than "do I have pot odds to call"...

[Eder]

I dont like to call because of pot odds late in a SnG...busting is never good...

btw I muck KQo 5 handed here...rather raise J9 on the button