Just Like Mason!

10-20 Holding 7-4 off in the BB. Folded to the button who raises. SB folds and I call.


Flop 8-6-4 rainbow. Button bets and I call


Turn 8-6-4-3 no flush draw. Button bets and I call.


River 8-6-4-3-2. Button bets and I call.


Button turns over A-K off and my pair 4s is good.


My analysis was that one of us was behind, but that if I was behind I had 9 outs and if he was behind he had six outs. Should I have raised the flop or turn?

you should have folded before the flop.


Kris

I think it's worth a call, all the way.

His best possible hand A-A is about a 2-1 or maybe 3-1, favorite against a 7-4 heads up. Pot odds were 3.5 -1. I don't recall the exact odds. Hope someone can clarify.

"His best possible hand A-A is about a 2-1 or maybe 3-1, favorite against a 7-4 heads up."


Wouldn't the button's best hand be a seven or four as one card, and a playing kicker as the other? Or worse (for the big blind) yet, pocket sevens.


Either way, to weigh the preflop calling odds so heavily in the decision, wouldn't you need someone all in or nearly so?


Tommy

Somewhat similar to Sklansky's 7-3 suited problem.

His best hand against my specific hand would likely have been something like 7-7 or A-7. the bet came from a steal position so I wasn't really thinkin about the odds when I threw in the two chips.


Thanks for the response, I thought about both the best hand and later bets right after I posted my reply.

richardf,


I just ran a million hands on Caro's Poker Probe and As-Ac is a 5.5 to 1 favorite over 7c-4h. And it has a lot more betting power post flop.


Note that AA either wins when the 7-4 flops nothing and gains on most flop betting sequences when the 7-4 flops something.


Regards,


Rick

Thanks, I think I just took A-A's percentage against a full table vs 7-4's.


I thought the button was on a steal with two random high cards and just called.

richardf,


I strongly agree with Kris (Goat). You fold because even against a button raising maniac, you have little defense. If the buttton were all-in you could call with those pot odds.


Regards,


Rick

richardf,


I believe you are missing something here about playing poker. Just because you may only be a slight dog is not the issue with a hand like 7,4o. Your analysis is more likely to be correct for a preflop call for all your chips in no limit or an all in call in limit. But it is not a good call in limit poker when you both have adequate chips. The reason is that your hand does not play well. You can see that for yourself from your indecision to raise the flop or the turn. Not only that but your opponent can take free card on the turn if he chooses becuase you don't bet your weak holding. Why would you want to put yourself in such a situation? The fact that he is or may be stealing is irrelevant when you hold a 7,4o out of position, heads up and the pot is small. Holdem is not a game of fancy playing but a game of big cards and position.


Vince

Vince,


Great post and I will take it heart against most opponents.


This opponent, I knew would bet almost 100% of the time when checked to heads up.


I was willing to put in a small bet to catch exactly what I caught. A pair which would be, I think, better than even money to win and a chance to get better and check raise the river.

richardf,


You will catch a pair on the flop approxametly 30% of time. Your opponent will also catch a pair 30% of the time. When you don't catch a pair you must fold. When you do catch a pair and your opponent catch's a pair you are almost certainly behind. If you catch a pair you improve on the turn or river ~ 2 in 9 times. So does your opponent if he catces a pair. I could go on and do a better job but I ask from an EV point of view is it worth playing headsup with these kind of odds with such an inferior hand?


Vince

"This opponent, I knew would bet almost 100% of the time when checked to heads up."


Odd how this is seen as a reason to get involved, when shouldn't we prefer that the opponent always check behind us?


Tommy

I assume you're talking about Mason's A-J hand where he called all the way. A-J plays a lot differently from 7-4. Also, Mason was in a 3-way pot and caught top pair on the turn, a top pair which could not be overcarded on the river.

I think you know about preflop but I will add this.


Once you flop a pair with this flop, I think the best play is to check-raise and bet the turn.


You can afford to take some heat if he 3-bets with the gutshot and all but most likely you have the best hand. I mean, if you are not going to play it aggresively on the flop with a flop like this, then when are you?


Also, check-raising the flop and betting the turn prevents your opponent from sucking out on the river as he should fold most of the time after your turn bet. It also camouflages the times when you hold AK or a pair and flat-call preflop and check-raise the flop.


Nicolas

Well then keep callng with it, it's not my money you'll lose by playing badly out of the blinds. You can blow off your money if you think this is the right thing to do. I won't object.


Kris