kgrad5
08-29-2004, 01:31 PM
i got into a friendly discussion with someone i was at a table with at stars recently. the situation was this, the board was A K Q J 10 with no flush possibilities and 3 players left in the hand (i had folded pf) and someone bet the river and they both called. the river bet did not add anything to the rake. one of the players in the hand then proceeded to yell at the better asking him why he would bet when the nuts are on the board? so i was bored and the cards were cold and i decided to jump to the betters defence.
my position is this. the bet on the end has absolutely no risk at all, it does not add to the rake so there is no chance of his bet costing him any more money. however there is a slight, albeit very small chance that someone might misread the board, or misclick and fold this river. thus his bet has at WORST lost him nothing and won him nothing, however, in the best case, lets say 1 time in 1,000,000 someone folds he has made himself half of whatever that person has put into the pot, lets say it would be on average 2.5 big bets since a board that draw heavy would tend to get a little big so 5 BB isnt so unreasonable for a person to invest. even though this is so rare to happen the bet is +EV so i would make it every time. the fellow i was debating with said that he would never make this bet because he feels the chance someone will fold is so small and it would be an insult to their intelligence to bet.
what do you guys think of this? would you bet it? ive seen a lot of hands where people fold when the board is the nuts..
my position is this. the bet on the end has absolutely no risk at all, it does not add to the rake so there is no chance of his bet costing him any more money. however there is a slight, albeit very small chance that someone might misread the board, or misclick and fold this river. thus his bet has at WORST lost him nothing and won him nothing, however, in the best case, lets say 1 time in 1,000,000 someone folds he has made himself half of whatever that person has put into the pot, lets say it would be on average 2.5 big bets since a board that draw heavy would tend to get a little big so 5 BB isnt so unreasonable for a person to invest. even though this is so rare to happen the bet is +EV so i would make it every time. the fellow i was debating with said that he would never make this bet because he feels the chance someone will fold is so small and it would be an insult to their intelligence to bet.
what do you guys think of this? would you bet it? ive seen a lot of hands where people fold when the board is the nuts..