Jim Brier Cardplayer problem

Congratulations on a heck of an article Jim. Good to see someone is putting in hard work into their columns. It definitely made me rethink my strategy in some situations.


However, the last example bothered me.


"From a 10-20 game:You are in the big blind with the 10 6 and get a free play after an early-position player, a middle-position player, the button, and the small blind all limp in. There is $50 in the pot and five players. The flop comes 9 7 3, giving you a gutshot-straight draw with a backdoor-flush draw. You check, the early-position player bets, and the middle-position player and the button both call. The small blind folds. What should you do?"


Jim suggest folding, since you are only getting 8-1 and you are 11-1 against to hit the gutshot. Eventhough, you have a backdoor flush draw, Jim believes that the fact that the straight draw is not to the nuts and it could be counterfeited on the river offsets that fact.


Thts fine.....Ill reluctantly buy that assumption. But haven't we forgotten about implied odds here? Certainly you plan to get a few best when you make you hand don't you? This has to make it at worst a break even call. And what about the overcards. In fact, even a six could be good.


This makes it an easy call in my book.

JV, SKP made a post asking the same question about the same hand about 10-12 topics down if you wanna check it out. Was a good thread.

http://www.twoplustwo.com/cgi-bin/newforums/mediumholdem.pl?read=48055

"JV, SKP made a post asking the same question about the same hand about 10-12 topics down if you wanna check it out. Was a good thread."


Thanks! I missed it the first and just went to looky. Deal me all the way in with Brier this time. A fold holds up to every kind or reason, even the one based on nothing more than ... Over the long range, having done it every which way, over and over, and trusting what feels right to be better than what feels bad, when I fold, I feel good, when I call, it feels bad. Those feeling, I believe, do correlate to expected profit/loss, in a Pavlov dog way.


Tommy

Tommy, let me put it to you this way - in the form of an old chinese proverb.


"You can't check-raise bluff the turn, if you folded on the flop"

Absolutely agree. When the call completes the action, you only have to put in one bet. See what the turn comes. I think there is enough to call.


Probably the hand will be folded on the turn (unless an 8 or a club comes).

Hi JV:


I agree with you for precisely the reasons you give. It is an easy call. In fact, you should probably call again on fourth street if a non-scary card hits.


Best wishes,

Mason

Are you setting up a bluff on the river?


Also, is a ten an out?

"Over the long range, having done it every which way, over and over, and trusting what feels right to be better than what feels bad, when I fold, I feel good, when I call, it feels bad."


im reading what JV and mason said and im thinking, yeah implied odds and all that makes sense, but then im reading what you said and at first im thinking no tommy no, youre missing the easy math of it all! and then im thinking about how i feel when i check-call here and that's an awful feeling that feels like cold-calling with QJo or something. yuck.


that's why the only play that makes sense to me here is to BET the flop. that's the only play that feels good to me. (what's with all this checking stuff??)