Bad beat on PP right now

[zuluking]

80k. Wow, someone is going to be very happy tonight.

[RJCarter]

i assume you already know, but the qualifying low hand is now 8888. still, some 2-4 player is going to have a hell of a party tonight.

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
i assume you already know, but the qualifying low hand is now 8888. still, some 2-4 player is going to have a hell of a party tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, up to 83k now.

[Blarg]

Seems kind of stupid...or maybe stupider...now. Getting quad 8's beat is next to impossible. I guess Party want to see some lottery-like numbers.

Oh well, it works in lotteries. The bigger the numbers, the more people go crazy buying tickets. Maybe they'll get a lot of customers when people start seeing and hearing about million dollar jackpots or something.

[TiltHappens]

http://www.tilthappens.com/badbeat/?amount=140000

It's simple, but it works!

[MarkL444]

I was wondering.
Does the bad beat jackpot attract a lot of the gambling types away from the regular tables? If so, would it be +EV to play at those tables (negating any possibility of winning the jackpot) and pay the extra rake to play against these players.

Sorry if this was posted before.

[sin808]

I would guess that for your average everyday joe, he would prefer to play at a jackpot table. Most people aren't aware and/or aren't concerned too much with rake and jackpot drops, etc. they just wanna play. with the chance to hit the jackpot it's golden, who cares about rake. I also believe this to be even more true the larger the jackpot becomes (meaning it attracts even more people towards it). Most of my friends don't play poker, and this is the way they would approach it when given the choice between playing at a jackpot table or not. So take that fwiw. I wonder more if the jackpot concept itself has a psychological affect that influences the recreational gambler to take even more chances...or 'I wonder if the idea of the jackpot makes the fish even fishier'.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

The players I deal with most often are fellow lodge boys. They are recreational players who believe they are good, but do not track wins/losses and most truly suck. They LOVE jackpots and even added one to the lodge tourneys. They also buy tickets for the 50/50 drawing and think they are getting a deal. Did I mention how much I like playing against them?

[Saint_D]

All I know is the took the .5/1 tables off the bad beat jackpot tables. I was making good money on those tables. People who wanted to start slow, but have a shot at the jackpot...

My tiny bankroll can't hack the bigger limits, so I guess I am out of that pool of fish. It was worth it while it lasted.

[Blarg]

The local Southern California casinos are flooded when their jackpots get big. You can see their signs advertising the jackpot amounts from the freewy, and when it gets big, it seems like you have to park in another part of the world if you want to play.

[TiltHappens]

Big jackpots put butts in the seats. People love progressive slot machines!

[triggers_06]

wow its at 164k right now....

[bdk3clash]

Has anyone done any sort of EV analysis of playing on the Jackpot tables versus non-jackpot tables? Let's assume the play is equally good/bad on jackpot and non-jackpot tables.

We're just losing $0.50 per won pot, right?

[Blarg]

Well, this isn't very scientific, but if you play 55 hands per hour and win one of every 10 hands, that's 5.5 x .50/hr = $2.75/hr. That's quite a tax on a $2/4 game.

Personally, I wouldn't include the chance of a jackpot pay-off in the math. The chance of beating quad 8's is so small you might not do it in years. But a few bucks an hour is something I can really feel right away.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
and win one of every 10 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

you wont.

[0evg0]

Yeah, if you're playing anywhere near a decent % (15%) I don't think expecting to win that many is a very good assumption. Just a thought. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bdk3clash]

Yeah, but I don't personally need to have quad 8s lose. I can beat them, or just be at the table when it happens.

[Blarg]

Good luck.

[bdk3clash]

I'm just curious what the expectation per hand is. For all I know you're right--I'm just curious about the math.

[SuitedSixes]

Can you still not import Jackpot HHs to PT?

[Blarg]

I guess it would be variable, depending on how many people are competing for it at any given time and how big it is. So I suppose your expectation would be highest, all other things being equal, in the early morning hours when not many people are online.

The chances of quad 8's being beaten, though, are so incredibly remote that I wouldn't alter my behavior in the slightest because of jackpots. I wouldn't really do it for much easier hands to beat than that.

[Emoney]

i thought the jackpot drop was .25? and has it hit since the requirement became quad 8s?

[Losing all]

We know it's remote, how remote is the question. The number of people playing on the site has no bearing on your odds of hitting it. do you see why?

The table share is around 4K now, a decent stake for most of us around here. I don't know if that makes it +ev yet(doubt it), but at some point it will be. WHEN is the question..

[ptrack pat]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you still not import Jackpot HHs to PT?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was a patch to handle the bad beat jackpot tables back in June.

www.pokertracker.com/patch.html (http://www.pokertracker.com/patch.html)

[Nick709]

almost at 186k now. These tables are great they draw all the gamblers it is definitely worth the 50 cents. Plus the off chance you hit it....

[Jdanz]

I've never made more money at 2/4 then in the last couple days at the jackpot tables. The play is so bad it makes the regular games look rock solid. The .50 cents per pot is nothing, i'm above 5/100 BB right now, it's not statistically significant, but you'll just have to make a judgement call on whether these games are soft enough to overcome the .50 on pots won which as mentioned before isn't that many if you're playing tight. The jackpot is frosting.

-JDanz

[Jdanz]

70 percent of the jackpot goes to the players, therefore the jackpot is 0 EV on one hand, when the jackpot is (10/7)* the average jackpot. At any point higher then 10/7 * ave. jackpot it's plus EV. However that doesn't really tell the whole picture as it's incredibly rare to hit even if over the long haul it's plus ev. The fact is none of us will probably ever get to the long haul. If you have an infinete bankrole then go +EV if short term results matter then that .50 cents you'll actually see as opposed to some positive but phantom EV.

-JDanz

[meow_meow]

Since no-one seems to want to do the math on this, I thought I would try to get the ball rolling by trying to calculate the odds of quads over quads, both players with pocket pairs (8's or better), which I assume is, by some margin, the most likely jackpot-winning scenario:

probability of a player getting dealt pp (8's or better) =
(7/13)x(3/51) = 0.031674
probability of a player getting a different pp, given than another player has been dealt one = (6/13)/(3/49) = 0.028257
probability of exactly two players being dealt appropriate starting hands (some math omitted) = 0.062266 -seems reasonable
probability of an appropriate board (both remaining cards of both ranks hitting board) =
5* (4*3*2*1*44)/(48*47*46*45*44) = 2.56964x10^-5

Odds of a given hand providing a jp qualifier in this way, given 10 players dealt in:
very close to 1 : 265000

I think my math is ok, and I'm starting to think about how to incorporate boards that make quads over quads with only one pocket pair, and then maybe on to straight flushes.

In case anyone cares, the "math omitted" in step two involved multiplying the 1st pp prob x 2nd pp prob x no pp prob^8 x permutations (10 choose 2 = 90)
Also, I haven't taken into account instances where more than two players have high pp's preflop, though these should add no more than ~10% (proportionaly) to the odds given.

So....starting to think about when the jp might become +EV:
average share when JP is hit is 7%
chance of hitting JP is better than 1/625000
cost of drop per player per hand is less than 0.05$
EV of JP when JP=100k is better than 0.0112$
JP should be +EV before it reaches $446,000 (how far before depends on those still unknown probs.)

Anyway, feel free to pick apart my math - seven years since 2nd year stats. /images/graemlins/smile.gif