Jim's CP article on backdoor draws

Once again, a very good article, Jim. Highly instructive. On the other hand, I wouldn't be posting unless I had a question or two about one of the given examples so here it is.


You wrote:


Hand No. 5 ($10-$20 game): You are in the big blind with the 10c6c and get a free play after an early-position player, a middle-position player, the button, and the small blind all limp in. There is $50 in the pot and five players. The flop comes 9 7 3 (rainbow with one club), giving you a gutshot-straight draw with a backdoor-flush draw. You check, the early-position player bets, and the middle-position player and the button both call. The small blind folds. What should you do?


Answer: Fold. There is $80 in the pot and it costs you $10 to take off a card. Your current pot odds are 8-to-1. Your four-outer to a straight is an 11-to-1 shot. Unfortunately, your backdoor-flush draw does not turn this into a call. The reason is, your gutshot is not to the nuts and/or can be counterfeited at the river. One of your three opponents could have J-10, which is a common limping hand, giving him a bigger straight if an 8 arrives. The other problem is that an 8 may arrive on the turn but then get followed by a 10, 6, or jack at the river, making a larger straight or the same straight possible in one of your opponents’ hands. These seem like remote possibilities, but in my opinion they negate the value of your backdoor-flush draw."


My Comments:


It seems to me that this is an easy call given that the betting is closed. If the 8 arrives, you will presumably go for a checkraise as the guy to your left is the probable bettor on the turn. If he bets and gets raised, you can always reassess whether you are in deep doo doo to JT.


But it seems incorrect to fold on the flop getting 8:1 on the theoretical possibility that you could be drawing dead to JT or will be run down on the river. Notice also that you have a backdoor straight draw in addition to the backdoor flush draw. That is, if a 5 or a 4 comes on the turn, you will have turned a doublegutter. If it's the 5c or the 4c, you have got a 15 outer. Also, if the turn bet by the flop bettor clears out the field, hitting a ten may be an out for you. Thus, a flop call could have you going to the river headsup with an 18 outer. Obviously, that's the best case scenario (or close to it). I am not hanging my hat on those idealistic possibilities but they do play a part in deciding what to do on the flop.


Calling the flop also allows you an opportunity to get creative on the river similar to the play I described in a thread that is now buried entitled "resisting the semibluff urge".


Let's suppose the turn is the Qc which therefore gives you 12 outs. You check. Dude to your left bets and the other two fold.


I reckon that you have 12 actual outs (possibly 15 if the three tens are good). But you also may have a minimum of 6 good bluff cards (i.e. offsuit Aces and kings) and possibly 6 more soso bluff cards (i.e. offsuit Jacks and Tens).


That is, if the board comes 9d7h3cQcAd and you bet the river, it's difficult for the flop bettor to call if he has what his bets so far have been representing which is a pair of 9's.


I would call the flop here.


All comments welcome.

I agree. Easier to call when it completes the action. Take a card.

You are making an implied odds argument. Your idea is that you will collect more than enough money on future betting action when you hit to make up for your current shortfall in pot odds.


The problem is that your implied odds argument has to not only cover your current shortfall between your pot odds (8-to-1) and your drawing odds (11-to-1) but has to also cover the times you hit and lose plus the times you hit and only get half the pot.


"If he bets and gets raised, you can always reasses whether you are in deep doo doo to JT."


But the reality is that if you catch your miracle card you will be paying off all the way to the river in most cases and not folding because you fear JT. You will lose additional money when this unlikely scenario unfolds.


"..if a 5 or a 4 comes on the turn, you will have turned a doublegutter."


If a 5 or a 4 turns up, that would put 9-7-3-4 or 9-7-3-5 on the table which means a 5 or a 4 (respectively) gives you a seven-high straight but anyone else with just a 6 in their hand has the same straight so you only get half the pot instead of the entire pot. This hurts your implied odds.

But I think you can take a card when the action is completed. You're not always playing for half

a pot, plus there is a backdoor flush possibility.

…to count the backdoor flush as at least one out (this is an estimate based on Abdul’s essay on sucking out). Now add this out to the four gutshot outs, and figure the ten is a partial out which probably balances the fact that the gutshot is not quite to the nuts.


If you have five outs you are getting 8.4 to 1. That may seem not quite enough with 8 small bets in the pot but as skp points out you will usually get in a big trapping checkraise if you make your gutshot on the turn and this would seem to swing it. At worse, calling would be a tiny mistake. Thoughts?


~ Rick

It is probably a very close decision whether to call or to fold. I think you really have to stretch things here quite a bit to believe that calling is clearly right.


When I wrote the article, I wanted a mix of hands to present on this subject of backdoor draws. I put in two where calling was right, two where folding was clearly right, and one which was close. skp happened to target the close one which most good players would instinctively do.