QQ heads up at the river

[SoCalPat]

What's your call on the end?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls.

Flop: (5 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (5.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero ????

Final Pot: 7.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 7.50 BB, between MP3 and Hero.</font>

[Entity]

Why did you check? I would call and fully expect to see a K (KJ, KQ, K8, etc.), but I'd like to think I'd be wrong 15% of the time. I would have felt much more comfortable, especially given MP3's passivity, betting and folding to a raise.

Rob

[DeathDonkey]

Fold, you beat only a bluff, its a small pot, you were drawing on the turn and didn't get there.

-DeathDonkey

[Brian]

Call. Expect to lose often but not often enough to where calling isn't +EV.

I take it you called since it says pot 7.50 BB? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I mean you feel like a jerk when he turns over the King and you were drawing to 6 outs (or less) the whole time, but making "good folds" just really isn't how you beat these turds at the low limits. The fact that he called me on the Flop and Turn does not lead me to believe he has a King or a 9. In fact, anything but. He probably would have raised a 9 on the Turn, and a King usually says something by now, but not always. The most likely candidates are a weak gutshot draw, middle pair (a Ten), or a 1-card Diamond draw. Maybe he got there on the end, maybe he didn't, maybe he had you beat all along, who knows. I'm paying the 1bb though.

-Brian

[SoCalPat]

Brian nailed it.

Opponent turns up JTs (but not diamonds, can't remember what) for middle pair. MHIG.

Heads up against this scary board, I'll check it down. But against an opponent who has shown no aggression to this point, I'll never fold for a bet. If he hit his hand on the river, more power to him. But if you're making folds like this with frequency, you're losing a bunch.