30-60 Live KK hand

[Lawrence Ng]

Weak semi-tight passive kid on a bit of a semi-tilt after losing 2 hands in a row open raises. I am to his left and have Red Kings and 3-bet. All fold back to him and he just calls with a big sigh. Kid knows I haven't played a hand in hours and am playing very tight.

Flop comes 10-10-6. Suits are no importance. He bets 30 very fast. I call.

Turn comes 2. He fires 60 again very fast. I fold.

All comments welcome.

[ike]

Either you know something you left out about either his playing style, how he behaves when tilted, or the meaning of the possible tells you mentioned, or your fold was kinda silly.

[Michael Davis]

I know you are trying to say he has a big hand, but can't that big hand be QQ? The other KK at worst? This fold seems insane. There must be more to it.

-Michael

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you are trying to say he has a big hand, but can't that big hand be QQ? The other KK at worst? This fold seems insane. There must be more to it.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree the fold is insane /images/graemlins/grin.gif, but the big hand here isn't QQ or JJ, it is JT or QT.

i believe the kid showed his JT or QT or KT /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ike]

Uh, aren't we talking about a semitight passive kid who openraised?

[Lawrence Ng]

Nothing about his playing style except I never saw him so gung ho on any flop before. It was basically his tell of shooting the money so fast into the pot that gave away to me that he had a 10 in his hand.

He's a reasonably good player and he knows I'm pretty tight aggressive and won't 3 bet without a pocket pair. The fact that he is semi-loose passive, then getting very aggressive on that particular flop was a big tell also.

[Michael Davis]

Yes, but he's also described as semi-tilt and having lost two hands in a row.

This fold is barely acceptable against the tightest nut peddler in the world, let alone a player of this description.

-Michael

[ike]

He'd have to be totally unaware that his opponents were trying to read him (the phrase "strictly retarded" was used recently) for shooting his money hard into the pot while making an unexpected flop bet to be a reliable indication of strength. From the type of player you describe I'd be more inclined to read this as weakness, in fact. Also, passive players don't usually have tens in their hands when they raise. On the other hand, you've now described him both as semi-tight passive and semi-loose passive. Your reasoning on this hand seems disjointed and self-conflicting, I think you overthought yourself and folded the winner.

Side note: You won't 3bet without a pocket pair? Sounds like a leak.

[ike]

My point was that he probably doesn't have a ten not that you should fold. Sorry for the confusion.

[Lawrence Ng]

QQ or JJ is a big possibility,

but let's just say I planned to play this out if I put him on a smaller pair. So I raise the turn and now he re-raises me back. Now I am pot committed. Do I still call the river if he bets and I don't hit my king?

So folding I lose $120, but I trust my instincts and am about 70 percent sure he has a 10.

If I play it out the way I do and lose, then it's $330 I lose.

but let's say the kid does only have QQ or JJ and I raise the turn with KK and he folds right then and there. I only stand to make $180 - but again, I am only 30 percent certain.

I don't quite remember all the math involved, but I'm pretty sure a fold here is right or marginally wrong at best.

[ike]

This analysis makes no sense. You really need to read/reread Sklansky's Theory of Poker.

[Michael Davis]

"QQ or JJ is a big possibility," and "I don't quite remember all the math involved, but I'm pretty sure a fold here is right or marginally wrong at best."

These statements are way inconsistent. There isn't any rule that says you must raise. There's also no way he's folding either of those hands, and he shouldn't. Just because you don't feel confident enough to raise here doesn't mean you can't call him down, especially since he rates to be drawing dead some of the time (and just calling will keep him following through on his bluff).

-Michael

[Lawrence Ng]

Ok, here's what really happened.

I raised the turn, he re-raised me again and I just call. On the river an airball came, he bet and I called.

He showed me 9-10 suited.

This is one of those hands where I clearly felt I was beat. I can't explain it, but on the turn I just wanted to muck my kings so bad that I almost released it. Believe me, when it's HU I don't feel like mucking KK very often. Then at the last second for some reason I decide that he might be bluffing me out so I cry call knowing 90 percent well he had a 10 in his hand by the river.

Now, did I play this bad? No I did not. I played it based on whatever information I was granted at the time about this kid and his styles. I could not put him on 9-10 suited with an open raise. A-10 suited would be more like it.

Now I am not the best technical player in the world, but as Doyle Brunson states there is something about a poker player - call it instinct, a sixth sense, an innate subsconsicous reaction, that says "hey, fold your damn hand - you are beat" or "raise cuz he's got crap and you can bluff him." I don't know how to put this in +EV, but I have used this process to really let a lot of great hands go, and contrary have also used it to make some very gutsy plays. I do not do it very often, nor does that process come up a lot, but when it does it's quite reliable. I can't explain but I trust it. And this example is just another hand to prove it so.

All comments welcome.

[Michael Davis]

You are allowed to make plays like this, but you better be damned sure they're right.

And, honestly, there's no way you can post some major laydown or ridiculous call and get legitimate responses, because the play looks awful. It is, as you point out, a technically incorrect play that you make on feel. Fine, go for it if your feelings are right enough of the time, but there's nothing anybody on a message board can say. If you call the river with 7-high because you are sure your opponent has 6-high on an AAKK2 board and you are right, you are still going to flamed on this board, rightly so.

-Michael

[ike]

Uh, thinking you're behind after he 3bets the turn is a lot different from thinking you're behind when he leads the flop. You ended up being right but your analysis was horribly convoluted and, barring past evidence that his confident body language is a reliable tell, I maintain that a a flop fold is insane. No one said you ever have to raise or that you have to call down if you get reraised, but just mucking this flop for 1 bet is ridiculous.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, here's what really happened.

I raised the turn, he re-raised me again and I just call. On the river an airball came, he bet and I called.

He showed me 9-10 suited.


[/ QUOTE ]

Frankly, I like this story more than I like the one that ends, "I folded when he bet the turn". If this kid is tight/passive and not on tilt, I might like the story to end, "I folded to the turn three-bet" but against a player on any kind of tilt, I can't see letting this go (unless his brand of tilt causes him to become super-passive).

SpaceAce

[Apocalypse]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't explain but I trust it

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't trust it, since you decided to raise the turn anyways cuz "its the right thing to do". In my own experience, i play at least 99% of the hands in the manner we discuss on this forum here, but there is a slight minority of the case where instinct as you call it kicks in hard. My advice, if you have it, follow it. Screw all the rules, all that you have been taught in order to be a 'good pokerplayer', and follow the line your gut tells you to go. Try to analyse your instinct afterwards, to sharpen it for future purposes but learn to trust it almost unconditionally (save some important criticism). I have been starting to and since that point, my no limit results have improved revolutianary, and i save or gain myself some extra money here and there down the line in limit holdem. Sure you can post a hand like that, and will get flamed for it (like happenened to me here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=headsup&Number=693965& Forum=,,,,,All_Forums,,,,,&Words=&Searchpage=4&Lim it=25&Main=693965&Search=true&where=&Name=4613&dat erange=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=& bodyprev=#Post693965 ) /images/graemlins/grin.gif, but u were there, u 'knew' it was like that and thats all theres to it. If you have the gift, learn to use it. Hope this helps,

[rory]

Reads become important when the decisions are close. In a big pot, if you never switched a play that is usually a call into a fold, regardless of your read, you couldn't be far from wrong. Small pots are when you can use your reads, because if you make a mistake it is not such a big one.

In version of the hand where you folded on the turn, by the river there will be 6 BB in the pot. It is going to cost you 2 BB to call down so you are getting 3:1 on your money. This is one of those close situations where you can use a read and if you happen to be wrong it is not a big deal.

Also you have added folding equity. If you are wrong and you had him beat, the kid wins a little pot which won't put him off tilt. But if you are right and he has you beat, the kid wins a little pot with his monster which may make him lose his mind.

-rory

[sfer]

If you're going to raise the turn and not fold to a 3-bet there, you're much better off just calling the turn and river.

[jimswarthow]

The problem is you also characterized this player as (semi-tilting) if I have gotta youngster hotshot who knows how to play and hes taken 2 beats in a row and I think he MIGHT be on tilt I would check call him all the way. However because I AM a youngster hotshot I know observers will categorize my minor displays of emotion as (tilting) and i can then maintain my game and win extra bets.
Your fold, given the way you described the situation was premature.....

[jimswarthow]

All info that would have been useful in the original post. your post should have read (There are times where it may seem appropriate to value call but I fold because I just KNOW that I am beat sixthe sense blah blah blah).
My reply would have been yeah that happens to me occasionally and I lay it down even when its pretty big. Sometimes I fold the winner as a result but thats OK as this is a pretty rare occurrence:)

[34TheTruth34]

you were there and I wasn't, but when somebody fires chips into a pot quickly and with a lot of strength, it usually means that they have a weak hand. Isn't that one of Mike Caro's classic tells? I think I would have called down after seeing this.

EDIT:

just saw the results (how did I miss them the first time?) Anyway, I think the raise on the turn is horrible. But if you make it, at least fold when he three-bets.

[IlliniRyRy]

[ QUOTE ]
as Doyle Brunson states there is something about a poker player - call it instinct, a sixth sense, an innate subsconsicous reaction, that says "hey, fold your damn hand - you are beat" or "raise cuz he's got crap and you can bluff him." I don't know how to put this in +EV, but I have used this process to really let a lot of great hands go

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. I really think people that get married to making decisions only based on pot odds are ignoring a very important attribute that only winning players have, and that's instinct.

[surfdoc]

Why not raise the flop here and see if you can define his hand a bit? If he 3-bets and leads the turn you may get a chance to have your "instinct" confirmed at a little cheaper price and then lay it down.

[turnipmonster]

why on earth would you raise the turn?

--turnipmonster

[andyfox]

Well, there's something perculiar about his play. He's got to expect you to bet that flop, yet he bets into you. And he bets in a way (firing very fast) that wants to catch your attention. Usually strong bet means weak, but it sure seems mannered (i.e., double-fake) here. So he either is running a snow job or he wants you to raise. I'd just call him all the way down (unless, of course, I caught a king).
Might as well fold the kings pre-flop if you're gonna play 'em like this.

[Gabe]

You said somewhere in the thread that you were 70% sure he had a T, so folding is wrong, but raising is wronger.

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, did I play this bad? No I did not.

[/ QUOTE ]

You could sometimes make a case for raising the flop, and you could sometimes make a case for raising the river, but there is almost never a case for raising the turn (unless you knew him so well you could fold to a 3-bet and even then you're better off just calling him down and sometimes spiking a king). So I respectfully disagree with the above statement. I think you did play it bad. The sooner you admit this, the better.

[Kevin J]

Does this mean 4 betting is the wrongest?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
QQ or JJ is a big possibility

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why on earth would you fold?

[ QUOTE ]
So I raise the turn and now he re-raises me back. Now I am pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot committed? I hate your fold precisely because of what you say above - QQ or JJ are a real possibility (and quite a few other hands if this guy is tilting as you say). When he 3-bets, it is much more likely that he has a Ten. If that is the case, how on earth are you pot-committed here? Have you counted the bets?

Your logic does not follow. There's enough of a chance that he has a ten that you folded just to his turn lead (you thought there was a 70% chance you said), yet had you raised and he 3-bet, you'd think there was enough of a chance you were in the lead that you would call the 3-bet? Let me give you a tip. If you think it's 70% that he has a ten when he bets the turn, you should think it's higher than 70% when he 3-bets.

This is so simple. You call. You're allowed to call, you know. Raising the turn seems horrible here. You let him get away from QQ/JJ (well, maybe not those hands, but definitely other worse hands) and pay the maximum (since for some reason you want to fold for one bet but not for three) when he has a Ten. If you're going to raise, raise the river.

This is sad. It's hard to say whether your play or your alternate plan was worse.

[Ulysses]

OK, so it was a trick question. Cute. Why did you raise the turn? And why did you call the 3-bet?

[ChicagoTroy]

Chicago Troy wishes El Diablo would stop sugarcoating. Some of us are trying to learn.

[onegymrat]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't explain it, ...

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can, or should you be expected to. You continued with the hand because it was headsup and KK is just too pretty to toss. I think your read was great and only those very experienced, profitable players would have caught it, but like most players, you went against it anyway.

I know many veterans will agree that at times, after thousands and thousands of hours of play, when something looks awfully wrong with the situation, then it probably is. Instinct DOES work, but to try to teach it would be very wrong. It's like telling someone what it feels like to have an orgasm, you just can't do it quite descriptively as if they felt it themselves. I think you wanted to hear from others that they would have lost the same amount of chips as you.

Nice tricky post, by the way. I would have called him down all the way.