Folding top pair, good kicker with a nice board...

[edthayer]

Hero is MP2 with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, folded to SB. SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop:
K /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to Hero. Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn:
9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked to Hero. Hero bets, SB raises, BB 3-bets, MP1 folds, Hero folds. SB calls.

River:
Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB checks, BB bets, SB calls.

[MortalNuts]

Hi --

Against passive and predictable opponents, from whom a turn check-3bet means at least a set, sure the fold's fine. The problem is that if your opponents would do this basically ever with any two pair, you may have lots of outs, including not just your Qs and maybe Ks, but also 9s or 7s that might counterfeit his hand. You're getting like 11:1, though of course there's a chance it'll be capped by SB, so you only need about 4 clean outs to call looking to improve on the river. And of course if BB is at all capable of doing this with a worse hand than yours hoping to push you out, or SB might have check-raised a newly-acquired flush draw or something -- well, that's bad.

So yeah. Against some opponents I bullet-fold the turn here, but against a decent number I call. If unimproved on the river, I may call but not overcall. That's an easily exploitable line, of course, but generally I'm not too worried about that.

just my 2c.

cheers,

mn

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Against some opponents I bullet-fold the turn here,

[/ QUOTE ]

Bullet-fold is not a term I'm familiar with -- is that like turbo-fold?

[edthayer]

My set-detector was going off when I was three bet, and I don't like the idea of possibly drawing dead on the river, so I folded.

In the end, BB showed a two pair of Ks and 5s, and SB mucked. No set, but I would have been drawing to three queens, which isn't a good deal.

[MortalNuts]

yep. bullet-fold == turbo-fold == you don't deserve to be paid off, so I'm not going to.

cheers,

mn

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
My set-detector was going off when I was three bet, and I don't like the idea of possibly drawing dead on the river, so I folded.

In the end, BB showed a two pair of Ks and 5s, and SB mucked. No set, but I would have been drawing to three queens, which isn't a good deal.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to study your outs better.

You've got 3 7's and 3 9's to counterfeit his two pair, along with 3 Q's. You've got 9 outs, not 3.

Rob

[MortalNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
In the end, BB showed a two pair of Ks and 5s, and SB mucked. No set, but I would have been drawing to three queens, which isn't a good deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The possibility that this might be the case was the point of my post. you were drawing not just to 3 Qs, but also to 3 9s and 3 7s that would have given you the same two pair as him (i.e., counterfeited his hand) but with a better kicker. Thus, if you had somehow known this was his hand on the turn, you would have had an easy easy easy call. It's the possibility that you are drawing dead that makes this call less clear.

just my 2c.

cheers,

mn

[edthayer]

Good point about the board pairing. I rarely consider that. The problem is I have no idea what gives me the better hand, and what lets him fill-up. If the board does pair, can I come out betting on the river?