Bubble in fixed limit SNG

[schubes]

20+2 Party limit HE
The blinds are 150-300

I have 600 on the button. SB and BB each have a little over 3000, UTG has only 395 and is playing tightly.

UTG folds, and I have AQ of diamonds...
Easy fold or should I push all-in?

Does the answer change with AJ or AK suited?

Thanks in advance to any replies!

[La Brujita]

Wow this is a tough one! To tell you the truth I am not sure and I would be curious to hear other opinions.

I probably fold AQs, I definitely fold AJs and I am 60-40 to play AKs depending on folding equity.

Is that the correct line-really no clue!

[parappa]

I'll have a shot.

It's not a nice spot to be in, but note that you're going to have to outdraw UTG with a random hand when it's your BB if he keeps folding. So if:

UTG goes out by going all-in in the bb, you take 3rd. This is the best case for a fold.

UTG folds in the bb and loses to you in the sb, you take 3rd. This is 50/50, right? Both random hands.

UTG folds in the bb and beats you in the SB, he doubles up to 190 and you end up at 365 after your small blind? This is a good situation because he then has to survive his BB one more time. But if he does, he's then the favourite. I think he'll have 380 and have you outchipped so, even if you beat him, he'll have 15 chips and be on the button, while you'll still have to survive your small blind.

But if you push, let's assume that you have no folding equity and it's 50/50 whether you'll win (it must be higher with AQ), I think your chances here are slightly better because at 1200 or 1050, you can survive a round of blinds and see if he goes broke. Plus, there's no guarantee that the muppets with the big stacks won't just fold round to him in his blind.

[M.B.E.]

If you fold, figure that UTG will be allin next hand against either one or two random hands. His probability of busting out sometime in the next two hands is a little over 1/2, call it 55%. If he doesn't bust out he will have you outchipped and it will be your blind.

So if you fold the AQ, your chance of finishing in the money is perhaps 70%. Actually a bit less. However, most of that will be third place.

If you push with the AQ, you should win the hand about 65% of the time, and when you do win you will usually make the money, plus have a decent chance at first or second place. Your stack will be either 1350 or 1800 (17% or 23% of the chips in play), so theoretically, if you win this hand you will have about a 20% chance at first-place money.

Overall I think this is extremely close, so close that it almost doesn't matter whether you push or fold. AJs would be a fold, AKo a push.

[ihaterivers]

Personally I would push on all 3 hands mentioned. If you push both blinds may just fold and you pick up the blinds. If they do call it's likely you will be ahead and if you win you more than double up and now have a much better shot to finish higher than 3rd. It's not like you have a huge lead on UTG chipwise and he could very well pick up a hand the next round and then you are in bad shape when the blinds hit you.

Just one man's opinion...

[schubes]

I'm glad everyone seems to agree this is a tough decision. I was worried I'd be told "he'll probably bust out next hand, stupid, fold!" or "you have AQ, moron, raise!" The trouble is I wasn't sure which one it would be. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I decided to push.
My reasoning was that if I pass up an edge like this and UTG busts out, I will very likely finish 3rd. If UTG survives the blinds, then I am in poor shape, especially since he won't gamble his chips away untill I'm gone. But if I push and win I will have a shot at 2nd or 1st, which seems like it could compensate for the increased risk of finishing with nothing. I was also hoping that the blinds would fold, realizing I wouldn't raise without a good hand in this situation - but this is Party 20+2!

Maybe they took my hesitation before raising as a sign of weakness - My A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is called by both blinds (?!), who checked it down the whole way.

The board comes (K/images/graemlins/club.gif,T/images/graemlins/club.gif,5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif)4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif,5/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB has J/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif
BB has T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif

and I leave thinking I've made a stupid mistake...

[ihaterivers]

You played it correctly and that's all that matters in the long run.